ido59
Majuri
Nyt on Mainilan laukaukset ammuttu. Sitten tulevat ohjukset ja raketit.
Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Tätä joskus pohdittiin yliopistolla. Iso osa läpimenossa oli äärimmäisen tarkka kysymysten asettelu ja näkökulman rajaus.
Rajajääkäri
Ylipäällikkö
Noh, ehkä "viittävailla" Naton jäseniä.
Antares
Respected Leader
BBC kirjoittanut Venäjän rekrytoinnista:
BBC News, Volosovo, western Russia
The town of Volosovo, near St Petersburg, is booming. Not the economy - it's the loudspeakers.
Like many towns in Russia, Volosovo has them installed on tall poles that line the main street. Traditionally they are used for playing patriotic music during national holidays. Now, though, they have a different purpose.
"Two volunteer artillery battalions are being formed. We invite men from 18 to 60 years old to join," the speakers blare out.
It's a message that's being repeated up and down this vast country. On social media, on TV and on billboards, men are being urged to sign short-term contracts with the military to fight in Ukraine.
In the face of significant losses in the conflict, the authorities have launched a recruitment drive for the Russian army.
I stop one man on the street in Volosovo and ask him if he supports the call-up for volunteers. "Yes! If I were young I'd go, but I'm too old now," he tells me, clenching his fists. "We should bomb them!"
But most people in the town seem less enthusiastic. "[The war] is too painful to even talk about," one woman complains. "Killing your brothers is wrong." I ask her what she would say if one of her relatives wanted to join. "Why go? Only their bodies will be brought back."
And many bodies are.
Russia does not give numbers, but Western officials say between 70,000 and 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since it launched its invasion six months ago.
In order to attract fresh recruits, the authorities are offering volunteers huge sums of money, plots of land and even premium places for their children in Russian schools.
Recruiters have even been visiting Russian prisons to sign up inmates, promising them freedom and money.
Investigative journalist Roman Dobrokhotov says the recruitment drive is a sign of desperation on the part of the authorities: "This is not the type of soldiers needed for a victorious war. The Kremlin still hopes that quantity can win over quality. That they can get these hundreds of thousands of desperate people with their debts and just throw them into the conflict zone."
Despite the eyewatering amounts of cash on offer to potential recruits - up to £4,700 ($5,700) a month in some cases - Roman says the reality is different.
"People don't actually see this money," he says. "They are returning [from Ukraine] now and telling us journalists about how they were deceived. This is also influencing the situation, this lack of trust in our government, so I don't think this strategy will be successful."
But some are happy to join up.
Nina Chubarina's son Yevgeny left their village in the northern region of Karelia to join a volunteer battalion. Nina says her son, who had no military experience, was given a gun and sent straight into Ukraine.
He was killed just days later. He was 24 years old.
Nina agrees to meet me in a park near Moscow, where she has found part-time work in a bread factory. She says the monotonous task of packing loaves takes her mind off the loss of her son.
She remembers pleading with her son not to go to Ukraine.
"I tried to talk him out of it. I cried. I said, 'There's a war, you'll be killed!' He said, 'Mum, everything will be fine.'"
Nina is critical of how the authorities recruit volunteers to fight in Ukraine.
"They just send them in like dumb little chickens! They'd hardly even held a gun before. They're cannon fodder. The generals think, 'We've got a volunteer: great, in you go!'"
Not everyone is as keen to sign up as Yevgeny.
Travelling around this country, you are not left with the impression that the Russian people are all fully behind the "special military operation," as the Kremlin likes to call it.
The number of cars on Russian roads displaying the pro-war "Z" symbol is still relatively few. Experts say that the numbers of volunteers joining up are low.
Military analyst Pavel Luzin says people here are not ready to sacrifice themselves for their president.
"The problem for the Kremlin is that most Russian people are not going to die for Putin or for the restoration of 'the great Empire'. Recruitment isn't possible in current circumstances because there is no civil consensus in Russia for the war.
"Compare this with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are ready to fight."
With thanks to Alla Konstantinova from Mediazona.
-
Kamil Galeev kirjoittanut ketjun Daria Duginasta:
Ukraine war: Russia appeals for new recruits for war effort
By Will VernonBBC News, Volosovo, western Russia
The town of Volosovo, near St Petersburg, is booming. Not the economy - it's the loudspeakers.
Like many towns in Russia, Volosovo has them installed on tall poles that line the main street. Traditionally they are used for playing patriotic music during national holidays. Now, though, they have a different purpose.
"Two volunteer artillery battalions are being formed. We invite men from 18 to 60 years old to join," the speakers blare out.
It's a message that's being repeated up and down this vast country. On social media, on TV and on billboards, men are being urged to sign short-term contracts with the military to fight in Ukraine.
In the face of significant losses in the conflict, the authorities have launched a recruitment drive for the Russian army.
I stop one man on the street in Volosovo and ask him if he supports the call-up for volunteers. "Yes! If I were young I'd go, but I'm too old now," he tells me, clenching his fists. "We should bomb them!"
But most people in the town seem less enthusiastic. "[The war] is too painful to even talk about," one woman complains. "Killing your brothers is wrong." I ask her what she would say if one of her relatives wanted to join. "Why go? Only their bodies will be brought back."
And many bodies are.
Russia does not give numbers, but Western officials say between 70,000 and 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since it launched its invasion six months ago.
In order to attract fresh recruits, the authorities are offering volunteers huge sums of money, plots of land and even premium places for their children in Russian schools.
Recruiters have even been visiting Russian prisons to sign up inmates, promising them freedom and money.
Investigative journalist Roman Dobrokhotov says the recruitment drive is a sign of desperation on the part of the authorities: "This is not the type of soldiers needed for a victorious war. The Kremlin still hopes that quantity can win over quality. That they can get these hundreds of thousands of desperate people with their debts and just throw them into the conflict zone."
Despite the eyewatering amounts of cash on offer to potential recruits - up to £4,700 ($5,700) a month in some cases - Roman says the reality is different.
"People don't actually see this money," he says. "They are returning [from Ukraine] now and telling us journalists about how they were deceived. This is also influencing the situation, this lack of trust in our government, so I don't think this strategy will be successful."
But some are happy to join up.
Nina Chubarina's son Yevgeny left their village in the northern region of Karelia to join a volunteer battalion. Nina says her son, who had no military experience, was given a gun and sent straight into Ukraine.
He was killed just days later. He was 24 years old.
Nina agrees to meet me in a park near Moscow, where she has found part-time work in a bread factory. She says the monotonous task of packing loaves takes her mind off the loss of her son.
She remembers pleading with her son not to go to Ukraine.
"I tried to talk him out of it. I cried. I said, 'There's a war, you'll be killed!' He said, 'Mum, everything will be fine.'"
Nina is critical of how the authorities recruit volunteers to fight in Ukraine.
"They just send them in like dumb little chickens! They'd hardly even held a gun before. They're cannon fodder. The generals think, 'We've got a volunteer: great, in you go!'"
Not everyone is as keen to sign up as Yevgeny.
Travelling around this country, you are not left with the impression that the Russian people are all fully behind the "special military operation," as the Kremlin likes to call it.
The number of cars on Russian roads displaying the pro-war "Z" symbol is still relatively few. Experts say that the numbers of volunteers joining up are low.
Military analyst Pavel Luzin says people here are not ready to sacrifice themselves for their president.
"The problem for the Kremlin is that most Russian people are not going to die for Putin or for the restoration of 'the great Empire'. Recruitment isn't possible in current circumstances because there is no civil consensus in Russia for the war.
"Compare this with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are ready to fight."
With thanks to Alla Konstantinova from Mediazona.
-
Kamil Galeev kirjoittanut ketjun Daria Duginasta:
On Darya Dugina's death
Darya was an ambitious young woman. She leveraged her father's *international* brand to build herself a network in Russia. She was indeed smarter than an average golden kid and viewed herself as a potential national leader
In the last months she would not shut up about bad Russian military performance. She constantly criticised Shoygu (privately) and insisted that if *she* was a minister of defence, it'd be alright. For some reason, she was trying to pitch herself a a minister of defense, Idk why
Becoming a minister of defence was a new topic that emerged only recently. Previously to that, she was obsessed with Le Pen. She constantly talked about how great, amazing and misunderstood Marine Le Pen is, boasted how well she knew her and clearly viewed Le Pen as a role model
What was interesting about Darya was an extreme contrast between her public and her private discourse. Publicly, she largely followed her father's footsteps. Publicly she complained about too gentle mode of war in Ukraine and called for the tougher measure against "nonhumans"
On public Darya was fiery and uncompromising. Privately though she was the opposite of that, a sort of chameleon. She'd figure out what her interlocutors think and present herself as their thinker. If a (useful) interlocutor was against the war, than she was against the war too
On public she was a hawk, calling for escalation, tribunals in every Ukrainian city, lynching Azovstal defenders, etc. Privately though, she would mock the entire DPR/LPR project, Russian irredentism, etc. if she felt that would help her to win her interlocutor's sympathy
Audience largely perceived her as dad's attribute. Publicly she played by the rules and leveraged it. Privately though, she hated that. She wanted to be seen as a political figure in her own right. That's why she took "Platonova" nickname and tried to brand herself as such
Whenever Darya felt it could win her a sympathy, she mocked and criticised her dad's insane and ridiculous agenda. She would also argue that most of her social circle (other Russian golden kids) share this feeling. Most feel only contempt towards their fathers
Psychologically this may be understandable. Imagine yourself as a golden kid. On the one hand, you owe your dad everything and you would be a total zero without his resources. On the other hand, you want to be seen as great and amazing in your own right, not a dad's attribute
In search of glory and self-affirmation, you'd rather distance yourself from dad. But the more you do that, the more of zero you become. The world doesn't give a damn about you as an individual. For them you are and will always be the Daughter of Dugin
Of course you'll hate him
Didn't you find it funny that the media are describing this 30 year old woman as a child or a kid? On the one hand, it sounds kinda absurd. On the other hand, it is very, very true. Darya never could brand herself to the outer world as an independent person. Only as Dugin's child
Many describe Darya as "innocent". But she was the opposite of that. I don't rejoice at the death of conscripts or rural idiots lured into the army by high wages. But a golden kid who leveraged war and genocide to boost her career, that's as close as you can get to unmixed evil
The end
Darya was an ambitious young woman. She leveraged her father's *international* brand to build herself a network in Russia. She was indeed smarter than an average golden kid and viewed herself as a potential national leader
In the last months she would not shut up about bad Russian military performance. She constantly criticised Shoygu (privately) and insisted that if *she* was a minister of defence, it'd be alright. For some reason, she was trying to pitch herself a a minister of defense, Idk why
Becoming a minister of defence was a new topic that emerged only recently. Previously to that, she was obsessed with Le Pen. She constantly talked about how great, amazing and misunderstood Marine Le Pen is, boasted how well she knew her and clearly viewed Le Pen as a role model
What was interesting about Darya was an extreme contrast between her public and her private discourse. Publicly, she largely followed her father's footsteps. Publicly she complained about too gentle mode of war in Ukraine and called for the tougher measure against "nonhumans"
On public Darya was fiery and uncompromising. Privately though she was the opposite of that, a sort of chameleon. She'd figure out what her interlocutors think and present herself as their thinker. If a (useful) interlocutor was against the war, than she was against the war too
On public she was a hawk, calling for escalation, tribunals in every Ukrainian city, lynching Azovstal defenders, etc. Privately though, she would mock the entire DPR/LPR project, Russian irredentism, etc. if she felt that would help her to win her interlocutor's sympathy
Audience largely perceived her as dad's attribute. Publicly she played by the rules and leveraged it. Privately though, she hated that. She wanted to be seen as a political figure in her own right. That's why she took "Platonova" nickname and tried to brand herself as such
Whenever Darya felt it could win her a sympathy, she mocked and criticised her dad's insane and ridiculous agenda. She would also argue that most of her social circle (other Russian golden kids) share this feeling. Most feel only contempt towards their fathers
Psychologically this may be understandable. Imagine yourself as a golden kid. On the one hand, you owe your dad everything and you would be a total zero without his resources. On the other hand, you want to be seen as great and amazing in your own right, not a dad's attribute
In search of glory and self-affirmation, you'd rather distance yourself from dad. But the more you do that, the more of zero you become. The world doesn't give a damn about you as an individual. For them you are and will always be the Daughter of Dugin
Of course you'll hate him
Didn't you find it funny that the media are describing this 30 year old woman as a child or a kid? On the one hand, it sounds kinda absurd. On the other hand, it is very, very true. Darya never could brand herself to the outer world as an independent person. Only as Dugin's child
Many describe Darya as "innocent". But she was the opposite of that. I don't rejoice at the death of conscripts or rural idiots lured into the army by high wages. But a golden kid who leveraged war and genocide to boost her career, that's as close as you can get to unmixed evil
The end
Hesarin haastattelemien tutkijoiden pohdintoja:
”Venäjän hallinnossa on toki tahoja, jotka ovat tyytymättömiä Putinin sotapolitiikan saamattomuuteen. On siis mahdollista, että tällä iskulla saatetaan pyrkiä herättelemään Putinia ja muuta poliittista johtoa vielä tiukempiin toimiin”, myös Lassila arvioi.
TOINEN vaihtoehto on, että iskun takana on Venäjän turvallisuuspalvelu tai jokin muu valtiollinen toimija.
Yksi syy, miksi Venäjän valtio voisi haluta murhata Duginin, on saadakseen tekosyyn niin sanotulle ruuvien kiristämiselle. Isku voisi toimia oikeutukselle muun muassa sisäisille puhdistuksille tai muille vastaaville toimille, arvioi Gelman.
Toisaalta on kysymisen arvoista, täytyykö tällaista ruuvien kiristämistä enää edes oikeuttaa millään iskuilla. Venäjän oppositio on jo ajettu äärimmäiseen ahtaaseen nurkkaan eikä Putinia merkittävästi uhkaavia tahoja ole.”
www.hs.fi
”Venäjän hallinnossa on toki tahoja, jotka ovat tyytymättömiä Putinin sotapolitiikan saamattomuuteen. On siis mahdollista, että tällä iskulla saatetaan pyrkiä herättelemään Putinia ja muuta poliittista johtoa vielä tiukempiin toimiin”, myös Lassila arvioi.
TOINEN vaihtoehto on, että iskun takana on Venäjän turvallisuuspalvelu tai jokin muu valtiollinen toimija.
Yksi syy, miksi Venäjän valtio voisi haluta murhata Duginin, on saadakseen tekosyyn niin sanotulle ruuvien kiristämiselle. Isku voisi toimia oikeutukselle muun muassa sisäisille puhdistuksille tai muille vastaaville toimille, arvioi Gelman.
Toisaalta on kysymisen arvoista, täytyykö tällaista ruuvien kiristämistä enää edes oikeuttaa millään iskuilla. Venäjän oppositio on jo ajettu äärimmäiseen ahtaaseen nurkkaan eikä Putinia merkittävästi uhkaavia tahoja ole.”
Venäjä | Tappoiko Darja Duginan Ukrainaan kytköksissä oleva vastarintaliike, vai onko taustalla Venäjän sisäinen valtataistelu? Näin asiantuntijat arvioivat
Aleksandr Duginin merkitystä Venäjällä on yliarvioitu lännessä valtavasti. Todellisuudessa hän on kohtalaisen mitätön hahmo, minkä vuoksi on vaikea arvioida, kuka iskusta hyötyisi.
www.hs.fi
Aikaisempien osumien perusteella Himarsin ja Excaliburien osumatarkuus juuri siihen siltaan on ollut muutamia kymmeniä senttejä: aluksi iskemät olivat kuin varoituksena vain yhdellä kaistalla jonossa.
Osuma ammuskuljetukseen voi olla sattuma tai sitten ei: kyllä ukr saamien aseiden tarkkuus varmasti riittää.
Ryssän selustassa olevilta tarkkailijoilta saavat viestin: ”iskekää siltaan 3 min päästä: lihava maali tulossa”.
Niin: Peruuttakaa heti uusien Bemarien, Audien, Mersujen, Volkkareiden, Porschen yms. tilaukset, jos olette erehtyneet sellaisen tekemään.
Coffee Man
Respected Leader
Ei ole suomalaista kirjallisuutta vaikka tarjosin kirjan suomennosta. Hieman yllättäen myös kirjan kirjoittaja asuu Lontoossa tai asui ainakin kirjaa kirjoittaessaan
Erityisesti Putin ja Pietarin alamaailma on erittäin mielenkiintoista lähihistoriaa. Voi jopa sanoa että entinen KGB:n everstiluutnantti oli ennen presidentiksi ryhtymistään jonkinlainen yhteyshenkilö Pietarin hallinnon ja mafian välillä.
Venäjää vuodesta 2000 hallinnut presidentti Vladimir Putin toimi vielä 1990-luvulla Pietarin apulaispormestarina. – Tuolloin alkoi Putinin yhteydenpito rikollisjengien kanssa, ja hän alkoi tavata säännöllisesti Pietarin alamaailmaa, erityisesti vaikutusvaltaista Tambovskaja-rikollisryhmää.
Tutkija: Näin Putinista tuli venäläismafian kumppani – ”Pietaria piti yrittää sekavassa tilanteessa jotenkin hallita”
Arvostettu Venäjä-tutkija, tohtori Mark Galeotti kertoo Iltalehden haastattelussa, miten nykyisestä Venäjän presidentti Vladimir Putinista tuli Pietarissa venäläismafian kumppani.
www.iltalehti.fi
Sama meno on jatkunut myös Moskovasta käsin. Putin ei ole presidenttikausillaan hyökännyt mafian kimppuun vaan on sulauttanut sen yhteen muun hallinnon kanssa. Voidaan jopa sanoa että Putin on monen muun asian ohella maailman vaikutusvaltaisin mafiapäällikkö. Edes italialaiset tai meksikolaiset kollegat eivät pääse lähellekään Putinin tasoa.
Putinin vuonna 2000 alkaneella valtakaudella rikollisjärjestöt, eli ”vorit”, ovat joutuneet uudistumaan, ja nykyisin ne toimivat aiempaa matalammalla profiililla ja työskentelevät valtion hyväksi silloin, kun kutsu käy.
Galeottin mukaan venäläinen mafia on auttanut Kremliä muun muassa Itä-Ukrainassa sekä Krimillä. Kremlin pelikirjasta ovat lähtöisin myös Yhdysvaltojen vaaleja manipuloineet hakkerit.
Galeottin mukaan Putinilla ja Kremlillä on ote myös venäläislähtöisestä järjestäytyneestä kansainvälisestä rikollisuudesta (RBOC), joka operoi Venäjän ulkopuolella muun muassa kaupan, investointien ja maahanmuuton parissa.
Galeottin kirjassa länsimainen vastavakoilu-upseeri kertoo esimerkin erään ulkomailla operoivan, venäläistaustaisen rikollispomon tilanteesta Kremlin otteessa: ”niin kauan kuin hänen pallinsa ovat Moskovassa, venäläiset voivat aina puristaa niitä”.
Galeottin mukaan Kreml käyttää RBOC:ta apuna käydessään ”poliittista sotaa” tai hajottaakseen, hämätäkseen ja demoralisoidakseen länsimaita – erityisesti Eurooppaa.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Tästä twiitistä:
nitter.it
Tuli ensimmäisenä mieleen, että voisiko AF tarkoittaakin Air Force. Sehän selittäisi hyvän ajoituksen. Ja olisihan se ihan huikeeta jos Ukrainan ilmavoimat voisi noin vapaasti jo operoida.
Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)
Locals from occupied #Kherson city report that the automotive Antonisvkiy bridge across the Dnipro river is no more. Today, #Ukraine AF struck the bridge again right at the moment when 9 Russian trucks full of ammo were crossing it. Ammo explosions facilitated its destruction.
nitter.it
Tuli ensimmäisenä mieleen, että voisiko AF tarkoittaakin Air Force. Sehän selittäisi hyvän ajoituksen. Ja olisihan se ihan huikeeta jos Ukrainan ilmavoimat voisi noin vapaasti jo operoida.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Heh, melkoista tuubaa siellä kirjoittelevat. Mitenkäs Moskvan puolustusjärjestelmät? Olivatko kuinka edistyneitä? Ei ryssä ole kyennyt estämään rakettien osumia tai puolustamaan valtaamaansa aluetta ilmatoiminnalta lainkaan siinä mitassa, mitä on odotettu väitetyn suorituskyvyn perusteella.
Tulee mieleen tästä ryssän vastenmielisestä suunnitelmasta, että keskeisintä lienee yritys tyrehdyttää lännen aseapu ”vastuuttomalle Ukrainalle”.
Toinen tavoite - jos perkeleen ryssä sytyttää tai tuhoaa sen voimalan - on aiheuttaa tahalleen radioaktiivinen katastrofi joka loisi asuin- ja oleskelukelvottoman vyöhykkeen ryssän valtaamien Dnjepr-joen itäpuolisten alueiden ja Krimin väliin. Silloin ryssän valtaamat 20% Ukrainasta olisi vuosikymmeniksi erotettu muusta Ukrainasta. Ja voidaan julistaa ryssän saama suuri voitto natseista.
Mä pahoin pelkään, että ryssä vielä tekee tämän pahimman ryssimisen: mitä tahansa pskaa voi odottaa niiltä. Kaikki pannaan tietysti Ukrainan ja Naton syyksi.
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
Eikös tämä ole jo klaari? ABC käyttö Ukrainaa vastaan johtaa vastaiskuun ns. lännestä. Venäjän infra tuhoutuu, samoin laivasto, tukikohdat jne.
Coffee Man
Respected Leader
Maybe we are being too hard on russian tourists… Sometimes they can be really helpful. Like this man taking pictures at russian air defense positions near Yevpatoria, in occupied Crimea. Thank you and keep up the good work!
Mutta false fiagilla voidaan yrittää esittää asia ukro-natsien aiheuttamana ”onnettomuutena”. Kyllä siinä voikin käydä niin, että lännen julistamat abc-aseiden punaiset linjat eivät ylity.
