How long can russia sustain the war?
Here are some calculations to address this question:
Artillery
At the current rate of firing, russia requires about 2.5-4k artillery barrels per year. Including direct losses in battle, the total annual need is approximately 4-5k barrels.
Before the invasion, russia had nearly 17k artillery units in long-term storage warehouses.
Satellite images indicate that at least 10k units have already been removed from storage over the three years of war, aligning with loss estimates.
According to satellite data, about one-third of the artillery in warehouses is irreparable.
By next year, russia may face a shortage of artillery barrels.
To conserve resources, russia will likely reduce its artillery use to around 5k shells per day.
This would extend the lifespan of their artillery by 1-2 years but significantly limit their offensive capabilities.
As an alternative, russia could rely on aerial bombs. However, with the introduction of F-16s, the future of russian heavy aviation is uncertain.
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Tanks
The situation with tanks differs. Russia has sufficient tanks to sustain the war until at least 2027–2029.
However, tank production and restoration capabilities are limited.
Russian tanks suffered the heaviest losses during the war’s first year, as initial tactics relied on large armored columns vulnerable to ambushes.
In 2023, russia increased production and can now supply around 1.5k tanks annually, including restored older models.
Satellite images reveal that 30–40% of stored tanks are beyond repair, often stripped of engines or turrets and left in open storage.
This growing difficulty in replenishing tank losses will gradually lead to equipment exhaustion, but it may take years.
Additionally, russia will likely use any pauses in offensives to rebuild tank forces in the rear.
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Armored Vehicles
The situation with armored vehicles is similar to tanks, but russian stockpiles are not as extensive.
Armored vehicles are lost more quickly, and if current tactics remain unchanged, russia’s armored capabilities could degrade significantly in the next 3–4 years.
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Soldiers
Human resources remain one of Putin’s most reliable assets.
Each year, russia conscripts more people into military service than it mobilizes into the army, maintaining a steady mobilization reserve.
The main uncertainty lies in the willingness of russians to continue fighting.
So far, there are no signs of significant public opposition to the war.
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