tviiru
Kapteeni
Saa ne ajella teitä pitkin kunnes tulevat tuhotuksi. Lucka till!
Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Tilanneraportti 10.03 tapahtumista:
Oho, tämä kartta antaa ihan erilaisen kuvan Kiovan itäpuolen tapahtumista kuin liveuamap.com, jonka mukaan Kiovan itäpuolella on Venäjällä hallussa kaksi kapeaa kiilaa, joista toinen on Chernihivistä vetäytyneet joukot, ja toinen 100 km pitkä Romny-Pryluki -maantietä etenevät joukot. Chernihivin eteläsivun puhdistaneesta vastahyökkäyksestä ei mitään mainintaa?
Taas lajissaan mitä v....? Kenen päähän sotavankien käyttäminen sotatoimiin on hyvästä?
skärdis
Greatest Leader
Kuulee sanottavan, että Venäjällä palataan 90-luvun vaihteen tilanteeseen. Ei palata! Silloin Venäjä oli vielä Neuvostoliiton aikaisessa asemassa, mutta sen jälkeen koko tuotanto ja jakelukoneisto on länsimaistettu. Siis länsimainen malli siirretty suoraan sinne ja kaikki koneet, laitteet, toimintamallit on tuotu suoraan lännestä.
Venäjän omavaraisuus on infran osalta hälyttävän heikko. Ei mitään kotimaista koneiden ja laitteiden tuotantoa, ei edes ylläpitoa.
Huoltovarmuudesta ei ole välitetty pätkän vertaa ja kohta niitetään sitä satoa!
Mikä pahtinta/parasta, kansa on jo päässyt länsimaisen elämän makuun ja kun se viedään pois niin tiukkaa tekee!
Nuijamies
Kapteeni
Siirtävätkö porukan sinne missä on saavutettu läpimurto, eli etelään? Painopistettä sinne ja Ukraina halki? Ei tarvi lähteä yksittäistä suurkaupunkia valtaamaan ja joukkoja sitomaan.
strelailija
Majuri
Ei pidä, missään nimessä. Tämä on ihan hyvä näin.Onhan tämä järjestelmä kusetetaan niin omia kuin vieraita. Tyhmempi voisi tehdä johtopäätöksen, että asioiden pitäisi muuttua.
Kiovassako ne tuhotaan?
stunt cock
Kapteeni
Noihin karttoihin kannattaa suhtautua aina varauksella. Tilanteesta on hyvin vaikea muodostaa tarkkaa kuvaa ja kentällä tilanne ei todellakaan vaikuta oleva ryssille suotuisa. Kalustotappioiden määrä joisena päivänä on ollut hyvin perkittävä, vaikka seuraisi pelkäsrään oryxin listaa. Hyökkäys näyttää olevan jumittunut ja joukkoja organisoidaan uudelleen, mutta miten tappiot korvataan? Ei se niin helposti tuollaisien tappioiden jälkeen ole tehtävissä.
What is a war crime and could Putin be prosecuted over Ukraine?
The ICC wants President Vladimir Putin arrested for war crimes, but South Africa may not cooperate.
www.bbc.co.uk
Veto-oikeus PRKL. Hieman naurattaa että tuo on heidän standardi ja sitä on viljelty joka paikkaa. Jos ne haagiin saadaan kuljetettua, maailmaa kyllä saa muutokset aikaiseksi.
Antares
Respected Leader
Jos ne Yhdysvaltain mediassa esitetyt arviot pitää paikkansa niin Venäjällä pitäisi olla 95-100% hyökkäykseen keskitetyistä joukoista Ukrainan rajojen sisäpuolella. Ilmeisesti reserviä ei ole.
Toisaalta on myös kommentoitu/esitetty valistuneita arvauksia että tappiot olisivat olleet 5-10%. En nyt muista onko tämä kuolleita vai kuolleet+haavoittuneet, tuhoutuneita tai muuten menetettyjä ajoneuvoja vai jotain muuta.
Selvästi ainakin Kiovan suunnalla heillä ei ole suuremmin haluja suoraan hyökkäykseen vaan piiritystä tavoitellaan. Toivotaan että Ukrainan joukot ovat valmiina torjumaan nämä yritykset. Venäjän huoltoon pitäisi myös päästä iskemään tehokkaammin, he pyrkivät tietysti perustamaan ns. forward operating base tyylisiä jakelukeskuksia, jotta tavaran ja polttoaineen jako olisi helpompaa. Muistan nähneeni ainakin yhden kartan johon oli merkitty kolme tällaista paikkaa Kiovan pohjoispuolelle. Se huollon materiaalivuori (POL, ampumatarvikkeet, ruoka, vesi) halutaan tietysti siirtää lähemmäksi niistä lähtöasemista. Ei se tietysti poista tarvetta tavaran liikuttamiselle, sitä mukaa kun sitä käytetään niin sen kuorma-autoketjun pitää jatkaa toimituksiaan FOBeille. Jatkuva materiaalivirta joka sitten hajaantuu omille joukoille jakelukeskuksista.
Toivon myös että ukrainalaiset kykenevät pitämään ne rikotut rautatiet pois pelistä: Venäjän huolto on aina ollut vahvasti sidottu rautateihin, joten jos saisivat niitä korjattua niin helpottaisi heidän joukkojen huoltoa.
Toistaiseksi näyttää että sota matelee hitaasti, minkä ei pitäisi olla yllätys: lyhyet ja nopeat sodat ovat melkoisia poikkeuksia, valtaosa ei ole. Ehkä tämäkin on yksi opetus Suomen suuntaan: pitää varautua pitkään sotaan. En sano etteikö näin olisi tehty, kunhan vain sanon tuon ääneen.
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
1. Likasanko on laskeutunut Moskovaan. Voi olla mielenkiintoinen ripitys tiedossa.
2. Kuulin tuossa yhden arvion ruotsalaisista vapaaehtoisista. Niitä kun mainittiin olevan satoja. Kantaruotsalaisten lisäksi on lähtenyt kroaattitaustaisia, albaaneja, kosovolaisia (albaaneja nekin) jne. Porukkaa, joka on aikoinaan saanut Venäjän tukemilta serbeiltä runtua. Nyt annetaan takaisin Ukrainassa.
2. Kuulin tuossa yhden arvion ruotsalaisista vapaaehtoisista. Niitä kun mainittiin olevan satoja. Kantaruotsalaisten lisäksi on lähtenyt kroaattitaustaisia, albaaneja, kosovolaisia (albaaneja nekin) jne. Porukkaa, joka on aikoinaan saanut Venäjän tukemilta serbeiltä runtua. Nyt annetaan takaisin Ukrainassa.
Leaderwolf
Respected Leader
Kiova on nyt linnoitus. Linnoitus johon voi ajaa pääväylää tai teollisuuskatua, mutta jokainen reitti on valvottu ja panssarintorjunta valmiina. Melkein kuin Grozny. Mutta hakeutuvilla ohjuksilla ja uhkana myös lännestä tulevat vahvistukset puolustajalle.
ddude
Majuri
Niin siis mun kysymys oli että missä sivustoilla olet huomannut nyt tuon viestin muuttuneen?
Virolaisilla on sanonta: Toida, mis toidat. Hunt vaatab ikka metsa poole.
Eli syötä sutta minkä kerkiät, lopulta se kuitenkin pysyy villieläimenä.
Eli venäläisyys on sama. Sama missä ne asuu niin ovat sisimmiltään venäläinen.
Antares
Respected Leader
Huomaa tuo tähdellä merkitty kommentti kuvan alareunassa: siellä suunnalla on hyökätty muttei ole varmaa tietoa kuka kontrolloi ja mitä. Puutteellisen tiedon varassa ollaan kaikin puolin, siksi nämä kartat ovat aina jotain sinne päin.
Vempauttaja
Alikersantti
Lisään tänne nämä ihmisoikeusaktivisti Vladimir Osechkinin FSB-virkamieheltä tähän mennessä vastaanottamat 4 kirjettä, jotka ansiokkaasti on englanniksi kääntänyt kilpa-autoilija Igor Sushko. Itse en tykkää Twitteristä, ja Sushkon omilla sivuilla ei ole salaus käytössä, eli sen kävijöitä pystyy seuraamaan. Tekstit saattavat olla totta tai saattavat olla maskirovkaa, kiintoisaa luettavaa joka tapauksessa, jos lukijalla kärsivällisyyttä riittää. Toivon ettei meidän Saulia käytetä hyödyllisenä idioottina.
Kirjeet I ja II:
...
Kirjeet I ja II:
I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. All of these political consultants and politicians and that powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash.
We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.
No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians through their disinformation about having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. His squad was absolutely demolished before they even began to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.
ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky without ever considering invading Ukraine.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.
To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.
Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed.
The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems.
As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).
We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of resources, and then ridiculous heat will come…. Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please notice – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.
And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. All of these political consultants and politicians and that powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash.
We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.
No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians through their disinformation about having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. His squad was absolutely demolished before they even began to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.
ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky without ever considering invading Ukraine.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.
To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.
Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed.
The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems.
As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).
We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of resources, and then ridiculous heat will come…. Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please notice – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.
And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.
Here’s the picture with regards to Putin & FSB.
On the one hand, he is supported and respected, but if you slightly dig deeper, it’s a collective feeling for the image, thanks to which FSB has the power that it really has. To serve (in the FSB), there is one unforgettable rule. To most, this rule even appears rather natural and is taken for granted – To criticize Putin’s image is to betray your own interests.
In reality, Putin was never a spy. It’s actually an open secret. But here (FSB) our doubts concerning the authority’s competence is equivalent to treason.
Who makes the decisions? I can tell from our own work that there is no single decision-making post – intrigues and “people who are trusted by the top” lobby the teams, decisions, etc. In light of this, sometimes facts and even events are “created.”
I personally do not have contact with Putin, but if I were to assess him as a target for recruitment as an asset and develop a situational profile, then we have the following as fact:
1) Narcissistic disorders, possibly due to childhood complexes, as methods of overcoming them.
2) Rejection of family life – no information about his parents, secrecy around his children and his own personal life. This requires psychological compensatory mechanisms in search of close relationships. Such psychotype is prone to “cross dominance” in relationships.
3) He tries to surround himself with the type of people whom he respected/feared in his childhood psychotype, over whom he now has power.
4) Strongest psychological resistance of personal responsibility for difficult decisions. It is a result of the 1) above, but in turn, this also leads to a mechanism for denying his own guilt/responsibility even to himself. From this, considering 3) above, we can say the following with near absolute certainty: Putin is psychologically incapable of refusing with justification, an offer from his closest circle. But this also leads to the conclusion that he does not guarantee anything to anyone by saying "yes", because to guarantee is to take responsibility. With high probability I assert that in case of an offer from his closest circle, he will agree with every offer, delegating the control/responsibility to the person making the offer. Psychologically, he will not have any contradictions with "agreement" to mutually exclusive proposals - "you yourself are to blame if you failed."
Next. The current situation is such that no one anywhere has reliable information on complex issues. The reports that go through me are then corrected by the leadership to be politically correct - more positivity, less negativity. These rosy reports are then again massaged to be even more rosy - and false. So, everything is very good here – I know this for sure.
At the top of the authorities, several realities exist in parallel and they are all real in their own way. Power, just like money, is an illusion. It exists exclusively due to belief in it. It is an axiom of a theory of control. There is no Russia as a whole picture either. It sure is something that Putin could find himself completely closed off in a “universe” belonging to someone in his close circle – there’s a reason he is afraid to even allow his ministers near him. This is something we are kept in the dark about and I do not have the details.
But what I know for sure: Volodin (Chairman of the State Duma of the Russia) flew to Cuba prior to the war, and on the day of the invasion he wrote that it’s critical he fly to Nicaragua. No mention of war. The lion's share of people close to the main Towers sincerely believed that there would be no war. And they understood that such a war would be a trap. This is worth noting. Did Shoigu (Minister of Defense) think that the war will turn out this way? No. He is not a real military man. He fully believed in the picture of the army that he showed Putin. I am personally aware of such facts concerning this fu#&er, who is at the highest level of our military, they’d be too rich to turn into an anecdote (Russian joke). When for example Generals are demanded to provide rapid reports on victories, and they (chain-of-command) continue to pass on the order (for the report) downstream while screaming & cursing, until finally some Sergeant agrees to make the report in exchange for military leave, after which he takes a video of the American work in Afghanistan, erases the sound, and hands it off up the chain-of-command. And the recipient hands it off higher, and so on, until it reaches the tables of the Command, who completely believe the report, and they hand it off to Shoigu (Minister of Defense of Russia), who then hands it off to Putin.
There are serious discussions about how Putin is lately absorbed by finding “mystical meanings.” From numerology to the shamans somewhere up north. Can’t say anything concrete – it doesn’t fit into any analysis.
But that the Czar is not the Czar is a fact. (Putin is not in charge anymore) He wants to be the Czar, but this is a trap of illusions and field of object manipulations. Prerequisites are established for this from all perspectives.
About the internet – to be honest, we can shut down the internet. Technically. Can also sew closed your own mouth, in order to stop drinking. Technically, yes. Attempts to shut down (the internet) will be made. The worst is that various departments will compete for greater efficiency.
Kidding aside, my superiors sometimes say this in all seriousness: “North Korea lives in this regime (without internet) – and it’s fine.”
Anyway, war psychosis is scary – we can screw up a lot of things in this mental state. How this will end is unknown. Look at the big picture: We react in real-time. The law was passed criminalizing those who post “fake info against the military”. Kadyrov reasonably responds that his structures belong to the RosGvardia (National Guard), meaning his members can’t be charged with this law. Another law can be passed. And then one that excludes judges (from this law), then a law for those in the special forces, and then for the tax officials. This is not proper systematic work, but some kind of parody of case law in the United States. No exclusions should be made.
Which is why I believe in your actions (Vladimir Osechkin, human rights activist). No, I don’t believe that prison tortures will be reduced as a result of your actions. But the percentage of those who perfectly understand what is going on is rather high. Within our ranks (FSB) as well as within the military.
I need points of support so as not to feel like a doomed renegade. If this layer is also lost, that's it, the lid of the country's coffin will be hammered shut.
Soon everything will change. I am afraid to even think how and when exactly – we’ve entered the impossible state of “as it used to be” but do not fit into the state of “how we’d like it to be.” We now have a classic fault point of the country - as in (Evgeny) Messner's "Mutinous War," which was reworked into “Gerasimov's Doctrine.”
Need any points of support (fulcrum) to maintain sanity even just minimally. And those who’ve already gone off the rails – they don’t care anymore.
On the one hand, he is supported and respected, but if you slightly dig deeper, it’s a collective feeling for the image, thanks to which FSB has the power that it really has. To serve (in the FSB), there is one unforgettable rule. To most, this rule even appears rather natural and is taken for granted – To criticize Putin’s image is to betray your own interests.
In reality, Putin was never a spy. It’s actually an open secret. But here (FSB) our doubts concerning the authority’s competence is equivalent to treason.
Who makes the decisions? I can tell from our own work that there is no single decision-making post – intrigues and “people who are trusted by the top” lobby the teams, decisions, etc. In light of this, sometimes facts and even events are “created.”
I personally do not have contact with Putin, but if I were to assess him as a target for recruitment as an asset and develop a situational profile, then we have the following as fact:
1) Narcissistic disorders, possibly due to childhood complexes, as methods of overcoming them.
2) Rejection of family life – no information about his parents, secrecy around his children and his own personal life. This requires psychological compensatory mechanisms in search of close relationships. Such psychotype is prone to “cross dominance” in relationships.
3) He tries to surround himself with the type of people whom he respected/feared in his childhood psychotype, over whom he now has power.
4) Strongest psychological resistance of personal responsibility for difficult decisions. It is a result of the 1) above, but in turn, this also leads to a mechanism for denying his own guilt/responsibility even to himself. From this, considering 3) above, we can say the following with near absolute certainty: Putin is psychologically incapable of refusing with justification, an offer from his closest circle. But this also leads to the conclusion that he does not guarantee anything to anyone by saying "yes", because to guarantee is to take responsibility. With high probability I assert that in case of an offer from his closest circle, he will agree with every offer, delegating the control/responsibility to the person making the offer. Psychologically, he will not have any contradictions with "agreement" to mutually exclusive proposals - "you yourself are to blame if you failed."
Next. The current situation is such that no one anywhere has reliable information on complex issues. The reports that go through me are then corrected by the leadership to be politically correct - more positivity, less negativity. These rosy reports are then again massaged to be even more rosy - and false. So, everything is very good here – I know this for sure.
At the top of the authorities, several realities exist in parallel and they are all real in their own way. Power, just like money, is an illusion. It exists exclusively due to belief in it. It is an axiom of a theory of control. There is no Russia as a whole picture either. It sure is something that Putin could find himself completely closed off in a “universe” belonging to someone in his close circle – there’s a reason he is afraid to even allow his ministers near him. This is something we are kept in the dark about and I do not have the details.
But what I know for sure: Volodin (Chairman of the State Duma of the Russia) flew to Cuba prior to the war, and on the day of the invasion he wrote that it’s critical he fly to Nicaragua. No mention of war. The lion's share of people close to the main Towers sincerely believed that there would be no war. And they understood that such a war would be a trap. This is worth noting. Did Shoigu (Minister of Defense) think that the war will turn out this way? No. He is not a real military man. He fully believed in the picture of the army that he showed Putin. I am personally aware of such facts concerning this fu#&er, who is at the highest level of our military, they’d be too rich to turn into an anecdote (Russian joke). When for example Generals are demanded to provide rapid reports on victories, and they (chain-of-command) continue to pass on the order (for the report) downstream while screaming & cursing, until finally some Sergeant agrees to make the report in exchange for military leave, after which he takes a video of the American work in Afghanistan, erases the sound, and hands it off up the chain-of-command. And the recipient hands it off higher, and so on, until it reaches the tables of the Command, who completely believe the report, and they hand it off to Shoigu (Minister of Defense of Russia), who then hands it off to Putin.
There are serious discussions about how Putin is lately absorbed by finding “mystical meanings.” From numerology to the shamans somewhere up north. Can’t say anything concrete – it doesn’t fit into any analysis.
But that the Czar is not the Czar is a fact. (Putin is not in charge anymore) He wants to be the Czar, but this is a trap of illusions and field of object manipulations. Prerequisites are established for this from all perspectives.
About the internet – to be honest, we can shut down the internet. Technically. Can also sew closed your own mouth, in order to stop drinking. Technically, yes. Attempts to shut down (the internet) will be made. The worst is that various departments will compete for greater efficiency.
Kidding aside, my superiors sometimes say this in all seriousness: “North Korea lives in this regime (without internet) – and it’s fine.”
Anyway, war psychosis is scary – we can screw up a lot of things in this mental state. How this will end is unknown. Look at the big picture: We react in real-time. The law was passed criminalizing those who post “fake info against the military”. Kadyrov reasonably responds that his structures belong to the RosGvardia (National Guard), meaning his members can’t be charged with this law. Another law can be passed. And then one that excludes judges (from this law), then a law for those in the special forces, and then for the tax officials. This is not proper systematic work, but some kind of parody of case law in the United States. No exclusions should be made.
Which is why I believe in your actions (Vladimir Osechkin, human rights activist). No, I don’t believe that prison tortures will be reduced as a result of your actions. But the percentage of those who perfectly understand what is going on is rather high. Within our ranks (FSB) as well as within the military.
I need points of support so as not to feel like a doomed renegade. If this layer is also lost, that's it, the lid of the country's coffin will be hammered shut.
Soon everything will change. I am afraid to even think how and when exactly – we’ve entered the impossible state of “as it used to be” but do not fit into the state of “how we’d like it to be.” We now have a classic fault point of the country - as in (Evgeny) Messner's "Mutinous War," which was reworked into “Gerasimov's Doctrine.”
Need any points of support (fulcrum) to maintain sanity even just minimally. And those who’ve already gone off the rails – they don’t care anymore.
...
Vempauttaja
Alikersantti
...jatkoa, kirjeet III ja IV.
I will start with a bigger picture. There are people with particular talents in the field of analytics (inside the FSB), who are retained here in the bureau not just for the value they bring, but to ensure that they remain under “control” (of the Russian government). For example, and I am one of them, such people may not return to an ordinary life, the system does not allow for such a shift. “There” (outside the FSB) we are considered dangerous. This is my department’s policy.
I am here, and now I definitely understand why we won’t have any more Mercedes or BMWs (in the country), but will have a ton of Ladas. In order (for Russia) to have Mercedes, we must behave according to protocol which is optimized and controlled. Without political decisions and knee-jerk demands of the authorities (that affect an agency like the FSB). This isn’t about “catching up and overtaking,” but about methodical and painstaking work, with a strategy rather than a wishlist. But in Russia this never happens.
We have plenty of resources within the FSB to switch to a method of systemic analysis, but nobody fuc$ing wants it. We can meticulously calculate variations, build models, and identify problems.
But on a whim, some bastard who is usually not even from our structure - I'm talking about senior officials, politicians and their hangers-on) can suddenly declare that "here (in the department) the mood is too defeatist, and you are casting a shadow on the leadership of some state structure with which we want to avoid conflict.” There is professionalism and there is loyalty. Loyalty is demanded – and is highly valued at critical times to elevate the leadership (within FSB) or to satisfy the "requirements from the very top.”
While we work on some pedophile & human trafficking cases, I say from first-hand experience, no one interferes. And we get results. And once we deliver results, then we are assigned more political cases. Analysts should not have emotions. There are forecast models, there are statistics, there is sociology. “Believe or don’t believe” should not exist (in his line of work). But it exists. And those who are ready to nod and say “We will find a solution and solve the problem” are the ones climbing the ladder. Problems from such an approach are only piling up.
Now on to your question – the situation is out of control. Any model has a time horizon in planning with parameters for performance within functional boundaries. Now there is none of this: most input parameters are junk based on political decisions.
Last Sunday all resources were allocated to “ensure stability of all processes in 3-5 days.” A reasonable question: what if nothing gets better in 3-5 days? We weren’t allowed to even work on such a scenario –(instruction to the analysts -) find methods, think, and work. We will survive 3-5 days, then the situation will improve, and will start planning for long-term. These 3-5 days have passed. Situation got worse. The only constant is the approach.
What we don’t have for a normal model:
- reliable information on the events in the Russian regions
- reliable data on the real state of the army units
- reliable data on the military prospects of the operation. There are whole sets of data from various departments and services, and they contradict each other, which means there’s nothing.
-a well-developed model of economic management under the current restricted conditions (sanctions)
- reliable information with regards to loyalty of the elites in the financial and political sectors.
- reliable data on the impending extreme measures to be implemented in Russia.
What we do have:
- a constant stream of new data on "emergent" economic problems that "cannot exist": partial failures in the supply chains of raw materials can stop complex processes, including the production of strategic products (military), the (non) functioning of single-industry towns and industrial agglomerations;
- the expected explosive growth of banditry and crime, due to the superposition of several factors including: economic problems, a decrease in the mental stability of the population from stress + war psychosis + compounded nervous state from isolation measures
- situational planning of the political sort without assessing the long-term [and even short- and medium-term] prospects for their introduction;
- segregation of the work of services and departments due to the loss of a unified management system
- the growth of foreign policy threats, including military - there is no guarantee that Japan will not attack the Kuril islands or that Georgia will not attack Ossetia-Abkhazia, Syria and Libya is preparing for attacks against our units);
-the complete dysfunction of the former economic model as there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate is not stable, the old system of employment is impossible in principle.
There can’t be any forecasts with such inputs. We have now jumped from anti-crisis management to crisis management. And to be honest, we just entered catastrophic mode. A catastrophe as a condition is characterized by “it will not be as it was, and how it will be, we will not know until it happens.”
Paradoxically, the country’s survival under such conditions for some time is only possible because of the autonomy of certain parts of the government. To be blunt, a police chief of a small town knows what he needs rather than adhering to the “universal commands from the center.” Here and now, this and only this can extend the survival of structures and systems, but if we take a horizon of a year or more, then this is the death of the (centralized) government as whole.
As I predicted, Nabiullina (Head of the Russian Central Bank) will now be dragged, people around her will be prosecuted. This will pulverize the banking sector into the trash - what will happen with the exchange rate and policy of the Central Bank - I am not an economist by education, don’t even want to think about it without systematic study. The worst option - they will put in place the one who offers to turn on the printing press to "hold the situation."
For the same reason [I am not an economist] I will not assess the prospects of the commodity market, but it has gone off the rails: everything is being bought out, which means the demand is causing crazy swings.
As a result, normal logistics are impossible as warehousing and transportation are calculated from the model of optimal average values, when there is the most uniform load to its full potential. And when you need to produce, transport, store, and sell 2-months supply of goods in just 3 days, and then go idle for 2 months – that’s fu#Ked. At the same time, not the best is happening with loans - rates are rising, and access to money is only getting more difficult.
Burnout. Personally, I'm already burned out - indifference is seeping in, the desire to bust my ass is gone. It’s impossible to work toward a result with such inputs. You want me to give you “plans for victory” and show a smart face “according to the law of wartime” – OK, you won. Now that’s what I do. And burnout will be absolute, rampant.
Now the internal mobilization of the power resources (riot police, etc.) will begin, and when it is done without a time horizon, it is a catastrophe. All departments are in elevated mode, everyone is looking for enemies and saboteurs, everyone is saving the country from the inside. Those who do not burn out – that’s who we should be afraid of. It will be classic lawlessness and fascism. Many of our people (FSB) also believe that "now it is necessary to be tough with enemies," and anyone around can become an enemy. This psychosis is happening against the backdrop of the professional deformation of one’s personality. This is a moral shift. Irreversible.
Most scary. If at the top they decide to issue a command of “military expediency” – hell will be here immediately. Military expediency is lawlessness. The right of force. A person is psychologically wired to seek justifications for all his actions. The law is only a tool that sets the boundaries. Because “for the sake of your country” you can shoot out the legs of a suspicious person, and you can kill a person who refuses to submit to a soldier. Military expediency unleashes total freedom for internal justifications. In fact, it is the same revolution when force overthrows the establishment.
I have no universal forecasts except for the old one: By May-June we won’t have what to fight with (weapons), whom to fight with (soldiers) and how to support all this. But the turning point (of the war) will be in the coming days. I suspect for the worse. And even if we choose to activate strategic aviation – it will only make it worse for us. Frankly, the United States is allowing us to get sucked into this conflict further. They understand that we are now trapped.
Markers we are still monitoring:
The West preparing programs that conditionally fall under the category of "oil in exchange for food." For us. This will mean that the trap has been slammed shut;
Sudden changes in personnel in the government bloc, which we will not be notified about in advance to ensure additional control. This will speak of panic governing – a system of abrupt and consequential personnel decisions solely based on emotions;
Total nationalization. Personally, unlike many of my colleagues, I prioritize this marker above all others, as after this we will economically turn into Venezuela even without war and sanctions, this will be de-facto pillaging.
Military ultimatums from other countries. But we can also make our own ultimatums for now.
Desertion by the highest-level military-political representatives of Russia to other countries. We are tracking this nominally, but we do not have a “clean” special service (FSB) after all. It’d take long to explain nor is it very pleasant.
Improvement of the economic situation in Russia within the next 3-5 years is impossible in all available scenarios. Although, of course, there could be exceptions: highly developed aliens who choose to specifically support us, we will learn to cast spells; something else from this opera (a Russian expression meaning something from a similar story).
And currently unknown is how Asia and the Arab world will react when hunger strikes these regions in the summer – grains will not be exported this year (from Russia).
It’s difficult to succinctly summarize such topics, but I hope that at least partially I’ve answered the question.
You simply must hamper the torture processes within the prisons – there is no one beside you who can possibly do it. Uncontrolled violence will be such that the bloody arrival of Bolsheviks to power will seem like a light warm-up. I don’t think we will be able to avoid the terrible, but it is worth at least to soften up the hell that is coming.
I am here, and now I definitely understand why we won’t have any more Mercedes or BMWs (in the country), but will have a ton of Ladas. In order (for Russia) to have Mercedes, we must behave according to protocol which is optimized and controlled. Without political decisions and knee-jerk demands of the authorities (that affect an agency like the FSB). This isn’t about “catching up and overtaking,” but about methodical and painstaking work, with a strategy rather than a wishlist. But in Russia this never happens.
We have plenty of resources within the FSB to switch to a method of systemic analysis, but nobody fuc$ing wants it. We can meticulously calculate variations, build models, and identify problems.
But on a whim, some bastard who is usually not even from our structure - I'm talking about senior officials, politicians and their hangers-on) can suddenly declare that "here (in the department) the mood is too defeatist, and you are casting a shadow on the leadership of some state structure with which we want to avoid conflict.” There is professionalism and there is loyalty. Loyalty is demanded – and is highly valued at critical times to elevate the leadership (within FSB) or to satisfy the "requirements from the very top.”
While we work on some pedophile & human trafficking cases, I say from first-hand experience, no one interferes. And we get results. And once we deliver results, then we are assigned more political cases. Analysts should not have emotions. There are forecast models, there are statistics, there is sociology. “Believe or don’t believe” should not exist (in his line of work). But it exists. And those who are ready to nod and say “We will find a solution and solve the problem” are the ones climbing the ladder. Problems from such an approach are only piling up.
Now on to your question – the situation is out of control. Any model has a time horizon in planning with parameters for performance within functional boundaries. Now there is none of this: most input parameters are junk based on political decisions.
Last Sunday all resources were allocated to “ensure stability of all processes in 3-5 days.” A reasonable question: what if nothing gets better in 3-5 days? We weren’t allowed to even work on such a scenario –(instruction to the analysts -) find methods, think, and work. We will survive 3-5 days, then the situation will improve, and will start planning for long-term. These 3-5 days have passed. Situation got worse. The only constant is the approach.
What we don’t have for a normal model:
- reliable information on the events in the Russian regions
- reliable data on the real state of the army units
- reliable data on the military prospects of the operation. There are whole sets of data from various departments and services, and they contradict each other, which means there’s nothing.
-a well-developed model of economic management under the current restricted conditions (sanctions)
- reliable information with regards to loyalty of the elites in the financial and political sectors.
- reliable data on the impending extreme measures to be implemented in Russia.
What we do have:
- a constant stream of new data on "emergent" economic problems that "cannot exist": partial failures in the supply chains of raw materials can stop complex processes, including the production of strategic products (military), the (non) functioning of single-industry towns and industrial agglomerations;
- the expected explosive growth of banditry and crime, due to the superposition of several factors including: economic problems, a decrease in the mental stability of the population from stress + war psychosis + compounded nervous state from isolation measures
- situational planning of the political sort without assessing the long-term [and even short- and medium-term] prospects for their introduction;
- segregation of the work of services and departments due to the loss of a unified management system
- the growth of foreign policy threats, including military - there is no guarantee that Japan will not attack the Kuril islands or that Georgia will not attack Ossetia-Abkhazia, Syria and Libya is preparing for attacks against our units);
-the complete dysfunction of the former economic model as there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate is not stable, the old system of employment is impossible in principle.
There can’t be any forecasts with such inputs. We have now jumped from anti-crisis management to crisis management. And to be honest, we just entered catastrophic mode. A catastrophe as a condition is characterized by “it will not be as it was, and how it will be, we will not know until it happens.”
Paradoxically, the country’s survival under such conditions for some time is only possible because of the autonomy of certain parts of the government. To be blunt, a police chief of a small town knows what he needs rather than adhering to the “universal commands from the center.” Here and now, this and only this can extend the survival of structures and systems, but if we take a horizon of a year or more, then this is the death of the (centralized) government as whole.
As I predicted, Nabiullina (Head of the Russian Central Bank) will now be dragged, people around her will be prosecuted. This will pulverize the banking sector into the trash - what will happen with the exchange rate and policy of the Central Bank - I am not an economist by education, don’t even want to think about it without systematic study. The worst option - they will put in place the one who offers to turn on the printing press to "hold the situation."
For the same reason [I am not an economist] I will not assess the prospects of the commodity market, but it has gone off the rails: everything is being bought out, which means the demand is causing crazy swings.
As a result, normal logistics are impossible as warehousing and transportation are calculated from the model of optimal average values, when there is the most uniform load to its full potential. And when you need to produce, transport, store, and sell 2-months supply of goods in just 3 days, and then go idle for 2 months – that’s fu#Ked. At the same time, not the best is happening with loans - rates are rising, and access to money is only getting more difficult.
Burnout. Personally, I'm already burned out - indifference is seeping in, the desire to bust my ass is gone. It’s impossible to work toward a result with such inputs. You want me to give you “plans for victory” and show a smart face “according to the law of wartime” – OK, you won. Now that’s what I do. And burnout will be absolute, rampant.
Now the internal mobilization of the power resources (riot police, etc.) will begin, and when it is done without a time horizon, it is a catastrophe. All departments are in elevated mode, everyone is looking for enemies and saboteurs, everyone is saving the country from the inside. Those who do not burn out – that’s who we should be afraid of. It will be classic lawlessness and fascism. Many of our people (FSB) also believe that "now it is necessary to be tough with enemies," and anyone around can become an enemy. This psychosis is happening against the backdrop of the professional deformation of one’s personality. This is a moral shift. Irreversible.
Most scary. If at the top they decide to issue a command of “military expediency” – hell will be here immediately. Military expediency is lawlessness. The right of force. A person is psychologically wired to seek justifications for all his actions. The law is only a tool that sets the boundaries. Because “for the sake of your country” you can shoot out the legs of a suspicious person, and you can kill a person who refuses to submit to a soldier. Military expediency unleashes total freedom for internal justifications. In fact, it is the same revolution when force overthrows the establishment.
I have no universal forecasts except for the old one: By May-June we won’t have what to fight with (weapons), whom to fight with (soldiers) and how to support all this. But the turning point (of the war) will be in the coming days. I suspect for the worse. And even if we choose to activate strategic aviation – it will only make it worse for us. Frankly, the United States is allowing us to get sucked into this conflict further. They understand that we are now trapped.
Markers we are still monitoring:
The West preparing programs that conditionally fall under the category of "oil in exchange for food." For us. This will mean that the trap has been slammed shut;
Sudden changes in personnel in the government bloc, which we will not be notified about in advance to ensure additional control. This will speak of panic governing – a system of abrupt and consequential personnel decisions solely based on emotions;
Total nationalization. Personally, unlike many of my colleagues, I prioritize this marker above all others, as after this we will economically turn into Venezuela even without war and sanctions, this will be de-facto pillaging.
Military ultimatums from other countries. But we can also make our own ultimatums for now.
Desertion by the highest-level military-political representatives of Russia to other countries. We are tracking this nominally, but we do not have a “clean” special service (FSB) after all. It’d take long to explain nor is it very pleasant.
Improvement of the economic situation in Russia within the next 3-5 years is impossible in all available scenarios. Although, of course, there could be exceptions: highly developed aliens who choose to specifically support us, we will learn to cast spells; something else from this opera (a Russian expression meaning something from a similar story).
And currently unknown is how Asia and the Arab world will react when hunger strikes these regions in the summer – grains will not be exported this year (from Russia).
It’s difficult to succinctly summarize such topics, but I hope that at least partially I’ve answered the question.
You simply must hamper the torture processes within the prisons – there is no one beside you who can possibly do it. Uncontrolled violence will be such that the bloody arrival of Bolsheviks to power will seem like a light warm-up. I don’t think we will be able to avoid the terrible, but it is worth at least to soften up the hell that is coming.
Vladimir, good afternoon!
This is probably the first time that I’ve been able to write to you in the daytime during a weekday – everything is upside down now.
Under different circumstance, this information would look like utter nonsense, but right now, I am afraid, this won’t be the end of it.
First, we (FSB) are seriously evaluating a version that the current events of war with Ukraine is a war between the US and China, in which the Americans simply set us up and are using us. Now I’ll try to explain succinctly & clearly.
(This is the new ‘nonsensical’ working theory that the FSB analysts are being tasked to work on)
A global clash between the USA and China was unavoidable. After the war started in Ukraine [at least here in this correspondence I don’t have to use the term “operation”] the cost of resources has risen globally, especially energy. The main casualty of these events is China and our side (Russia) provided China certain guarantees, which I can personally confirm – that everything will end quickly (invasion of Ukraine). Which is why China has been tolerating the situation. But this was before.
The American situation is such that owners of the industry and oil drilling are in essence the same corporations, and that helps with the internal balance: They make money on drilling when oil is expensive, and when it’s cheap – from industrial development. This is a bit blunt, but it provides the necessary insight into their approach.
And shales (oil fracking), unlike the classic method (of oil extraction), is easy to stop and start.
Now the US will make an agreement with Venezuela and Iran. They can buy out Venezuelan light crude with a crazy discount. And the opening of the Iranian oil (market) will obviously be perceived with hostility by Saudi Arabia and UEA. The Yemeni conflict is also relevant here, and a row of other factors which I will ignore for the sake of simplicity. But it all leads to the fact that the US had already made preparations for these negotiations in advance.
The US has basically set a trap for us, almost analogous to the trap set for Iraq in Kuwait, when Saddam Hussein was being convinced that for a “small conflict (incursion)” there will be no response. He entered Kuwait and “Dessert Storm” began. And that was the beginning of the end of Iraq.
We were receiving similar signs that the US will not get involved, which has been confirmed from a military perspective. China can absolutely give us a harsh ultimatum to end the war to stabilize the price of oil. If this happens, I don’t want to make predictions – it’d be on the horizon of catastrophic events.
Russia’s image is so negative in the eyes of so many countries because of the war, that the US can easily pressure the Europeans to impose sanctions against China in case China decides to maneuver around the current sanctions against Russia (to help Russia). China’s high dependence on exports coupled with its dependence on commodity prices would result in a fatal blow if the cost of commodities goes up because their domestic market will disappear (Chinese population can’t afford the increased price of goods).
Not only that, Xi Jing Ping was considering a takeover of Taiwan in autumn – he needs his own small victory to be re-elected for his 3rd term – there’s a colossal internal fight between the elites. Now after the events in Ukraine, the window of opportunity (to take Taiwan) has been closed. This gives the US an opportunity to blackmail Xi and also negotiate with his rivals on favorable terms.
In this instance, it is us (Russia) that set this trap for China through our actions (in Ukraine).
We won’t be able to admit this out loud, even an assessment of scenarios from current conditions is “not entirely appropriate.” Hence the desire that the secret becomes open: Yes, this is only a working version, but it exists in our structures (in the FSB).
Second – the evolution of the current situation.
Now about our other plans, which go beyond any boundaries of insanity. Sanctions against Russia have reached a level with no precedent in history. The only thing that Putin is right about – this is essentially equivalent to war. The current approach with sanctions leaves Russia without any chances.
Now the matter may not be limited to threatening Europe – the chance of hostilities, albeit of localized nature, can be considered to be historically high. Ukraine is a monstrously large front, there are smaller fronts. For example, if we were talking about Moldova, the military operations would really be limited to several hours. With the Baltics – several days, but there’d be artillery hits first.
Actual threats of conventional rocket strikes against Europe [not bluffs] in the event of further sanctions can no longer be dismissed. Supporters of such an approach, who exist among those with influence on the decision, muse that in a sordid case we will simply be crushed by waiting until an internal implosion and collapse from inside (in Russia).
In addition to the rockets, we have the capability to conduct a massive cyberwar – the internet can be shut down (by Russia inside Russia). Such a possibility exists and it’d be difficult (for the West) to respond symmetrically (since Russia won’t have internet anyway).
And the external war should reduce the internal tension and redirect the aggression outward. However “should” – doesn’t mean it’ll be so.
There’s also one that is rather realistic [but I can’t say it’s good] plans to start a massive disinformation campaign that we are prepared for the war and sanctions for years to come: This should pressure the Ukrainians psychologically – “It won’t end quickly, better to surrender” and also the West.
I suppose that various government powers (in Russia) could start pushing their own plans (on how to proceed). That will simply lead to even more chaos (in Russia).
I won’t talk about the economy – it’s like discussing the nuances of pacifism while being nuclear-bombed.
The terror has strengthened – there are no internal instruments to hold the situation inside the country.
But terror is a complicated and expensive thing – it should become temporary. It’s like holding your breath because the air is poisoned: If you can escape the area, then the action is justified. But if you hold your breath for “an hour” – you saved yourself from the poison but…
Systemic decisions with a positive outcome do not exist. There is no Ukrainian political power that we could delegate the authority just for the optics. If we show Yanukovich (former President of Ukraine that was Putin’s asset, who dismantled the Ukrainian military pre-2014), it will only expose how bad things really are here. No single strategically important city has been taken in Ukraine. Kherson and Kharkov were considered the most pro-Russian. Pro-Ukrainian protests are not dying down in Kherson despite the presence of our soldiers. In Khrakov things are much worse.
Just summarizing the gist without getting into the details.
There is another piece of information that is critical.
The “Plan for Victory” in the FSB is being painted as such:
Zelensky will be pressured into signing a fluff peace agreement recognizing Crimea as Russian, and Luhansk- and Donetsk-oblasts will become LDNR. LDNR will be the focus of our negotiators in terms of nuance, etc. But it’s just a distraction.
The key clause would be about demilitarization, which would essentially ban Ukrainian intelligence services, and most importantly counter-intelligence.
And here our people (FSB) already see the prognosis: Over a number of years, it would be possible for us (FSB) with some minimal help from the GRU (Russian Military Intelligence), to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field in Ukraine. And after all this, we could install any government in Kiev.
With high probability this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin with strategic correction, although the scenario is insane and aggression on other fronts is not being cancelled. In theory, the plan does have potential, but how it will be in practice is unknown. There will be no military victory, only something like this.
Lots of nuances, but most important – our side will be able to breach such agreements after they’re signed anytime, when there’s strength to turn the tide. Then it won’t be the military but the “black crows” who will be executing the “second phase,” arresting those accused of breaking the agreement from the Ukrainian side.
This scenario is not so crazy like the others, but it is completely contingent on the fact that Kiev can actually be pressured in the negotiations. We are now working the Western contacts at the highest levels – looking for countries who will support our position and to put pressure on Zelensky. It could be another bluff, it could be an analogue of Wenck’s army in our current reality. Overall, as I’ve been saying, the level of chaos here is quite high.
In economic terms, we are falling and everything is very predictable: the abyss is fervently winking at us.
We are limited in our ability to verify all data, but consider it important to disclose this information for the purpose of informing of the existing threats to global security. Нет войне! (No to War!)
This is probably the first time that I’ve been able to write to you in the daytime during a weekday – everything is upside down now.
Under different circumstance, this information would look like utter nonsense, but right now, I am afraid, this won’t be the end of it.
First, we (FSB) are seriously evaluating a version that the current events of war with Ukraine is a war between the US and China, in which the Americans simply set us up and are using us. Now I’ll try to explain succinctly & clearly.
(This is the new ‘nonsensical’ working theory that the FSB analysts are being tasked to work on)
A global clash between the USA and China was unavoidable. After the war started in Ukraine [at least here in this correspondence I don’t have to use the term “operation”] the cost of resources has risen globally, especially energy. The main casualty of these events is China and our side (Russia) provided China certain guarantees, which I can personally confirm – that everything will end quickly (invasion of Ukraine). Which is why China has been tolerating the situation. But this was before.
The American situation is such that owners of the industry and oil drilling are in essence the same corporations, and that helps with the internal balance: They make money on drilling when oil is expensive, and when it’s cheap – from industrial development. This is a bit blunt, but it provides the necessary insight into their approach.
And shales (oil fracking), unlike the classic method (of oil extraction), is easy to stop and start.
Now the US will make an agreement with Venezuela and Iran. They can buy out Venezuelan light crude with a crazy discount. And the opening of the Iranian oil (market) will obviously be perceived with hostility by Saudi Arabia and UEA. The Yemeni conflict is also relevant here, and a row of other factors which I will ignore for the sake of simplicity. But it all leads to the fact that the US had already made preparations for these negotiations in advance.
The US has basically set a trap for us, almost analogous to the trap set for Iraq in Kuwait, when Saddam Hussein was being convinced that for a “small conflict (incursion)” there will be no response. He entered Kuwait and “Dessert Storm” began. And that was the beginning of the end of Iraq.
We were receiving similar signs that the US will not get involved, which has been confirmed from a military perspective. China can absolutely give us a harsh ultimatum to end the war to stabilize the price of oil. If this happens, I don’t want to make predictions – it’d be on the horizon of catastrophic events.
Russia’s image is so negative in the eyes of so many countries because of the war, that the US can easily pressure the Europeans to impose sanctions against China in case China decides to maneuver around the current sanctions against Russia (to help Russia). China’s high dependence on exports coupled with its dependence on commodity prices would result in a fatal blow if the cost of commodities goes up because their domestic market will disappear (Chinese population can’t afford the increased price of goods).
Not only that, Xi Jing Ping was considering a takeover of Taiwan in autumn – he needs his own small victory to be re-elected for his 3rd term – there’s a colossal internal fight between the elites. Now after the events in Ukraine, the window of opportunity (to take Taiwan) has been closed. This gives the US an opportunity to blackmail Xi and also negotiate with his rivals on favorable terms.
In this instance, it is us (Russia) that set this trap for China through our actions (in Ukraine).
We won’t be able to admit this out loud, even an assessment of scenarios from current conditions is “not entirely appropriate.” Hence the desire that the secret becomes open: Yes, this is only a working version, but it exists in our structures (in the FSB).
Second – the evolution of the current situation.
Now about our other plans, which go beyond any boundaries of insanity. Sanctions against Russia have reached a level with no precedent in history. The only thing that Putin is right about – this is essentially equivalent to war. The current approach with sanctions leaves Russia without any chances.
Now the matter may not be limited to threatening Europe – the chance of hostilities, albeit of localized nature, can be considered to be historically high. Ukraine is a monstrously large front, there are smaller fronts. For example, if we were talking about Moldova, the military operations would really be limited to several hours. With the Baltics – several days, but there’d be artillery hits first.
Actual threats of conventional rocket strikes against Europe [not bluffs] in the event of further sanctions can no longer be dismissed. Supporters of such an approach, who exist among those with influence on the decision, muse that in a sordid case we will simply be crushed by waiting until an internal implosion and collapse from inside (in Russia).
In addition to the rockets, we have the capability to conduct a massive cyberwar – the internet can be shut down (by Russia inside Russia). Such a possibility exists and it’d be difficult (for the West) to respond symmetrically (since Russia won’t have internet anyway).
And the external war should reduce the internal tension and redirect the aggression outward. However “should” – doesn’t mean it’ll be so.
There’s also one that is rather realistic [but I can’t say it’s good] plans to start a massive disinformation campaign that we are prepared for the war and sanctions for years to come: This should pressure the Ukrainians psychologically – “It won’t end quickly, better to surrender” and also the West.
I suppose that various government powers (in Russia) could start pushing their own plans (on how to proceed). That will simply lead to even more chaos (in Russia).
I won’t talk about the economy – it’s like discussing the nuances of pacifism while being nuclear-bombed.
The terror has strengthened – there are no internal instruments to hold the situation inside the country.
But terror is a complicated and expensive thing – it should become temporary. It’s like holding your breath because the air is poisoned: If you can escape the area, then the action is justified. But if you hold your breath for “an hour” – you saved yourself from the poison but…
Systemic decisions with a positive outcome do not exist. There is no Ukrainian political power that we could delegate the authority just for the optics. If we show Yanukovich (former President of Ukraine that was Putin’s asset, who dismantled the Ukrainian military pre-2014), it will only expose how bad things really are here. No single strategically important city has been taken in Ukraine. Kherson and Kharkov were considered the most pro-Russian. Pro-Ukrainian protests are not dying down in Kherson despite the presence of our soldiers. In Khrakov things are much worse.
Just summarizing the gist without getting into the details.
There is another piece of information that is critical.
The “Plan for Victory” in the FSB is being painted as such:
Zelensky will be pressured into signing a fluff peace agreement recognizing Crimea as Russian, and Luhansk- and Donetsk-oblasts will become LDNR. LDNR will be the focus of our negotiators in terms of nuance, etc. But it’s just a distraction.
The key clause would be about demilitarization, which would essentially ban Ukrainian intelligence services, and most importantly counter-intelligence.
And here our people (FSB) already see the prognosis: Over a number of years, it would be possible for us (FSB) with some minimal help from the GRU (Russian Military Intelligence), to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field in Ukraine. And after all this, we could install any government in Kiev.
With high probability this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin with strategic correction, although the scenario is insane and aggression on other fronts is not being cancelled. In theory, the plan does have potential, but how it will be in practice is unknown. There will be no military victory, only something like this.
Lots of nuances, but most important – our side will be able to breach such agreements after they’re signed anytime, when there’s strength to turn the tide. Then it won’t be the military but the “black crows” who will be executing the “second phase,” arresting those accused of breaking the agreement from the Ukrainian side.
This scenario is not so crazy like the others, but it is completely contingent on the fact that Kiev can actually be pressured in the negotiations. We are now working the Western contacts at the highest levels – looking for countries who will support our position and to put pressure on Zelensky. It could be another bluff, it could be an analogue of Wenck’s army in our current reality. Overall, as I’ve been saying, the level of chaos here is quite high.
In economic terms, we are falling and everything is very predictable: the abyss is fervently winking at us.
We are limited in our ability to verify all data, but consider it important to disclose this information for the purpose of informing of the existing threats to global security. Нет войне! (No to War!)
Tyrsky
Eversti
Tuossa kun olen seuraillut tuota itänaapurin arvioidun kalustotappiolistan päivittymistä, niin matemaattisesti on todettava että jos joisin ison oluen jokaisen tuhotun/haltuunotetun/hylätyn panssarivaunun johdosta, niin kuolisin aika nopeasti alkoholimyrkytykseen.
Kolmen päivän datan perusteella yksi panssarivaunu tuhotaan/haltuunotetaan/hylätään laskennallisesti 45min välein. Se on aika ripeä tahti se! Hyvä niin! =)
Alla vielä iloksenne ja ihmeteltäväksenne kolmen edellisen päivän Ukrainan ilmoittamat Venäjän tappiot
Kolmen päivän datan perusteella yksi panssarivaunu tuhotaan/haltuunotetaan/hylätään laskennallisesti 45min välein. Se on aika ripeä tahti se! Hyvä niin! =)
Alla vielä iloksenne ja ihmeteltäväksenne kolmen edellisen päivän Ukrainan ilmoittamat Venäjän tappiot