DefMonin arvio Khersonin alueen siltojen kunnosta. Hänellä oli eilen samanlainen kuva mutta siinä oli kartan päällä satellittikuvia yms. Tämä on hieman luettavampi (tarkempi kuva löytyy twitteristä):
LÄHDE
This is my assessment of the road bridges in the Kherson area.
Blue = operational
Yellow = Unfit for for trucks and heavy equipment / Damaged
Red= Not fit for any kind of traffic.
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Hänen ketjussa lisää pohdintaa Khersonin alueen tilanteesta:
The AFU has possibly isolated (or will do so in the future) the Kherson region from it's supply route and divided it in to two. I assume the two railway connections over the Dnipro will be incapacitated if they aren't already. I did see reports about the southern bridge being hit
This does not mean RuAF are completely isolated. Any pontoon bridge would probably be targeted by the AFU. They can still use barges, helicopters and boats to transport supplies over the Dnipro. But this process will take more time, and be more vulnerable to attacks by the AFU.
When it comes to barges, there are not many areas with good road access on both sides of the river. Down by Kherson city, there is only one, it's right next to the Antonovskiy head.
Looking further up stream we can see better options by Nova Kakhovka. But they will end up on the wrong side of the Inhulets if they want to supply Kherson City area.
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My conclusion is, RuAF are not cut off, however their logistics system is going to have to do some problem solving. This will be even harder when taking HIMARS in to consideration, as they can not stockpile supplies on the south side of the Dnipro.
Thinking about how long Mariupol lasted with almost no possibility to get supplies, the Russians might be able to stick around. However, their motivation is probably not even close to the motivation of the Heroes of Mariupol.
It was suggested by
@secretsqrl123 the AFU are probably trying to communicate with the RU decision makers in the area, trying to convince them their situation is hopeless. This might include a show of strength by the AFU involving massive firepower concentrated in one area.
I think this is likely, I also think hitting the Dar'ivka bridge in a perfect line was a form of communication. UA are also indication they are trying to do minimal damage to the infrastructure, but at the same time achieve their goals.
My mention about Mariupol was not to compare the two scenarios, it was simply to point you can last a long time even if you don't have perfect resupply conditions.
Häneltä kysyttiin arviota "taskussa" olevien joukkojen määrälle: How many troops do you think Russia could have on this side of the Dnieper? I saw that there were about 13 BTGs but that is not a very reliable unit of measurement.
Hänen vastaus: Anything I say would be a wild guess, but the number of 15k circulating seems reasonable.
tass.com
