Jompy
@Jonpy99
1/ It's finally time to publish some actual figures from the updated AFV count made by
@HighMarsed
and myself. First thread is on MT-LBs, the humble workhorse of the Russian military, and how it's close to storage depletion.
2/ First of all, here are the prewar numbers, including MT-LBs, in Russian storage. As you can see, after a second recount of prewar storage we found 2,461 MT-LBs in storage:
3/ However, in the most recent footage there were only 921 left.
4/ Here's some recent threads I made on the topic of stored MT-LBs:
5/
https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1766537340552352070
6/
https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1779074647104893076
7/ Although in the prewar count I wasn't so thorough with my analysis, not differentiating between functional and broken hulls (based on visual evidence) and also not trying to locate potential specialized variants, I did take that approach this time around.
8/ The decrease in storage is terrible, proportinally the worst out of all Russian AFV types. And that's no surprise, considering how much it's used and lost by the Russian army in Ukraine. For example, according to
@Rebel44CZ, as of April 8th Russia had lost 804 MT-LBs.
9/ TMB2022 estimated that Russia had over 3,900 MT-LBs in active service, plus another 2,000 in storage. So even if they finally reached 0 left in storage, we'd still see MT-LBs for months at the very least. However, once they reach that point of storage depletion, there's no more replenishment.
10/ There's also some MT-LBs being refurbished at BTRZs, although probably few in numbers and fast to repair because the MT-LB is such a simple and reliable vehicle.
11/ We also didn't find any MT-LB at BTRZs, or at least we weren't able to ID them:
12/ With all that said, let's dive in these updated MT-LB figures. The first base that I want to talk about is the 4990th. Like I said in the previous tweet, it went from storing a quarter of the entire stored MT-LB fleet before the war to being almost depleted at some point in 2022/2023 based on Yandex imagery:
13/ This base went from 658 MT-LBs to 88, of which 3 were cannibalized: prewar vs Yandex footage (second pic includes the cannibalized ones).
14/ The next interesting base, and the biggest one as of latest evidence, is the 7220th, of which I also talked recently. There were 493 MT-LBs there before the war and now there are 342. Prewar vs May 2023:
15/ Another interesting base is the 230th, of which I *also* talked recently thanks to undated Yandex footage at some point in 2023: 156 MT-LBs before the war and then 82. This is specially interesting because this base is localted in Sakhalin island, so you'd expect it wouldn't be a priority when unmothballing equipment due to its remote location.
16/ 230th: October 2022 (nothing removed since 2021) vs Yandex footage.
17/ The last major MT-LB depot left is the 187th, where we haven't get any new footage since May 2022. By then the number of stored MT-LBs had actually increased by 72 units, from 43 to 115 vehicles: prewar vs May 2022:
18/ It looks like the 187th might be a training camp, so that would explain why MT-LBs actually increased there. By now I doubt there's barely anything left.
19/ MT-LB numbers also increased ever so slightly at some other bases: 8 vehicles at the 40th arsenal, 14 at the 243rd base... but nothing worth mentioning, and also old footage by now. And at most artillery bases it's likely that the MT-LBs stored there are specialized artillery support variants, but I haven't been able to ID them.
20/ The most dramatic decrease along with the 4990th was, however, the 3018th/6018th base. Here there were hundreds of pretty well stored and preserved MT-LBs, stored in dry air facilities and covered from the weather.
21/ By March 2023 most were gone, and in the most recent footage of
@Vishun_military there are only 36 left, 18 of which are cannibalized. I can't post pictured because I don't own the footage, but it's terrible in the 6018th.
22/ Besides that, nothing really worth posting here. However, I'll show this bit from the railway hub of the 216th arsenal in June 2023. You can see here that they were about to load a bunch of MT-LBs along with SPGs on a train, either going to the frontline or to some repair plant.
23/ I post this to show that, despite the actual footage revealing 921 MT-LBs still in storage as of the latest available imagery, the actual number is lower, a lot lower IMHO, probably nearing total depletion, specially with the recent Russian rate of attrition thanks to their winter and spring offensive.
24/ And with Vishun's so recent satellite footage of most major BMP storage facilities showing the rate of cannibalization and removal of armor being even faster than I estimated, my estimate of MT-LBs left in storage might even be optimistic, specially considering that we haven't got footage of a lot of the biggest MT-LB holder for half a year or more.
25/ And that's it for now. I would have prefered to post my actual analysis on Vishun's footage, but I don't have the time, so I'll probably first also post BRDM-2, BTR-50 and BMD numbers and then that analysis. Probably all will come out between tomorrow and this Saturday.
26/ BTR-60/70/80 and BMP-1/2/3 won't be released for now. Those are the main effort of the stored Russian AFV count and both
@HighMarsed and I want to wait for that, and possibly also collaborate with
@CovertCabal, just as they did in the past, which was my original inspiration to start researching Russian military storage bases.
27/ Thanks for messing most of the links, Musk.
The U.S. is putting the finishing touches on one of its largest Ukraine military aid packages to date, preparing to ink contracts for as much as $6 billion worth of weapons and equipment for Kyiv’s forces, - Politico
️ It would include Patriot air defense munitions, artillery ammunition, drones, counter-drone weapons, and air-to-air missiles.
"I don't know what the victory will be, I don't know the specific day. I don't know exactly how that will happen. But I know that we have no alternative. Therefore, we must win and we will win", - Zelensky
