Vladimir, good [REDACTED]!
I now have an opportunity (time) to briefly explain the previous letter (6th #FSBletters)
The Iranians made some noise, but it turned out to be IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) saber-rattling: they were aiming at Mossad (Israeli intelligence agency) facilities, apparently based on intel that Mossad fed them (IRGC didn’t know the info was coming from Mossad), but Mossad set them up them up to hit US facilities instead. (MY COMMENT: Before people start freaking out – 1) Mossad likely fed bad coordinates to IRGC so there’s minimal damage & 2) Mossad warned the US of the attack before it happened. No, Mossad did not betray/setup US. It would’ve been done in coordination between Israel/US.)
Turns out, everything worked out, and our guys canceled the champagne: all prerequisites are satisfied for concluding a nuclear deal (by the US) with Iran, after which Iranian oil will start flowing (to the West), replacing Russian oil.
About the “Gordian Knot”
While sometimes share my own assessment as I see the situation, here (in the prior #6 #FSBletters) I conveyed our (Russian government – Kremlin & FSB bosses) vision and plans in the current situation. Such plans also have one more important goal, beside the implementation, which can turn out like the “Ukrainian Blitzkrieg”: internal psychological reassurance in the form of the semblance of a solution. A sort of self-motivation or even self-sustainment.
Moreover, I can’t criticize the plan too strongly either: at least it has more [technically speaking] objective factors than in previous bravura marches. (He is describing the previous delusional plans as if they are military parade marches – everyone just starts marching without thinking)
Europe, and most importantly France will start pressuring Zelensky (President of Ukraine) to get him to capitulate: Their elections are just around the corner, they think in terms of rather simple mercantile categories, and by and large, assess the situation as impressively (sarcasm) as in the 30s of the last century, when an ordinary Austrian artist actively involved himself in geopolitics.
The attack of the Yavoriv facility by Lvov is just part of this general plan: The attack was not on an ordinary Ukrainian military facility, but on a facility of international importance, where there could very well have been active NATO advisors.
The attack was intentionally carried out so that the trajectory of the missile flight went through European (NATO) air. And the West’s reaction is playing right into Russian plans: West is convinced that it can completely strangle Russia without ever unsheathing its sword.
My personal conclusion – a large-scale international conflict is unfolding at a rapid pace. (Domestically) Russia has aggressively mobilized the power resources (riot police, etc.) and in classical terms we have entered the stage of fascisization. (Russia is now a fascist country structurally) If the West is hoping that we (Russia as a country) we will self-immolate in this mode, then we (Russia as a whole) have blossoming panic-calls for large-scale external aggression. The inevitability of the collapse of the nation (Russia) with the systematic execution of the West’s strategy (in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is obvious to many of us (author probably means FSB analysts, or maybe Russian people in general). Therefore, many such people that were placing blame squarely on Putin for his adventurism, albeit without vocalizing it, now consider the option of external aggression as the only one left to survive: “What else can we do?” (The nuance in Russian is critical to convey - he does not place himself into the category people who think this way)
The attempt to force a rat into the corner to methodically crush it may not turn out to have such a methodical result.
This of course is only my view, a subjective view, but that we have moved from the stage of denying reality to working on addressing the question of resistance is fact.
Yes, we no longer have an economy, nor do we have a capable army, but the psychological readiness of the West for war is also assessed as even lower.
That Kiev would last 3 whole days was barely believed by anyone here on the first day (of the invasion). That Ukraine would hold for 10 days – they didn’t believe it in the Pentagon, nor in our Defense Ministry, nor anywhere else.
A new reality has arrived. There are no hopes for a “Victory in Ukraine” – even the taking of Kiev would yield nothing, and even the taking of the entire Ukraine would not lead to victory.
And the prospect of such a “capture” (of Kiyv or of Ukraine) do not appear very realistic. To put it mildly.
And Russia has turned into a different nation: The war has affected everyone psychologically.
The category of “how it used to be” has totally disappeared.
Current Russia has no survival outside of a military expansion regime.
The tiniest decrease in internal mobilization will lead to an unprecedented internal upheaval – there is more steam under the lid than we can handle, so the only technical solution is to redirect that steam toward other objects.
There is no place for Russia in the current political world order, inside Russia there is no organizational resource capable of a systemic coup and a change of power.
Takes time to reach a state of complete chaos, right here and now the large scale system that is Russia will not fall apart [this is not Cuba with its quantitative localization]. Minimal internal mobilization of the population will be sufficient to redirect the attention of the population.
The question is no longer whether there will be an external war, but in its forms and variations.
Not in the long-term [that no longer exists], but very soon.
Please note: Neither COVID nor the common cold is no longer observed. This is a normal story when everyone & everything is mobilized. Afterward, of course there will be relaxation and a “hangover,” but right now everyone is too involved in what is happening – no one is indifferent.
The state from the effect of “action on adrenaline” is an extreme situation – it is a characteristic state for both individuals and society as a whole. A Russia beyond the boundaries of this state can no longer be observed. It is also impossible to get stuck in this state – as I wrote before.
A rabbit, for example, can also sprint away from a threat without stopping - until the heart bursts.
Therefore, the decision to "change the external environment" technically appears to be without alternative.
Not a “correct” one (the decision), but precisely without alternative from the point of view of the current system in Russia.
The situation in the world is such that the old format of coexistence is fully destroyed.
Even if we allow that theoretically Shoigu (Russian Minister of Defence) will be blamed for everything tomorrow, who “lied, slipped in false data and unleashed a war,” and is “convicted and shot himself” - will change nothing with the West.
For the West, today’s Russia has become an unacceptable threat, and even the departure of V.V. Putin will not change that calculus. For Germany in ’45 the question of Hitler’s death also could not become an answer formulated as “The guilty is dead, we are innocent.”
Overall, All old models of behavior & analysis – all this is now irrelevant.
A month ago, I would have considered a plan for a Ukrainian Blitzkrieg as falsified, but today I consider a scenario of a large-scale international conflict as quite possible.
Russia has approached this with an entire set of arguments, main one being – “We have no other choice.” Why there is no other choice – is a question that is always answered in very different ways.
The West will say that we started all this, we can say that we “were defending ourselves, and you responded unreasonably.” And every point of view will have a lot of followers.
Let me remind you for a second that Hitler did not force the population of Germany into war - they wanted it much more than our population wants this war.
Of course, there is also a chance that our powers-that-be choose a traditional strategy of “lets sit through this, wait it out, and we will see how it all resolves.”
Previously, we practiced this strategy in cases of force majeure from the very top.
But right now, I don’t really believe it: the processes in motion are so large-scale and intense [in terms of time, in terms of emotions], so…
Of course, we can fall apart organizationally the moment an external campaign starts [in any shape that could take].
We (Russia) could start an external war and not show up for it ourselves (entire Russia) because of the internal disintegration that such a turn of events would cause.
Here we are already talking about extreme [atypical] scenarios, which are distinguished by the fact that they are almost not amenable to precise logical analysis.
No analyst could’ve provided an overview of the results of the First or Second World Wars before they began.
On the other hand, history remembers Idi Amin and his attempt to score a “little win” against Tanzania.
But, unfortunately, the global scale of consequences of those actions and current ones is monstrously different. It's not easy for us to rebound.
P.S. In our structure (in the FSB), everyone really misses the good old days when the "Toxin development facility" was recognized by the leadership as key current threat to Russia's security.
Meitä on kuitenkin kokoomuslaisia ja persujakin siinä kuin kepulaisiakin tuottajajärjestössä. Keskustan vanhaa maailmaa edustavat papat eivät edusta Keskustan nuorta kaartia mitä sieltä tiedän jakolinjaa vanhojen naamojen ja nuorempien puoluejohtajien välillä. Mutta siis, Kepu ja MTK? Moni viljelijä on kepulainen, kuten kokoomuslainen ja persuja. Mä nyt hämmennyin maaseutunuorena tuosta.
