Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Olen ollut siinä käsityksessä että venäjälle olisi jo Scalpit ja varsinkin Storm Shadowit paukkuneet jos Yhdysvallat ei olisi kiristänyt Ukrainaa olemaan iskemättä. Lupa on siis käsittääkseni jo aiemmin ollut Ranskan ja Britannian osalta. Nähtäväksi jää miten Biden nyt suhtautuu eurooppalaisten ohjusten käyttöön. Todennäköisesti kaikki mahdolliset rajoitukset mitkä koskee ATACMS:ia koskee myös muita ohjuksia.
 

Venäjän rajut iskut olivat kuin keskisormen osoitus Saksan Olaf Scholzin nololle Putin-puhelulle.

Venäjä ei peräänny eikä Ukraina pelastu puhelinsoitoilla.

Saksan liittokansleri Olaf Scholz soitti ensimmäisen puhelunsa pariin vuoteen Venäjän presidentille Vladimir Putinille kehottaakseen tätä lopettamaan sotansa ja vetämään sotajoukkonsa pois Ukrainasta.

Viikonlopun kuluessa Venäjä vastasi yhdellä hyökkäyssodan tähän mennessä rajuimmista ohjus- ja liitopommi-iskujen sarjoista useisiin Ukrainan kaupunkeihin ja voimalaitoksiin.

Tuossa varsin osuva arvio Scholzin touhuista.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Olen ollut siinä käsityksessä että venäjälle olisi jo Scalpit ja varsinkin Storm Shadowit paukkuneet jos Yhdysvallat ei olisi kiristänyt Ukrainaa olemaan iskemättä. Lupa on siis käsittääkseni jo aiemmin ollut Ranskan ja Britannian osalta. Nähtäväksi jää miten Biden nyt suhtautuu eurooppalaisten ohjusten käyttöön. Todennäköisesti kaikki mahdolliset rajoitukset mitkä koskee ATACMS:ia koskee myös muita ohjuksia.

Le Figaron mukaan tuo pitää paikkansa, tosin siinäkin on oma vivahteensa:

France and the UK previously gave Ukraine permission to strike deep within Russia using their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, according to Le Figaro.

However, The Times reported that the UK had paused deliveries of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine to avoid depleting supplies until strikes on Russia were officially approved.


https://lefigaro.fr/international/j...rofondeur-avec-des-armes-americaines-20241117

Joe Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with US weapons​

By Amaury Coutansais-Pervinquière

Published 1 hour ago, updatedat 8:11 p.m.



The decision comes two months before the handover of power between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who is suspected of wanting to reduce support for Ukraine.

The decision was expected. The French and the British had authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. Joe Biden, after several months of pressing requests, gave his agreement to Volodomyr Zelensky to use American ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, against Russia, reveals the New York Times . The United States "gave the green light to the use of long-range missiles ," a US official confirmed to AFP.

The move is a major shift in the conduct of Ukrainian operations, which reportedly has more American missiles than Franco-British ones. It comes two months before the handover of power between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who is suspected of wanting to reduce support for Ukraine.

According to the American daily, the White House lifted its ban in response to the deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers by Russia. An escalation in the conflict, made necessary by the high losses of the two belligerents. Joe Biden had already authorized, at the end of May, Ukraine to use its HIMARS multiple rocket launcher against Russian territory, but simply to defend Kharkiv, the country's second city, threatened by a significant intrusion by the Russian army.

Several observers saw in the American caution until now the fear of an escalation with Russia. But also of strikes on oil zones that would have destabilized the world market. The ATACAMS strikes could be used to repel an upcoming assault of at least 50,000 soldiers, including North Koreans, in the Russian region of Kursk partly occupied by the Ukrainian army.

 
Tässä vielä tuo NYT:in artikkeli, johon viitattu. Erinomaisen hyvä uutinen, joka tietenkin jatkokysymyksiä tulee herättämään.

Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles​

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.


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A missile is launched from the ground with a fiery trail across a blue sky.

Mr. Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia’s decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight.Credit...John Hamilton/White Sands Missile Range, via Associated Press
Adam EntousEric SchmittJulian E. Barnes
By Adam EntousEric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes

Reporting from Washington
Nov. 17, 2024Updated 1:51 p.m. ET
Want to stay updated on what’s happening in Ukraine? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.
President Biden has authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials said.

The weapons are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops in defense of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, the officials said.

Mr. Biden’s decision is a major change in U.S. policy. The choice has divided his advisers, and his shift comes two months before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, having vowed to limit further support for Ukraine.

Allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia’s surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight, officials said.

Mr. Biden began to ease restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian soil after Russia launched a cross-border assault in May in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Mr. Biden allowed them to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which have a range of about 50 miles, against Russian forces directly across the border. But Mr. Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, in defense of Kharkiv.

While the officials said they do not expect the shift to fundamentally alter the course of the war, one of the goals of the policy change, they said, is to send a message to the North Koreans that their forces are vulnerable and that they should not send more of them.

The officials said that while the Ukrainians were likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops that threaten Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere.

Some U.S. officials said they feared that Ukraine’s use of the missiles across the border could prompt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners.

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But other U.S. officials said they thought those fears were overblown.

The Russian military is launching a major assault by an estimated 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, on dug-in Ukrainian positions in Kursk with the goal of retaking all of the Russian territory that the Ukrainians seized in August.

The Ukrainians could use the ATACMS missiles to strike Russian and North Korean troop concentrations, key pieces of military equipment, logistics nodes, ammunition depots and supply lines deep inside Russia.

Doing so could help the Ukrainians blunt the effectiveness of the Russian-North Korean assault.

Whether to arm Ukraine with long-range ATACMS has been an especially sensitive subject since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Some Pentagon officials opposed giving them to the Ukrainians because they said the U.S. Army had limited supplies. Some White House officials feared that Mr. Putin would widen the war if they gave the missiles to the Ukrainians.

Supporters of a more aggressive posture toward Moscow say Mr. Biden and his advisers have been too easily intimidated by Mr. Putin’s hostile rhetoric, and they say that the administration’s incremental approach to arming the Ukrainians has disadvantaged them on the battlefield.

Proponents of Mr. Biden’s approach say that it had largely been successful at averting a violent Russian response.

Allowing long-range strikes on Russian territory using American missiles could change that equation.

In August, the Ukrainians launched their own cross-border assault into the Kursk region, where they seized a swath of Russian territory.

Since then, U.S. officials have become increasingly concerned about the state of the Ukrainian army, which has been stretched thin by simultaneous Russian assaults in the east, Kharkiv and now Kursk.

The introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops and Mr. Biden’s response come as Mr. Trump prepares to re-enter office with a stated goal of quickly ending the war.

Mr. Trump has said little about how he would settle the conflict. But Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow the Russians to keep the Ukrainian territory that their forces have seized.

The Ukrainians hope that they would be able to trade any Russian territory they hold in Kursk for Ukrainian territory held by Russia in any future negotiations.

If the Russian assault on Ukrainian forces in Kursk succeeds, Kyiv could end up having little to no Russian territory to offer Moscow in a trade.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has long sought permission from the United States and its coalition partners to use long-range missiles to strike Russian soil.

The British and French militaries have given the Ukrainians a limited number of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, less than the American missile system.

While British and French leaders voiced support for Mr. Zelensky’s request, they were reluctant to allow the Ukrainians to start using their missiles on Russian soil unless Mr. Biden agreed to allow the Ukrainians to do the same with ATACMS.

Mr. Biden was more risk-averse than his British and French counterparts, and his top advisers were divided on how to proceed.

Some of them seized on a recent U.S. intelligence assessment that warned that Mr. Putin could respond to the use of long-range ATACMS on Russian soil by directing the Russian military or its spy agencies to retaliate, potentially with lethal force, against the United States and its European allies.

The assessment warned of several possible Russian responses that included stepped-up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, as well as potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.

Officials said Mr. Biden was persuaded to make the change in part by the sheer audacity of Russia’s decision to throw North Korean troops at Ukrainian lines.

He was also swayed, they said, by concerns that the Russian assault force would be able to overwhelm Ukrainian troops in Kursk if they were not allowed to defend themselves with long-range weapons.

U.S. officials said they do not believe that the decision will change the course of the war.

But they said Mr. Biden determined that the potential benefits — Ukraine will be able to reach certain high-value targets that it would not otherwise be able to, and the United States will be able to send a message to North Korea that it will pay a significant price for its involvement — outweighed the escalation risks.

Mr. Biden faced a similar dilemma a year ago when U.S. intelligence agencies learned that the North Koreans would supply Russia with long-range ballistic missiles.

In that case, Mr. Biden agreed to supply several hundred long-range ATACMS to the Ukrainians for use on Ukraine’s sovereign territory, including the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. Those supplemented the more limited supplies of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that the Ukrainians received from Britain and France.

The Ukrainians have since used many of those missiles in a concerted campaign of strikes against Russian military targets in Crimea and in the Black Sea.

As a result, it is unclear how many of the missiles the Ukrainians have left in their arsenal to use in the Kursk region.

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Adam Entous is a Washington-based investigative reporter focused on national security and intelligence matters. More about Adam Entous
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Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades. More about Julian E. Barnes
See more on: U.S. Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, Defense Budget, United States Special Operations Command, President Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin
 
Eli noiden länsiaseiden avulla sekä myötä Ukraina löytää väyliä niille omille ohjuksilleen sekä drooneille joilla on kantamaa reilusti enemmän. Epäilemättä ryssälään lentää samalla kaikkea muutakin jännästi paukahtavaa kun Atacmsit, GLMRS:t ja Scalpit raivaavat tietä. Samalla ryssillä kuluu IT-ohjuksia ihan huolella, harmi että jo viime yönä osui yhteen niitä valmistavaan tehtaaseen ja todennäköisesti lisää vain on tulossa.

Mitäs läksivät.
 
Le Figaron mukaan tuo pitää paikkansa, tosin siinäkin on oma vivahteensa:

France and the UK previously gave Ukraine permission to strike deep within Russia using their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, according to Le Figaro.

However, The Times reported that the UK had paused deliveries of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine to avoid depleting supplies until strikes on Russia were officially approved.


https://lefigaro.fr/international/j...rofondeur-avec-des-armes-americaines-20241117

Joe Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with US weapons​

By Amaury Coutansais-Pervinquière

Published 1 hour ago, updatedat 8:11 p.m.



The decision comes two months before the handover of power between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who is suspected of wanting to reduce support for Ukraine.

The decision was expected. The French and the British had authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. Joe Biden, after several months of pressing requests, gave his agreement to Volodomyr Zelensky to use American ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, against Russia, reveals the New York Times . The United States "gave the green light to the use of long-range missiles ," a US official confirmed to AFP.

The move is a major shift in the conduct of Ukrainian operations, which reportedly has more American missiles than Franco-British ones. It comes two months before the handover of power between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who is suspected of wanting to reduce support for Ukraine.

According to the American daily, the White House lifted its ban in response to the deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers by Russia. An escalation in the conflict, made necessary by the high losses of the two belligerents. Joe Biden had already authorized, at the end of May, Ukraine to use its HIMARS multiple rocket launcher against Russian territory, but simply to defend Kharkiv, the country's second city, threatened by a significant intrusion by the Russian army.

Several observers saw in the American caution until now the fear of an escalation with Russia. But also of strikes on oil zones that would have destabilized the world market. The ATACAMS strikes could be used to repel an upcoming assault of at least 50,000 soldiers, including North Koreans, in the Russian region of Kursk partly occupied by the Ukrainian army.


Scholzilla oli sitten tehtävä, johon Putte vastasi ohjuksilla.
 
Venäläisten reaktio ATACMS-uutiseen on odotettu, ESKALAATIO, ESKALAATIO. Duuman kansainvälisten suhteiden lautakunnan puheenjohtaja kertoo ohjusiskujen syvälle Venäjälle tarkoittavan valtavaa eskalaatiota ja USA:n suoraa osallistumista sotaan joka vaatii Venäjältä jyrkintä vastausta. Herran mukaan Joe Biden on päättänyt tulla muistetuksi Veri-Joena.

Slutsky is confident that US missile strikes deep into Russia will lead to serious escalation​


MOSCOW, November 17. /TASS/. US missile strikes deep into Russian regions will inevitably lead to a serious escalation. This was stated to TASS by the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, the leader of the LDPR Leonid Slutsky, commenting on the report of the newspaper The New York Times that US President Joe Biden has authorized strikes on Russian territory with ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.

"Strikes with American missiles deep into Russian regions will inevitably lead to a serious escalation, which threatens to turn into much more serious consequences. And the Biden administration cannot fail to understand that it leaves the Trump team with the problem of resolving not only the Ukrainian conflict, but also an even more acute one - preventing a global confrontation," the deputy said.

He also noted that officials of the White House administration are refusing to comment. "Biden has apparently decided to end his presidential term and go down in history as 'Bloody Joe.' If the publication's sources are confirmed, this will mean only one thing: direct US participation in the military conflict in Ukraine. Which will inevitably entail the harshest response from Russia, based on the threats that will be created for our country," Slutsky added.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/22426307
 
Harmillista ja epäilyttävää tässä viime yön iskussa on silti se, että Sutsin yhteydenoton jälkeen hän tekee tällaisen haistavittu voimannäytön ennenkaikkea Euroopalle.

Joko bunkkerikääpiö on täysin irti todellisuudesta tai sitten hänellä on varma tieto mitä tulee USA:n pressanvaihdon jälkeen sodan suhteen tapahtumaan.
 

Venäjän rajut iskut olivat kuin keskisormen osoitus Saksan Olaf Scholzin nololle Putin-puhelulle.

Venäjä ei peräänny eikä Ukraina pelastu puhelinsoitoilla.



Tuossa varain osuva arvio Scholzin touhuista.

Kai täälläkin jokaiselle on selvää että Putin haluaa kolmatta maailmansotaa. Länsi kun tulee täydellä voimalla Ukrainan tueksi, putinin laskelmat täydentyvät. Pohjoiskorean läsnäolo ei ole sattumaa, jos jollekin se on vielä epäselvää.
 
Eri ohjusten ulottumia kartalla:

These are the numbers Russians fear most now.

1731874450380.webp

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1731874470725.webp


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Pari yksityiskohtaa tässä kokonaisuudessa jotka saavat varovaisiksi odotusten osalta:

1) taikasana on "limited strikes" eli ei vapaita käsiä vaan rajoitetut iskut joiden kohteet joutunee hyväksyttämään etukäteen Washingtonissa (silti parempi kuin aikaisempi tilanne)

2) käytettävissä olevien ohjusten määrä

Tämä jälkimmäinen rajoittaa tietysti sitä, mitä kohteita vastaan voidaan iskeä ja kuinka ripeällä aikataululla. Pieni määrä ohjuksia ei tietysti muuta sodan kulkua, mutta edelleen, tilanne on parempi kuin ennen näitä päätöksiä.

Toivotaan toki että nyt kun tämä "punaraja" on ylitetty, niin tätä rajoitusta voidaan lieventää kun nähdään että ryssä ei reagoi. Ohjuksia tarvitaan silti paljon, joten mielellään näkisi niitä lisää, erityisesti Yhdysvalloista. Eikä tarvitse tiedottaa etukäteen, parasta olisi olla kerrankin hiljaa ennen kuin iskut alkavat.

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MUOKKAUS: tässä toinen kartta johon merkitty myös kohteita:

Ukraine has ample targets within ATACMS range to choose from. Biden needs to send substantially more missiles so that they can strike as many of these as possible.

Map via @TheStudyofWar


1731875136278.webp

 
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