John Spencer kirjoittanut ajatuksiaan Khersonin taistelusta:
Thoughts on the situation in Ukraine and the battle of Kherson that began weeks ago. Ukraine is poised to achieve the biggest operational victory since the Battles of Kyiv (IMO the only decisive/strategic victory), Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, &others.
All views about how the war in Ukraine is going must be viewed through the strategic and operational goals of both sides in this phase of the war.
Ukraine won the war for Ukraine in April at the battle of Kyiv, forcing Russia to change their strategic objective to “taking full control of Donbas region.” But as Russia has said, if they take the Donbas/Southern Ukraine, they will refocus on taking all of Ukraine/Kyiv.
Russian strategic goals today are the seizure/control/retain the Donbas and key southern areas. Ukraine’s objective is to re-claim all Ukrainian land and force the Russian military to withdraw from Ukraine.
Ukrainian strategy can be summarized by “avoiding the enemy’s strengths.” Defend where needed & allow Russians to die against Ukrainian forces or attack through long range precision strikes (artillery/HIMARS) that allow Ukraine to avoid costly attritional close battles.
Make no mistake. Ukraine cannot achieve its goals through fires alone. If you want to retake, retain, control land, cities, Ukrainian populations – you have to close with and seize, secure, and defend those urban areas.
Fires are key for Ukraine, a smaller and weaker (quantity of needed equipment – artillery, tanks, IFVs) force to destroy critical requirements to Russian strengths & strategy – i.e. their logistics (ammo, fuel, food) & C2 – thus causing them to culminate before close fights.
Kherson is important because if seized by Ukraine, it would be the first successful major offensive operation in achieving Ukraine’s goals of reclaiming all Ukraine land and removing the only Russian force west of the Dnipro.
IMO Ukraine cannot just siege Kherson. That is not the approach I see unfolding. Ukraine cares about the civilians trapped in the city. They also do not have the time to just siege the city.
The more time that passes, Russia can shift forces from other areas to Southern Ukraine like we have seen recently.
Ukraine seeks to avoid a massive fight in the Kherson urban area. They do not want to destroy Kherson city to save it. They do not want to kill Ukrainian civilians or the city’s physical terrain and infrastructure.
HIMARS and other fires isolate Russian forces West of the Dnipro. This has included taking out key bridges, road intersections, ammunition supplies, command & control sites. Prevent/constrain the Russian forces from being resupplied, reinforced, or having a withdrawal option.
I do see Ukraine retaking Kherson, where Russia is weak at the moment. This will be a major win in claiming the initiative, international information campaign & maintaining support for Ukraine. But Russia maintains strength in the Donbas. Major fights still to come.
Bottom line. Yes, Russia is in running out of steam and capability, but it is still a major threat and Ukraine will not be able to achieve their goals without massive amounts of western weapons and support, more than the amounts flowing or promised to arrive today.
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