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Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Antares
Respected Leader
Perustui stern.de lehdessä (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_(magazine)) 1.5 miljoonan levikki) 23.1.2023 olleeseen Markus Reisnerin haastatteluun, jonka sisältö tiiviisti tässä:
The Russian army had about 3300 tanks at the beginning of the war, it is estimated that 1300 were lost. Of the 10,000 to 11,000 tanks that are still available deep in the country, Russia is able to repair at least 2,000 more. “So here we have 4,000 tanks that are still available. Of course, these 4,000 tanks have to be defeated.
Käännös englanniksi
Alkuperäinen saksankielinen uutinen ja haastattelu
Spain's News
Read Spanish news in English. All the main Spanish news outlets in one place in English. Updated hourly with the latest news from Spain and the Canary Islands.www.google.com
(https://www.stern.de/politik/auslan...olitik&utm_medium=rssfeed&utm_source=standard)
Olen aina toisinaan katsonut hänen youtube-videoita joten niiden perusteella jäänyt positiivinen mielikuva.
Näitä numeroita voi pyöritellä monella tavalla, minäkin olen useaan kertaan pureskellut tämän sodan aikana. Näiden lopputulemana olen kallistunut seuraavalle kannalle:
Aktiivijoukoilla panssarivaunuja ennen sodan alkua noin 2 800 kpl ja jos lasketaan mukaan erilaiset koulutusyksiköt sekä kunnostuksessa olevat vaunut, niin voitaneen olla tuossa 3 300 kpl tienoilla. Moni eri lähde toistelee tuota 3 300 numeroa mutta jos lasketaan pelkästään aktiivijoukkojen käytössä olleet vaunut niin niitä on vähemmän. Tässä numerossa täytyy siis olla mukana useampi sata vaunua jotka ovat "lähellä aktiivijoukkoja" mutta eivät kuitenkaan juuri sillä hetkellä niiden käytössä.
"Varastoissa" olevien vaunujen määrästä on myös monenlaista numeroa. Jaroslaw Wolski kirjoitti että Venäjällä olisi ollut jonkinlaisena ihanteena seuraava: 3/3/3 eli noin 3 000 vaunua aktiivijoukoilla, 3 000 vaunua varastoissa "nopeasti aktivoitavissa" ja 3 000 vaunua "hitaammin aktivoitavissa". Toki ihanne / teoria on eri asia kuin käytäntö ja sodan aikana on kuultu monenlaista huhua varsinkin varastoitujen T-72 varianttien huonosta tilasta.
Viime vuoden elokuussa yksi ukrainalainen tutki varastotukikohtien satelliittikuvia ja julkaisi niiden perusteella arvionsa. Teksti on ukrainaksi joten joutuu kääntämään: LÄHDE
Tarkempi erittely löytyy mm. tästä viestistä taulukon muodossa: LINKKI
Laitan tähän alle yhteenvedon (artikkelin lopussa oli mahdollisesti virhe, ei oltu laskettu ihan jokaista kategoriaa mukaan summaan - tässä on mukana minun korjaus numeroihin):
In total, according to CBRT and BZtRVT, 2,075 tanks are relatively combat-ready (1,038 of them are being preserved under dry air), 1,823 tanks are in storage, and 2,963 tanks are for disposal. A total of 6,861 tanks and 1,330 tank spaces in hangars.
Lainaan samasta artikkelista yhteenvetoa seuranneen tekstiosuuden, mutta muutin siihen nämä samat "virheet" minun taulukon mukaisiksi:
Now a few comments about the general numbers.
1,330 tank places in hangars is a number close to the maximum of the number of tanks the Russian Federation can keep in its warehouses. The real amount of equipment that is there is unknown to us, it can be as much as 70% or 10% of the mentioned number.
2,963 tanks to be scrapped - most of them are tank skeletons, often even without turrets. It is much more difficult to restore such equipment than to build a tank from scratch. Therefore, it is scrap metal.
1823 tanks in storage. These are tanks that can potentially be restored at tank repair plants. But they need to be loaded on a train, transported by rail to the appropriate plant, unloaded, delivered to the appropriate workshop, inspected, then start searching for the necessary parts (some of which are no longer produced or have their own production cycle), etc. That is, the time costs are not small. And do not forget that Google maps does not provide an opportunity to qualitatively assess the state of the equipment. Therefore, it is quite possible that part of the tanks from this amount will be disposed of.
2,075 combat-ready tanks, of which 1,038 were separately allocated for conservation under dry air. We can fully assume that some of the tanks (those that are not under dry air) will have to be sent to tank repair plants or it will take time to bring them to a combat-ready condition at storage bases. But of the 1,038 tanks, the absolute majority will be operational after the deconservation process. But here it is worth understanding that some of these tanks are T-62 type tanks. Which are mobilized and stored for use during large exercises in the Far East (which is exactly why they are stored in this way - so that once a year they can properly undergo training. And that is why we saw tanks of this type in Ukraine. Not because in The Russian Federation ran out of tanks of other types. The T-62 turned out to be the most combat-ready among the others). But these tanks are outdated and have much less combat value compared to the t-72/80/90. And the transfer of a large number of these obsolete tanks to Ukraine will deal a significant informational and image blow to the Russian Federation.
In general, we can say that the enemy still has quite powerful reserves of tanks. Since 2 thousand relatively combat-capable tanks, let including and old types, that's more than double what we had at the beginning of the invasion. Also, don't forget about the tank seats in the hangars. But stories about "tens of thousands of tanks beyond the Urals" turned out to be a propaganda myth. Because it actually turned out that the Russian Federation does not have such a number of tanks, and their quality and combat capability, in most cases, are also in doubt.
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Joten tähän selitykseen pohjautuen voidaan "suomentaa" mitä nämä eri kategoriat tarkoittavat:
- 1 330 kpl varastopaikkoja halleissa. Satelliitti ei näe katon läpi joten ei tietoa mikä määrä vaunuja on näissä. Voi olla 10%, voi olla 70%, voi olla 100%,
- 1 038 vaunua "dry-air conservation" suojattuna. Näiden pitäisi olla nopeasti aktivoitavissa, tosin vaatinee jonkinlaisen "de-conservation" prosessin
- 1 037 vaunua joiden kunnoksi "combat-ready". Nimestä huolimatta arvioi että näiden (tai ainakin osan näistä) aktivointi vaatii käynnin "tank repair plant" pajalla
- 1 823 vaunua "in storage". Näiden kunto arvioitu huonommaksi, mutta nämä voisi "mahdollisesti" kunnostaa "tank repair plant" pajalla
Jos mukaan ei lasketa varastohallien tuntematonta määrää, tästä saadaan summaksi 1 038 + 1 037 + 1 823 = 3 899.
Tuohon voi sitten lisätä haluamansa määrän hallien sisällä olevia vaunuja, artikkelin laskema maksimi on 1 330 joten jos lisää sen, saadaan 3 899 + 1 330 = 5 229
Artikkelissa oli arvioitu romutukseen menevien vaunujen määräksi 2 963 kpl. Teoriassa niin kauan kun näitä ei ole romutettu, ne tarjoavat jonkinlaisen aihion, mutta en laske näitä mukaan kokonaissummaan.
Artikkelissa ei ole tutkittu ihan kaikkia varastotukikohtia mutta väitetysti suurimmat ja tärkeimmät. Siinä ei ole tutkittu "tank repair plant" satelliittikuvia: onko näiden pihoilla jokin määrä vaunuja odottamassa kunnostusta vai tuodaanko vaunut junalla sitä mukaa kun on tarve kunnostaa? Oletan ettei näiden pihalla varastoida huvin vuoksi satoja panssarivaunuja. Yhden tank repair plant pajan tiedetään kunnostaneen seuraavat määrät panssarivaunuja eli "T-54 + T-55 + T-62 + T-72 + T-80" aikavälillä 1985-2015 (HUOM: T-54, T-55 ja T-62 kunnostusta Neuvostoliiton hajoamiseen asti, sen jälkeen kunnostivat myös muita vaunuja kuin panssarivaunuja mutta tässä kuvaajassa vain panssarivaunut. Voidaan sanoa että aikavälillä 2011-2015 kunnostivat käytännössä pelkästään T-72 ja T-80 panssarivaunuja): LÄHDE
Kuten kuvaajasta näkee, tahti vaihteli 105-190 välissä aikavälillä 2011-2015. Tämä data on БТРЗ № 61 eli 61st armored repair plant.
Laskin toisessa ketjussa että heillä voisi olla kymmenen "armored repair plant" pajaa mutta Jaroslaw Wolski puhui tuoreissa ketjuissaan viidestä.
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Seuraavaa ei sovi unohtaa: lainaamani ukrainalainen artikkeli on julkaistu 22.8.2022 eli julkaisun aikana sotaa oli käyty 179 päivää. Artikkelin julkaisusta nykyhetkeen on 158 päivää. Melkein yhtä pitkä matka, todennäköisesti onkin koska artikkelia varten tehty tutkimustyö tapahtui ennen sen julkaisua. Lienee todennäköistä että Venäjä olisi ottanut tietyn määrän vaunuja kunnostukseen artikkelin julkaisun jälkeen ja on mahdollista että osa näistä vaunuista on jo toimitettu Ukrainaan, missä osa niistä on voitu menettää. Koska artikkelin tiedot on koottu julkisesti nähtävistä satelliittikuvista, niin on virheen mahdollisuus riippuen siitä miten tuoreita kuvat ovat. Eri varastotukikohtien kuvat on voitu ottaa isolla aikaerolla toisiinsa nähden: ero voi olla kuukausia tai jopa vuosia.
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Sanoisin että tämän ukrainalaisen artikkelin numerot eivät heitä pahasti itävaltalaisen upseerin arviosta. Jos mitään niin hän on aika varovainen varastoista kunnostettavien määrän osalta: 2 000 / 10 000 tai 11 000. Varastoitujen vaunujen määräksi voi laskea ukrainalaisen artikkelin perusteella 6 861 ja jos arvaa että hallit ovat 100% täynnä vaunuja niin pitää lisätä 1 330 joten kokonaismäärä olisi 8 191 kpl (tosin ukrainalainen arvioi että tästä määrästä 2 963 kpl on menossa romutukseen).
Ukrainalaisen artikkelin mukaan 2 075 vaunua pitäisi olla aktivoitavissa ja 1 823 vaunua vaatinevat suuremman remontin mutta otettavissa käyttöön sen jälkeen.
Toisaalta Ukrainan ilmoituksen mukaan Venäjä olisi menettänyt 3 182 kpl panssarivaunuja sodan aikana LÄHDE
JOS uskotaan tämä numero sekä muut arviot, voidaan laskea alkuperäisestä määrästä jäljellä olevat + aktivoitavissa olevien panssarivaunujen yhteismääräksi 3 300 + 2 075 + 1 823 - 3 182 = 4 016
Tähän pitää sitten lisätä jokin osuus numerosta 1 330.
JOS ajatellaan että ukrainalaisen artikkelin arviossa on ilmaa ja varastovaunuista on varastettu varaosia yms. niin tästä määrästä joutuu vähentämään jonkin verran. Lisäksi pitää muistaa että vaikka tämä määrä olisi teoriassa aktivoitavissa (4 016 kpl + jokin määrä 1 330 kpl) niin satelliittikuvista ei näe ulos varastoitujen vaunujen sisälle. Ulospäin ehjältä näyttävä voi olla tyhjää sisältä. Armored repair plant pajojen teoreettinen kapasiteettikaan ei auta, jos ei yksinkertaisesti ole riittävästi varaosia vaunujen aktivointiin ja uustuotanto ei kykene vastaamaan tarpeeseen.
Toisaalta lienee selvää että jokin määrä näistä aihioista kyetään aktivoimaan. Mikä määrä on aktivoitu artikkelin julkaisun ja tämän päivän välissä? Voisi olettaa että ainakin nuo "dry-air conservation" vaunut eli 1 038 kpl. Ehkä myös osa "combat-ready" vaunuista? Iso kysymysmerkki on se, minkä määrän ja miten nopeasti Venäjä pystyy aktivoimaan näitä. Selvästi kuvien ja videoiden perusteella ainakin osaan vaunuista asennetaan Kontakt-1 / Kontakt-5 elementtejä sekä lämpökamera. Ehkä samalla joudutaan tekemään muutakin remonttia.
Numeroiden perusteella heillä pitäisi riittää aihioita ainakin Ukrainan ilmoittamien vaunumenetysten korvaamiseen. Ehkä enemmän mutta silloin pitää olla melko optimistinen paitsi aihioiden kunnon niin myös varaosien riittävyyden osalta.
Viimeksi muokattu:
weasel
Kapteeni
Belgiasta 92 miljoonaa aseapua lisää. Kalustoa laidasta laitaan. Pahoittelevat kun Leopard 1:set stenattu, eikä ole nyt tankkia mitä lähettää..
G-käännöstä: will include anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, machine guns, grenades and ammunition and many other military equipment, said Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder
www.lalibre.be
G-käännöstä: will include anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, machine guns, grenades and ammunition and many other military equipment, said Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder
Le "plus important" paquet d'aide militaire à l'Ukraine: voici toutes les annonces d'Alexander De Croo
La Belgique débloque une aide militaire de 92 millions d'euros pour Kiev.
Hä. Jos ryssä maalittaisi päiväkodit, niin lapset pidettäisiin kotona. Kriittiseen infraan siellä tähdätään. Sähköttä kun kansan on hankalampi elää.
Etelässä ilmatorjunnan kapasiteetti lienee paljon pääkaupunkia vähäisempi . Tästä syystä ilmeisesti ryssä saanut siellä tuhoa aikaiseksi.
Siihen kuuluu työsuhdeautokin. Tosin maalaamaton.
Varmaan ehkä ollutkin jo. Migreenin vuoksi en voi käydä läpi päivän historiaa. Ei vaikuta it ohjuksilta.
Olisiko koiratappelu?
Olisiko koiratappelu?
Sensei142
Majuri
nyt olis hyvä hetki käydä bätmännin ja anuksen facebookeissa kertomassa seuraajilleen että voivat lähteä sinne unelmiensa kohteeseen...itse en pääse koska molemmat kusipaskat on blokannu mut jostain syystä
fade
Eversti
Trump: I can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours - Discover Politics
"If I were president, the war between Russia and Ukraine would never have happened. But even now, as president, I could negotiate an end to this terrible
discoverpolitics.org
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said (Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council).
Putin Plans New Ukraine Push Despite Losses as He Prepares for Years of War
Russia is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative even as it prepares for a long standoff in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin holds a virtual meeting with Russian security council members on Jan. 20.
Source: Kremlin
By Bloomberg News / January 27, 2023, 5:00 AM UTC
Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years.
The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.
Even Putin can’t deny the weaknesses of the military that he’s spent decades building up after his troops lost more than half their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.
But Putin remains convinced that Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties – which already number in the tens of thousands, more than in any conflict since World War II, according to US and European estimates – will allow it to prevail despite the failings so far. The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and it allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and and European battle tanks.
Putin’s determination presages another deadly escalation in his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to eject his forces, dismissing any cease-fire that leaves Russia occupying its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in a conflict he sees as an existential one with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as soon as this spring, they said, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war.
“Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone.”
US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall. Ukraine’s allies, meanwhile, are stepping up weapons supplies, preparing to deliver armored vehicles and main battle tanks for the first time that could help Ukrainian troops break through Russian lines.
A British Challenger 2 main battle tank, left, and a Polish Leopard 2 tank.
But Russia’s brutal, grinding attacks in places like Bakhmut, an eastern city that has limited strategic value, have worn down Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and sapping Kyiv’s ability to mount offensive operations elsewhere, according to US officials.
After lightning attacks by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall breached its defensive lines, Russia has since stepped up protections, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow any potential advance. Publicly, the Kremlin says there are no plans for more mobilization at present.
Longer term, Putin has approved plans to expand the ranks of the military by nearly 50% over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland — which is in the process of joining NATO - and in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Schools and universities are reinstating military-training courses last conducted widely in the Soviet era as war preparations permeate society.
Still, some elements of realism about the disastrous performance of the military to date have begun to slip into tightly controlled state media.
“So far the results have been appalling because Russia wasn’t at all ready,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close Kremlin ties.
“It’s morphed into a drawn-out war and Russia doesn’t yet have enough manpower or equipment to wage it,” he said. “We must stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and thwart the West’s efforts to defeat us by gaining the military edge.”
Russian forces haven’t demonstrated the ability to do that since the early weeks of the invasion, retaking only one small city in the last six months and at a huge cost in casualties. Ukraine’s troops, by contrast, have consistently surprised allies and observers with their successes in pushing back the invaders.
Ukrainian artillerymen fire towards Russian positions on the front line in Lugansk region, Ukraine.
Putin’s confidence in his military’s ability to grind out a triumph - even at a cost of vast casualties and destruction - reflects a misreading of the West’s commitment to turn back his aggression, some insiders concede. The US and its allies have steadily stepped up weapons supplies to categories once considered off-limits.
Still, US and European military officials fear the conflict could soon settle into a World War I-style artillery fight with largely stagnant front lines, a scenario that could come to favor Russia, with its larger population and military industry.
Diplomatically, Russia has sought to win supporters among non-western countries with appeals for talks on a cease-fire. Even people close to the Kremlin admit those are hopeless at present, given Ukraine’s demand that Russia pull out its troops as a condition for any deal.
The minimum the Kremlin would accept would be a temporary truce that left Russia in control of the territory its forces currently hold in order to win time to rebuild its forces, the people said. Though short of the boundaries of the regions that Putin illegally annexed in September, that would still leave Russia with a large swath of land, linking the areas it occupied before the war. As a result, the idea is a nonstarter with Kyiv and its allies.
“Unless something changes, we’re looking at a war of attrition like World War I, which could go for a long time because both sides believe time is on their side,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council. “Putin is sure either the West or Ukraine will grow tired.”
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said.
While a new wave of sanctions pressure – in particular, the price cap imposed on Russian oil exports – has squeezed the Kremlin’s revenues, it hasn’t so far cut into Putin’s ability to finance the war. Russia still has access to billions in reserves in yuan which aren’t affected by sanctions and can help bridge budget shortfalls for as much as 2-3 years, according to economists.
Among Ukraine’s allies, too, fears are growing that the conflict will last years.
“This year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine and occupied — or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley said Jan. 20 after a meeting of US and allied defense ministers. “But I do think at the end of the day this war, like many wars in the past, will end at some sort of negotiating table.”
Saa nähdä, toivottavasti Trump ei enää pääse Yhdysvaltojen johtoon. Todennäköisesti ainakin yrittäisi luovuttaa Ukrainan Putinille ja pahimmillaan ei nostaisi sormea, vaikka Putin yrittäisi vallata Suomen tai Baltian maat.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Ottaako eteen?
Kyllä.
Täsmälleen samaa mieltä. Ukrainan ja oikeastaan lähes kaikkien kannalta arvaamaton, mahdollisesti hyvin tuhoisa vaihtoehto tuo mölyävä narsisti.--Trump: I can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours - Discover Politics
"If I were president, the war between Russia and Ukraine would never have happened. But even now, as president, I could negotiate an end to this terrible
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said (Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council).
Putin Plans New Ukraine Push Despite Losses as He Prepares for Years of War
Russia is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative even as it prepares for a long standoff in Ukraine
Katso liite: 73282
Vladimir Putin holds a virtual meeting with Russian security council members on Jan. 20.
Source: Kremlin
By Bloomberg News / January 27, 2023, 5:00 AM UTC
Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years.
The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.
Even Putin can’t deny the weaknesses of the military that he’s spent decades building up after his troops lost more than half their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.
But Putin remains convinced that Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties – which already number in the tens of thousands, more than in any conflict since World War II, according to US and European estimates – will allow it to prevail despite the failings so far. The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and it allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and and European battle tanks.
Putin’s determination presages another deadly escalation in his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to eject his forces, dismissing any cease-fire that leaves Russia occupying its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in a conflict he sees as an existential one with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as soon as this spring, they said, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war.
“Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone.”
US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall. Ukraine’s allies, meanwhile, are stepping up weapons supplies, preparing to deliver armored vehicles and main battle tanks for the first time that could help Ukrainian troops break through Russian lines.
Katso liite: 73283
A British Challenger 2 main battle tank, left, and a Polish Leopard 2 tank.
But Russia’s brutal, grinding attacks in places like Bakhmut, an eastern city that has limited strategic value, have worn down Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and sapping Kyiv’s ability to mount offensive operations elsewhere, according to US officials.
After lightning attacks by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall breached its defensive lines, Russia has since stepped up protections, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow any potential advance. Publicly, the Kremlin says there are no plans for more mobilization at present.
Longer term, Putin has approved plans to expand the ranks of the military by nearly 50% over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland — which is in the process of joining NATO - and in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Schools and universities are reinstating military-training courses last conducted widely in the Soviet era as war preparations permeate society.
Still, some elements of realism about the disastrous performance of the military to date have begun to slip into tightly controlled state media.
“So far the results have been appalling because Russia wasn’t at all ready,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close Kremlin ties.
“It’s morphed into a drawn-out war and Russia doesn’t yet have enough manpower or equipment to wage it,” he said. “We must stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and thwart the West’s efforts to defeat us by gaining the military edge.”
Russian forces haven’t demonstrated the ability to do that since the early weeks of the invasion, retaking only one small city in the last six months and at a huge cost in casualties. Ukraine’s troops, by contrast, have consistently surprised allies and observers with their successes in pushing back the invaders.
Katso liite: 73284
Ukrainian artillerymen fire towards Russian positions on the front line in Lugansk region, Ukraine.
Putin’s confidence in his military’s ability to grind out a triumph - even at a cost of vast casualties and destruction - reflects a misreading of the West’s commitment to turn back his aggression, some insiders concede. The US and its allies have steadily stepped up weapons supplies to categories once considered off-limits.
Still, US and European military officials fear the conflict could soon settle into a World War I-style artillery fight with largely stagnant front lines, a scenario that could come to favor Russia, with its larger population and military industry.
Diplomatically, Russia has sought to win supporters among non-western countries with appeals for talks on a cease-fire. Even people close to the Kremlin admit those are hopeless at present, given Ukraine’s demand that Russia pull out its troops as a condition for any deal.
The minimum the Kremlin would accept would be a temporary truce that left Russia in control of the territory its forces currently hold in order to win time to rebuild its forces, the people said. Though short of the boundaries of the regions that Putin illegally annexed in September, that would still leave Russia with a large swath of land, linking the areas it occupied before the war. As a result, the idea is a nonstarter with Kyiv and its allies.
“Unless something changes, we’re looking at a war of attrition like World War I, which could go for a long time because both sides believe time is on their side,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council. “Putin is sure either the West or Ukraine will grow tired.”
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said.
While a new wave of sanctions pressure – in particular, the price cap imposed on Russian oil exports – has squeezed the Kremlin’s revenues, it hasn’t so far cut into Putin’s ability to finance the war. Russia still has access to billions in reserves in yuan which aren’t affected by sanctions and can help bridge budget shortfalls for as much as 2-3 years, according to economists.
Among Ukraine’s allies, too, fears are growing that the conflict will last years.
“This year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine and occupied — or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley said Jan. 20 after a meeting of US and allied defense ministers. “But I do think at the end of the day this war, like many wars in the past, will end at some sort of negotiating table.”
Saa nähdä, toivottavasti Trump ei enää pääse Yhdysvaltojen johtoon. Todennäköisesti ainakin yrittäisi luovuttaa Ukrainan Putinille ja pahimmillaan ei nostaisi sormea, vaikka Putin yrittäisi vallata Suomen tai Baltian maat.
Menasikohan puuttinille samaa mitä tapahtui sille iranilaiselle kenraalille...
Tämä ketju on väärä Trump vääntelyyn. Kommentoidaan tämä kuitenkin. Republikaaneissa paljon pyssyfirmojen osakkeenomistajia. Näille varmaan kelpaa raha jos 24/7 linjastot käyvät kuumina jatkossakin. Muu keskustelu vaikka Trump peppukipuilu ketjuun.
Eikö epäsuora lauo ne miinoitukset, jos niitä on?
Jos Trumpilla tuollaisia neuvottelutaitoja olisi, niin kuka kieltää neuvottelemasta ex. presidentin asemassa? Kuka kieltää matkustamasta sekä Moskovaan että Kiovaan?--Trump: I can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours - Discover Politics
"If I were president, the war between Russia and Ukraine would never have happened. But even now, as president, I could negotiate an end to this terrible
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said (Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council).
Putin Plans New Ukraine Push Despite Losses as He Prepares for Years of War
Russia is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative even as it prepares for a long standoff in Ukraine
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Vladimir Putin holds a virtual meeting with Russian security council members on Jan. 20.
Source: Kremlin
By Bloomberg News / January 27, 2023, 5:00 AM UTC
Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years.
The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.
Even Putin can’t deny the weaknesses of the military that he’s spent decades building up after his troops lost more than half their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.
But Putin remains convinced that Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties – which already number in the tens of thousands, more than in any conflict since World War II, according to US and European estimates – will allow it to prevail despite the failings so far. The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and it allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and and European battle tanks.
Putin’s determination presages another deadly escalation in his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to eject his forces, dismissing any cease-fire that leaves Russia occupying its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in a conflict he sees as an existential one with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as soon as this spring, they said, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war.
“Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone.”
US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall. Ukraine’s allies, meanwhile, are stepping up weapons supplies, preparing to deliver armored vehicles and main battle tanks for the first time that could help Ukrainian troops break through Russian lines.
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A British Challenger 2 main battle tank, left, and a Polish Leopard 2 tank.
But Russia’s brutal, grinding attacks in places like Bakhmut, an eastern city that has limited strategic value, have worn down Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and sapping Kyiv’s ability to mount offensive operations elsewhere, according to US officials.
After lightning attacks by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall breached its defensive lines, Russia has since stepped up protections, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow any potential advance. Publicly, the Kremlin says there are no plans for more mobilization at present.
Longer term, Putin has approved plans to expand the ranks of the military by nearly 50% over the next few years, deploying new forces near Finland — which is in the process of joining NATO - and in the occupied regions of Ukraine. Schools and universities are reinstating military-training courses last conducted widely in the Soviet era as war preparations permeate society.
Still, some elements of realism about the disastrous performance of the military to date have begun to slip into tightly controlled state media.
“So far the results have been appalling because Russia wasn’t at all ready,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close Kremlin ties.
“It’s morphed into a drawn-out war and Russia doesn’t yet have enough manpower or equipment to wage it,” he said. “We must stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and thwart the West’s efforts to defeat us by gaining the military edge.”
Russian forces haven’t demonstrated the ability to do that since the early weeks of the invasion, retaking only one small city in the last six months and at a huge cost in casualties. Ukraine’s troops, by contrast, have consistently surprised allies and observers with their successes in pushing back the invaders.
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Ukrainian artillerymen fire towards Russian positions on the front line in Lugansk region, Ukraine.
Putin’s confidence in his military’s ability to grind out a triumph - even at a cost of vast casualties and destruction - reflects a misreading of the West’s commitment to turn back his aggression, some insiders concede. The US and its allies have steadily stepped up weapons supplies to categories once considered off-limits.
Still, US and European military officials fear the conflict could soon settle into a World War I-style artillery fight with largely stagnant front lines, a scenario that could come to favor Russia, with its larger population and military industry.
Diplomatically, Russia has sought to win supporters among non-western countries with appeals for talks on a cease-fire. Even people close to the Kremlin admit those are hopeless at present, given Ukraine’s demand that Russia pull out its troops as a condition for any deal.
The minimum the Kremlin would accept would be a temporary truce that left Russia in control of the territory its forces currently hold in order to win time to rebuild its forces, the people said. Though short of the boundaries of the regions that Putin illegally annexed in September, that would still leave Russia with a large swath of land, linking the areas it occupied before the war. As a result, the idea is a nonstarter with Kyiv and its allies.
“Unless something changes, we’re looking at a war of attrition like World War I, which could go for a long time because both sides believe time is on their side,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russia International Affairs Council. “Putin is sure either the West or Ukraine will grow tired.”
A re-election defeat in 2024 for US President Joe Biden, who has led the coalition to support Ukraine, might bring “more flexibility” on the issue in Washington, he said.
While a new wave of sanctions pressure – in particular, the price cap imposed on Russian oil exports – has squeezed the Kremlin’s revenues, it hasn’t so far cut into Putin’s ability to finance the war. Russia still has access to billions in reserves in yuan which aren’t affected by sanctions and can help bridge budget shortfalls for as much as 2-3 years, according to economists.
Among Ukraine’s allies, too, fears are growing that the conflict will last years.
“This year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine and occupied — or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley said Jan. 20 after a meeting of US and allied defense ministers. “But I do think at the end of the day this war, like many wars in the past, will end at some sort of negotiating table.”
Saa nähdä, toivottavasti Trump ei enää pääse Yhdysvaltojen johtoon. Todennäköisesti ainakin yrittäisi luovuttaa Ukrainan Putinille ja pahimmillaan ei nostaisi sormea, vaikka Putin yrittäisi vallata Suomen tai Baltian maat.
On sitä muutkin entiset presidentit tehneet kaikenlaista virkauransa jälkeen, ihan vaikka Martti Ahtisaaresta lähtien, joka sai Nobelin rauhanpalkinnonkin 2008...
Paitsi että tosiasiassa Trumpilla ei mitään tuollaisia lahjoja ole vaan sitä pidetään pellenä.
Kai nyt Z-kirjain on muistettu maalata moneenkin kertaan.Siihen kuuluu työsuhdeautokin. Tosin maalaamaton.