Former President of Poland: In the long term, China wants to vassalise Russia. Erdogan is playing his game well. Le Pen will get a beating for her love of Putin.
WAR
- In 2002, I had a long, private one-on-one conversation with Putin. He told me directly that for him one of the most important tasks was to rebuild a great Russia. The obsession with this, and therefore with conquering Ukraine, was growing in him. Putin's initial dream was increasingly becoming a plan," says former president Aleksander Kwasniewski in an interview with Gazeta.pl.
RUSSIA
Jacek Gądek: - Putin has been in power for 22 years. Do you think he planned war with Ukraine from the beginning?
Aleksander Kwaśniewski: - Did he plan this war at the beginning of his presidency? I doubt it. But he certainly dreamed of conquering Ukraine even then. I have actually proof of this.
What proof?
I had a long, private, one-on-one conversation with Putin in 2002. He told me plainly that one of the most important tasks for him was to rebuild a great Russia. Just as he believed that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest disaster of the 20th century, so he believed that great Russia should rebuild itself. At the time, he was a young president, had only been in office for two years, and had no instruments to take over Ukraine, but he was already talking about it. Both in conversation with me and later in public. Putin never really recognised Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a people.
I think that Putin's obsession with a great Russia, and therefore with conquering Ukraine, was growing. Over the years, he has seized successive opportunities to rebuild the empire on the one hand and test the West's reaction on the other. After the war with Georgia in 2008, that reaction was too weak, as it was in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and the detachment of Donbass. This only encouraged Putin to prepare a full-scale war with Ukraine. Putin's initial dream increasingly became a plan.
Why now?
I see several explanations. The first: Putin is getting older.
He is 70 years old...
...and he won't get any younger. Two: 22 years of one-man rule means a disconnect from reality. Third: Putin looked at the world and decided that the timing was favorable.
Because?
According to Putin, the US is in crisis because Joe Biden as an elderly man will not take harsh action. Because, according to Putin, everything is weak in Europe after the Angela Merkel era and is yet to be built anew. He thought that China would not stand in his way because it had similar plans for Taiwan. He also believed that he had the money to finance the war, because Russia had built up a huge surplus thanks to the oil and gas trade. Finally, he saw the choice of an inexperienced actor as president of Ukraine as facilitating the war. Putin expected a blitzkrieg and launched a war.
Almost a month on, the mass of commentary is that Putin has already lost the war. But is this not wishful thinking?
In the long term, Putin will indeed lose. For - firstly - Ukraine is being born before our eyes, even if it is physically destroyed. It is no longer possible for Ukraine to be part of Russia other than under occupation and terror, and Russia does not have the strength to occupy it all. After 30 years of Ukrainian independence, Putin has finally helped Ukraine to believe in its own identity, strength and pride. The Ukrainians will be Russia's enemies for centuries to come.
Putin has already lost also because the world has seen his true face. I cannot imagine that - even after a truce or peace - Putin can return to the salons. He will always be regarded as a war criminal. But should one talk to Putin as President of Russia? Yes, you should. But you absolutely must not believe him.
In the short term, Putin has not won either, because he has buried himself in the war - after all, it can last for months. In the medium term, on the other hand, if Putin succeeds in capturing Kiev and installing an obedient government there, then with lying propaganda he can strengthen his position in Russia. But this would be a Pyrrhic success.
UKRAINE
For the time being, Putin is leveling Ukraine to the ground and killing civilians. Will Ukraine have the potential to rise from this rubble?
There are examples of countries - like Poland - that have risen from the ruins. After all, after the Second World War, despite abandoning the Marshall Plan, Poland was rebuilt with great social effort. Under conditions of limited sovereignty, but without the threat of physical extermination, it was possible to rebuild Warsaw, lay the foundations of industry and do many other great things. Ukraine's potential is not inferior to ours.
If the war does not end in occupation, and the Ukrainians are able to live in their own country, even at the cost of giving up NATO but with a presence in the European Union, they will be able to rebuild the country. Especially with the help of the EU and with encouraging Ukrainians to return to their homeland. Ukrainians are well educated, undemoralised and not sick with satiety laziness.
But when? That's a distant vision while the bombs are still falling.
Maybe in a few years. Ukraine, out of the ruins, can emerge more modern, more self-identical, more aware and hungry for development.
The minimum scenario for a Ukrainian victory is what?
Today, resistance every day is a victory. Kyiv's persistence is a victory. The presence of President Volodymyr Zelensky in the capital and the action of the state are daily victories. A cease-fire, although I do not believe in it, would be a success. Reducing the number of victims - also. But Zelenski's biggest problem will be if the possibility of a return to 24 February - the state before the invasion - is on the negotiating table. This would mean accepting that Ukraine has no power over Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Would this be accepted by Ukrainians as a wise compromise or a betrayal? I cannot answer that myself, but I do know that it would be a very risky moment for Zelensky.
For the time being, there are no such negotiations. Putin will fight in the belief that he will defeat Ukraine.
Could Zelenski do more than he has done so far?
He is an excellent wartime leader and so keeps in touch with the nation. In terms of communication, he is phenomenal. He stays in Kyiv, he mobilises and inspires faith, he builds morale - he can do nothing better at this stage.
His emphasis on the West is always on point. He generally always says the same thing, but uses different, very pertinent arguments. When he speaks in the US Congress, he reproaches the Americans: you are not helping to defend the skies over Ukraine, and yet your greatest misfortunes came from the skies - at Pearl Harbour as a result of the Japanese raid and on September 11, when terrorists attacked the US. These are arguments that even a poorly educated American can understand.
Speaking to the Germans, on the other hand, he emphasises the expectations of German leadership. He is very clever in building arguments towards various partners, weaving in symbolic and emotional elements. This is having an effect, since the West - and mainly the US - is handing over further batches of weapons.
UNITED STATES
US and President Joe Biden are the authentic leaders of the free world?
Let's close our eyes and imagine that today the US president is Donald Trump. A man who questioned the relevance of NATO, insulted European allies, was fascinated by Putin and pursued narcissistic, selfish policies. The very fact that Biden is president is worth appreciating.
Biden is a man of principle and tries to live by them. I've read a book by Hunter Biden - Joe Biden's very difficult son - called Beautiful Things. What shines through is the belief that Joe Biden's love and closeness to his son helped a lost man. Biden never pushed his son away, though it may have been convenient for him.
He is a man of persistent persuasion - he reaches out to people, he explains. He does not impose his opinion, but it is thanks to him that the West speaks with one voice and NATO has strengthened. Biden is fulfilling his role beyond expectations. Let's hope he has enough health and energy, which is not easy at his age. We are indeed very lucky to have Biden. Without him, we would be in a black hole.
Initially, however, Biden was shifting responsibility for Europe onto Europe's own shoulders in order to focus on competing with China?
Today I no longer see myself succumbing to such a temptation. Putin, by unleashing the war in Ukraine, helped reverse the trend of shifting the US's primary focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific, which in US politics had already begun under President Barack Obama. For years, America had been increasingly focused on its rivalry with China rather than its presence in Europe. Therefore, at the NATO summit in Newport in 2014. - under President Obama - a decision was made to require countries to raise their military spending to 2 per cent of GDP. Trump then obsequiously demanded that Europe increase this spending in order to focus on competing with China himself. Biden was also close to this idea until Putin started a war in Europe.
The prospect of a NATO-Russia conflict is not out of the question?
Putin says outright that the main threat to Russia comes from NATO, because the Pact - as Putin lies - wants to destroy Russia and its great values. NATO must therefore be prepared for a scenario in which Russia attacks Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland. In the various scenarios that must be considered, a NATO war with Russia is not out of the question. In fact, it has been a long time since this confrontation was as close as it is today.
CHINA
Which side is China on?
They are on both sides. On the one hand, they say they are opposed to the war, but on the other they are comfortable with the Russian argument that Ukraine is historically part of the great Russia and should be part of the motherland. They say this because they have adopted the same attitude towards Hong Kong and now towards Taiwan, where there is also the threat of a major armed conflict.
For years, China has maintained close political and economic relations with Ukraine. It cannot therefore turn its back on Kyiv completely. The Chinese Ambassador to Kyiv has stated that China supports Ukraine and will not participate in any attack on it, but this is only said by the Ambassador, not by the Head of the Foreign Ministry or the President. China is watching the war and has declared that it is prepared to play a role in the search for a peaceful solution. However, we have heard nothing about any concrete action by Beijing in this direction, so they are either doing it the Chinese way, which means discreetly, or they are doing nothing.
And China, as a power, holds the key to forcing an end to the war?
No, but China's attitude is a very important factor which can either make the situation in Ukraine very difficult or help it.
For China, any dispute between the US and Russia, for example, is beneficial because it involves America, which reduces US involvement in the Pacific. The next few days will show which way China will go and whether it wants to play an active role.
So far, Chinese President Xi Jinping has talked about a "strategic partnership" with Russia and a "friendship without borders". Do you see a chance to pull China towards the West despite this?
It is not feasible. China will not join the West, but it can say: you wanted to have trade wars with us, but it doesn't pay you, let's cooperate pragmatically.
All the words that Xi Jinping speaks about friendship with Russia are declarations - neighbourly and characterised by memories. In the long term, China wants to vassalise Russia. After all, if we compare China's economic, demographic and military power with Russia, Moscow has a lot to fear. Russia is experiencing a demographic catastrophe, it is depopulating, and Siberia is uninhabited, while across the river there are several hundred million Chinese who would be happy to settle there.
The Russians, weakened by the war with Ukraine, are doomed to be China's vassal?
The Russians stand no chance in a clash with China. Economically Beijing is still a rising power. Russia only has an advantage when it comes to nuclear weapons, but another 10-20 years and this last advantage will disappear, as China is spending colossal amounts of money on armaments.
What does Russia have? It has an army, the myth of which is now in ruins. It also has gas and oil, but these are increasingly being replaced by renewable energy sources. The Chinese will patiently but firmly exploit the weakness of Russia, which will suffer increasing losses in the long term due to the war with Ukraine and the sanctions of the West.
The US can force China to at least not support Russia?
China is a superpower that must be handled like an egg. After all, if the Chinese don't produce something, entire production lines in the US and Europe will come to a standstill. We saw this in the Covid-19 pandemic. Economically, China holds the whole world in check.
GERMANY
Will the anti-Russian turn in Germany be permanent and end with the withdrawal from Russian gas and oil?
It is difficult to predict today, but this turn must be taken seriously - it will have colossal consequences in German politics. In Germany - in politics and business - there has always been a strong group of Russlandversteher, people who "understand Russia"...
...especially in the SPD, which is in power today and has a chancellor.
After the Russian aggression, the Germans who "understand Russia" are shattered - they are in a state of mental collapse, because they absolutely did not expect war. They expected Putin to push, to demand, to look for taunts, but to behave rationally. Putin, however, has become irrational and for many pro-Russian politicians in Germany this comes as a shock. Prof Klaus Bachmann points out that some of them are already moving to extreme anti-Russian positions, which is typical of neophytes.
The turn in Germany is happening and I am convinced that it will be permanent. But not instantaneous. As far as Russian gas and oil are concerned, it is not only Germany but also other European countries - e.g. Greece, Romania, Bulgaria - that are dependent on their supplies. Germany cannot give up Russian raw materials overnight, but the first decisions of Olaf Scholz's government are already to postpone the closure of nuclear power plants and thus reduce dependence on Russia.
Germany simply has to get its energy from somewhere. After all, we are talking about the largest industrial economy in Europe. The British live from the capital market, others have income from tourism, and the Germans must produce cars, or they will slide into crisis.
Do you know the current Olaf Scholz?
I know him and I trust him. I know that he is a very competent and reliable politician. If he promises something, he delivers it. He will look for solutions, but giving up Russian oil and gas is not a one-month project.
TURKEY
Turkey has an important role in forcing an end to the war?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is playing his game. It has to be said that, while disagreeing with his domestic policy and attitude to the EU, he is playing it well. Last year, with Turkey's support, Azerbaijan successfully launched the recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia's troops were smashed, and Azerbaijan took what it wanted, while inviting the Russians in as myopods - peacekeepers to separate the sides.
Erdogan has a plan to assist those countries that fall within the broader Turkish language and influence zone, while not openly conflicting with Russia.
Now Turkey is supplying weapons, including combat drones, to Ukraine. Erdogan also offers Turkey as a venue for peace talks.
Erdogan's stance on the war in Ukraine is this: we don't agree with this war and we offer a place for peace talks. But since it is not our war, let no one complain that we are selling - and this is important: we are selling - our military equipment to Ukraine. It is to Erdogan's advantage to weaken Russia in the long term. Regionally, I think Erdogan will soon want to exploit this in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
EUROPEAN UNION
Are pro-Putin formations and politicians now bankrupt in the European Union? Irretrievably?
Such formations will be in retreat in the EU in the coming months. In France, if Marine Le Pen enters the second round of the presidential election - which would be most convenient for Emmanuel Macron - she will get a beating for her love of Putin.
Matteo Salvini, as was evident from his reaction to the President of Przemyśl handing him a T-shirt with Putin on it, would like to run away and forget about how he praised Putin.
Is it even possible to escape from this?
From their fascination with Putin, many would now like to escape, because people in Europe see images of war and death that are Putin's fault. Everyone sees the one-sidedness of his aggression. Any argument that it was supposedly Ukraine that threatened Russia is nonsense. No one will believe that Zelenski is a neo-Nazi. For how could a Jew whose family was largely killed in the Holocaust be a Nazi? How could Zelenski, who grew up in a Russian language culture, want to attack Russia? After all, this is Kremlin propaganda madness.
Pro-Putin politicians - I repeat - will be on the retreat in the coming months, but if the war continues for a long time, then, unfortunately, knowing the nature of people, and especially of those who are saturated in Europe, we will be preoccupied with other topics and the war will recede into the background. We may become indifferent - that is a great risk.
POLAND
Is the PiS government going back to the West?
I hope so. Today everyone is aware that we need more unity, because in the face of such conflicts no one can manage alone. I think this will weaken anti-European inclinations and stop ideas of breaking up the EU or imitating Brexit, because these would be suicidal.
Do you see a reset when it comes to Poland's position in the EU?
This reset is a fact. The world is hearing that more than 2 million refugees have already arrived in Poland and are finding help - already at the border people are waiting with food and offering a roof over their heads. It is the open-heartedness of Poles that builds the image of Poland as a country of solidarity. The help provided by Poles to refugees has made a colossal impression in the West. It should also be said here that similar things are said about Slovaks and Romanians, but of course we have the largest number of refugees.
After a reset, however, the system returns to its previous stability.
Social and political resets are not like the computer and the telephone. A change has taken place and nothing will be the same again as it was before this war. All the while, let us hope that it does not spread to the west. In worse scenarios, the war will also spread to western Ukraine. There is also a risk, which cannot be ruled out with absolute certainty, that Putin will decide to attack Lithuania, Latvia or Poland. Then it would not be possible to speak of a reset, but of a NATO-Russia war.
Assuming, however, that Ukraine - in a heroic battle and with the support of the world - forces the Russians to withdraw, then the world will certainly no longer be the same. I cannot imagine that it will be possible to go back to a similar policy as before with Russia, and especially with Putin's Russia. It will be necessary to maintain sanctions for years and an absolute lack of trust in the Kremlin.
The PiS government's policy towards the EU will not be like before either?
Understanding the need for cooperation in the EU will mitigate politicians like the PiS leaders. In the face of the Russian threat, it is necessary to move from the margins into the EU's decision-making currents.
Tensions are to be expected in Poland. Long-term state policy must replace the reflexes of the heart. In time, fatigue and, inevitably, tension will set in, and cynical politicians can exploit this. At such moments of trial, characters are tested. Some politicians will turn out to be cowards and egoists, while others will turn out to be committed and courageous, even if we did not suspect them of this beforehand.
Source (in Polish):
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadom...u-mialem-z-putinem-rozmowe-w-cztery-oczy.html
No, nyt totuus naapurin kyvyistä ja varsinkin resursseista tällä saralla onkin sitten jotain ihan muuta. Käytännössä aivan onnettomat varusmieskulit ajelee niitä täydennyksiä kuorkeilla monesti ilman mitään suojaa
Vastustajaa ei sovi aliarvioida, mutta on ihan järjetöntä yrittää varustaa takaporrasta vastaan iskevät osat käytännössä liki olematonta uhkaa vastaan tai kun ei kyetä siihen varustamisen tasoon niin pyyhitään koko joukot vahvuuksista, kun ei niillä enää muka pärjää
Ja sitten Ukrainassa jopa kodinturva tason makkaranpaisto porukat romuttaa huoltoa ihan surutta
