Tässä juuri pari päivää sitten oli joku uutinen (johon en löydä lähdettä tähän hätään) Ukrainan ilmavoimilta, että olivat saaneet nyt toisen noista Patriot pattereista käyttöön. Onko sitten neljä luvattu kokonaisuudessaan, mutta kaksi olisi nyt käytössä.
Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Halusit sitten ihan usealla linkkauksella meille kertoa, että venäläiset laittavat ohjuksia ja lennokkeja kerrostaloihin tappaen naisia, lapsia ja vanhuksia. Olen samaa mieltä, kyllä on kertakaikkisen iljettävää kansaa nuo venäläiset. Paljonko mielestäsi näille ohjuksia roiskiville pitäisi antaa Haagissa kakkua?
Spekulointi torjunnan heikkoudesta Umanin kohdalla on aika akateemista, kun Ukrainassa on noita Lahden kokoisia kaupunkeja kartta täysi ja vanjan sodankäynnin logiikka on pommittaa siviiliuhrit maksimoiden. Vertauskuvana Suomi pystyisi varmaan suojaamaan Itä-Suomen suurimpia kaupunkeja, mutta vaikkapa Kiteelle voisi käydä heikosti.
hyvis
Eversti
Mahtaakohan olla ensimmäinen päivä, kun tankeista ei ole raportoituja? Vanja ilmeisesti vetänyt niitä taaemmas vastahyökkäystä varten tai sitten alkavat käydä vähiin.Päivän luvut:
Mukavia numeroita erityisesti tykistön kohdalla
ak.tied
Greatest Leader
Nyt on ollut hiljaisempaa, mutta sodan alussa videoita ryzzän risteilyohjuksista tuli aika paljon. Enimmäkseen nämä videot oli otettu ilmeisesti aika loppupuolella lentoa.
Korkeutta noilla oli järjestäen ehkä ~50m. Eli aika matalalla tulevat maalialueelle ja havaitseminen ei liene ihan helppoa ja torjuntaikkuna voi olla hyvinkin lyhyt. Paha mennä sanomaan missä vaiheessa lentorata on vielä niin korkealla, että torjunta olisi helpompaa.
Siviilikohteita pommittaessa ei kai ole niin väliä, mihin kylään isketään. Ryzzä voi tarkoituksella valita kohteita, joissa tietää tai olettaa olevan harvempi ilmapuolustus.
Eiliseen vai toissapäiväiseen keskusteluun lännen tuesta Ukrainalle sellainen lisä, että Jenkkilän tiedustelu arvioi Venäjän kykenevän rahoittamaan hyökkäyssotaansa vielä n. vuoden:
Mielenkiintoista nähdä mitä käy siinä tilanteessa, kun Venäjän hyökkäyssota muuttuu "hyökkäyssodalla vallattujen alueiden puolustussodaksi", hupenevalla kassalla..
Mielenkiintoista nähdä mitä käy siinä tilanteessa, kun Venäjän hyökkäyssota muuttuu "hyökkäyssodalla vallattujen alueiden puolustussodaksi", hupenevalla kassalla..
Kyllä, ja lujaa saakin. Se myös mielenkiintoista, että mitä on varattu Venäjän puolelle, rintamalinjojen taakse ja syvemmälle. Eiköhän jotain näyttävää ole sinne myös tulossa. Ja onhan siellä paukkunutkin, mutta jotain kunnon ravistelua tarvii Venäjä.
Dachin alueella Antonovin sillan jämien eteläpäässä on jo mannermaisempaa, mutta vielä pitäisi ylittää Konka-joki hieman etelämpänä ennen Oleškiä. Vanja varmasti tuhoaa tien E97 tuplasillan, joka ylittää Konka-joen.
Nick Kane
Eversti
mikähän toi roikale oli joka siittä lens kaarella ? komia kaari oli kuitenkin
Antares
Respected Leader
Ukrainan sotaa sivuten (oletan että twiitin kuva on pelkästään kuvituskuva eikä yksi mainituista): LÄHDE
BREAKING: Danish MoD confirms that it has 26 pictures of the Russian ship SS-750, fitted with a mini-submarine, near the NordStream pipeline 4 days before last autumn's explosions
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Alkuperäinen lähde, tekstin käännös (artikkeli julkaistu 28 April 2023):
BREAKING: Danish MoD confirms that it has 26 pictures of the Russian ship SS-750, fitted with a mini-submarine, near the NordStream pipeline 4 days before last autumn's explosions
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Alkuperäinen lähde, tekstin käännös (artikkeli julkaistu 28 April 2023):
Defense confirms: Russia had special vessel near Nord Stream's detonation point
The Russian SS-750 special craft, which has a mini-submarine on board, was photographed near the place where the Nord Stream pipes were sabotaged, the Defense Command confirmshttps://www.information.dk/indland/...alfartoej-naer-nord-streams-spraengningspunkt
SABOTAGE
Reading time: 4 min.
The Russian special craft SS-750, which was observed and photographed by the Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen on September 22, 2022. This is an older image from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
INLAND
28 April 2023
The Russian special vessel SS-750 was near the Nord Stream pipes four days before the pipes were blown up on September 26 last year. The special vessel is designed to carry out operations under the sea and has a mini submarine of the AS-26 Priz type on board.
The Norwegian Defense Command confirms in a response to a document inspection that 26 photos of the Russian vessel were taken from a Danish patrol boat that was in the area east of Bornholm on 22 September 2022.
"It's incredibly interesting. The SS-750 is a special vessel that is designed precisely for underwater operations,' says the Swedish researcher, Russia expert and intelligence expert Joakim von Braun.
Jacob Kaarsbo, who is a senior analyst at the think tank Europe and previously worked for 15 years in the Defense Intelligence Service, believes that the information "sheds light on what was going on in the area in the days before".
"The SS-750 is the most interesting vessel to confirm, because we know it has the capacity to carry out such an operation," says Jacob Kaarsbo.
Information has previously revealed that the Norwegian Defense Command is in possession of 112 images of Russian vessels in the area. But this is the first time that the defense has confirmed that it is the specific Russian vessel SS-750 with the mini-submarine on board.
At the same time, the Norwegian Defense Command refuses to provide access to the photos of the Russian special vessel, as the photos are "of an intelligence nature" and "are part of the intelligence work".
The German media T-Online and the open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander have previously described that the special vessel SS-750 was one of a total of six Russian naval vessels that may have been in the area in the days leading up to the blasting of the pipelines. They based this, among other things, on information from anonymous sources and satellite images that showed that SS-750 had left the port of Kaliningrad at the same time as, among others, the vessels Aleksandr Frolov and SB-123.
These satellite photos, along with AIS data from a tugboat, indicate that SS-750 sailed from Kaliningrad at 00:22 on 21 September 2022. AIS transmitters are typically used by larger vessels to supplement radars. They send signals about the ship's name, number, direction, draft and speed and can thus be used to map the movement of vessels.
The SS-750 sailed even without the AIS on. However, the tug Alexandr Frolov had its AIS on when departing from the Russian naval port. AIS data from this vessel shows that the convoy of naval vessels headed for Bornholm, but north of Poland the tug's AIS was also switched off. Until now, it has been assumed that the SS-750 and the five other vessels continued to the area where the Nord Stream pipes were blown up a few days later. Now the Defense Command has confirmed that the SS-750 was observed in the area.
"This is clear confirmation. That vessel is part of Russia's readiness for submarines and underwater operations. In theory, that vessel may well have been there for other reasons, but the timing to be in exactly that place at that time is special,' says analyst Oliver Alexander.
Joakim von Braun has worked for both the civilian and military Swedish intelligence services and has written textbooks on the Russian intelligence services and Russian military underwater activities.
He links the new information that the Danish defense has observed the SS-750 in the area east of Bornholm, together with the previous rumors about the six Russian naval vessels:
"This indicates that much of the information that has come to light earlier is correct. The group of six vessels mentioned is a group assembled for exactly this type of operation. It is very likely that these vessels were involved in the sabotage operation,' says Joakim von Braun.
The 26 images of SS-750 were taken by the Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen on September 22, 2022.
As Information has previously described , it was clear from the reaction of several countries' military units that something suspicious happened around the 21st-22nd September 2022 in the area east of Bornholm. Within hours, both the Danish, Swedish and German defense forces sent vessels to the area, which was also patrolled by surveillance aircraft from both Sweden and Poland.
In addition, American vessels were also nearby, just as an American surveillance helicopter was in the air over the Baltic Sea.
The Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen sailed from Rødbyhavn on 21 September in the evening and arrived in the area east of Bornholm shortly after six o'clock in the morning.
The patrol boat sailed back and forth in an area south and east of the detonation points and at one point slowed down to effectively lie still in the area.
It is therefore somewhere on that route that the Russian vessel has been photographed. It is not yet known what the Defence's remaining 86 images of Russian vessels contain.
The defense command has so far not wanted to go into detail about what P524 Nymfen did in the area, but has simply replied in writing:
"P524 Nymfen's movement around 22 September 2022 followed the normal task solution for the unit deployed as part of water surveillance in Danish waters."
However, data shows that it was the first time P524 Nymph was in the area in five years. Jacob Kaarsbo also assesses the sailing pattern of both the Danish patrol boat and the international vessels as highly unusual.
"Apparently, both Denmark and Sweden are patrolling according to a pattern that is far from normal. It is not a place where neither the Swedes nor the Danes usually come out. The normal picture on a completely normal day in September is that something like this doesn't happen,' he says.
Information has previously asked the Defense Command if the P524 Nymfen was sent out to repel the Russian vessel SS-750 equipped with a mini-submarine and up to five other Russian naval vessels that may have been present at the same time.
But the Defense Command will not answer that.
The Nord Stream explosions are currently being investigated by both Danish, Swedish and German authorities. It is not known when these investigations will be completed.
SABOTAGE
Reading time: 4 min.
Defense confirms: Russia had special vessel near Nord Stream's detonation point
The Russian SS-750 special craft, which has a mini-submarine on board, was photographed near the place where the Nord Stream pipes were sabotaged, the Defense Command confirms
The Russian special craft SS-750, which was observed and photographed by the Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen on September 22, 2022. This is an older image from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
INLAND
28 April 2023
The Russian special vessel SS-750 was near the Nord Stream pipes four days before the pipes were blown up on September 26 last year. The special vessel is designed to carry out operations under the sea and has a mini submarine of the AS-26 Priz type on board.
The Norwegian Defense Command confirms in a response to a document inspection that 26 photos of the Russian vessel were taken from a Danish patrol boat that was in the area east of Bornholm on 22 September 2022.
"It's incredibly interesting. The SS-750 is a special vessel that is designed precisely for underwater operations,' says the Swedish researcher, Russia expert and intelligence expert Joakim von Braun.
Jacob Kaarsbo, who is a senior analyst at the think tank Europe and previously worked for 15 years in the Defense Intelligence Service, believes that the information "sheds light on what was going on in the area in the days before".
"The SS-750 is the most interesting vessel to confirm, because we know it has the capacity to carry out such an operation," says Jacob Kaarsbo.
Information has previously revealed that the Norwegian Defense Command is in possession of 112 images of Russian vessels in the area. But this is the first time that the defense has confirmed that it is the specific Russian vessel SS-750 with the mini-submarine on board.
At the same time, the Norwegian Defense Command refuses to provide access to the photos of the Russian special vessel, as the photos are "of an intelligence nature" and "are part of the intelligence work".
Several Russian naval vessels
The German media T-Online and the open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander have previously described that the special vessel SS-750 was one of a total of six Russian naval vessels that may have been in the area in the days leading up to the blasting of the pipelines. They based this, among other things, on information from anonymous sources and satellite images that showed that SS-750 had left the port of Kaliningrad at the same time as, among others, the vessels Aleksandr Frolov and SB-123.
These satellite photos, along with AIS data from a tugboat, indicate that SS-750 sailed from Kaliningrad at 00:22 on 21 September 2022. AIS transmitters are typically used by larger vessels to supplement radars. They send signals about the ship's name, number, direction, draft and speed and can thus be used to map the movement of vessels.
The SS-750 sailed even without the AIS on. However, the tug Alexandr Frolov had its AIS on when departing from the Russian naval port. AIS data from this vessel shows that the convoy of naval vessels headed for Bornholm, but north of Poland the tug's AIS was also switched off. Until now, it has been assumed that the SS-750 and the five other vessels continued to the area where the Nord Stream pipes were blown up a few days later. Now the Defense Command has confirmed that the SS-750 was observed in the area.
"This is clear confirmation. That vessel is part of Russia's readiness for submarines and underwater operations. In theory, that vessel may well have been there for other reasons, but the timing to be in exactly that place at that time is special,' says analyst Oliver Alexander.
Joakim von Braun has worked for both the civilian and military Swedish intelligence services and has written textbooks on the Russian intelligence services and Russian military underwater activities.
He links the new information that the Danish defense has observed the SS-750 in the area east of Bornholm, together with the previous rumors about the six Russian naval vessels:
"This indicates that much of the information that has come to light earlier is correct. The group of six vessels mentioned is a group assembled for exactly this type of operation. It is very likely that these vessels were involved in the sabotage operation,' says Joakim von Braun.
Several countries sent vessels
The 26 images of SS-750 were taken by the Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen on September 22, 2022.
As Information has previously described , it was clear from the reaction of several countries' military units that something suspicious happened around the 21st-22nd September 2022 in the area east of Bornholm. Within hours, both the Danish, Swedish and German defense forces sent vessels to the area, which was also patrolled by surveillance aircraft from both Sweden and Poland.
In addition, American vessels were also nearby, just as an American surveillance helicopter was in the air over the Baltic Sea.
The Danish patrol vessel P524 Nymfen sailed from Rødbyhavn on 21 September in the evening and arrived in the area east of Bornholm shortly after six o'clock in the morning.
The patrol boat sailed back and forth in an area south and east of the detonation points and at one point slowed down to effectively lie still in the area.
It is therefore somewhere on that route that the Russian vessel has been photographed. It is not yet known what the Defence's remaining 86 images of Russian vessels contain.
The defense command has so far not wanted to go into detail about what P524 Nymfen did in the area, but has simply replied in writing:
"P524 Nymfen's movement around 22 September 2022 followed the normal task solution for the unit deployed as part of water surveillance in Danish waters."
However, data shows that it was the first time P524 Nymph was in the area in five years. Jacob Kaarsbo also assesses the sailing pattern of both the Danish patrol boat and the international vessels as highly unusual.
"Apparently, both Denmark and Sweden are patrolling according to a pattern that is far from normal. It is not a place where neither the Swedes nor the Danes usually come out. The normal picture on a completely normal day in September is that something like this doesn't happen,' he says.
Information has previously asked the Defense Command if the P524 Nymfen was sent out to repel the Russian vessel SS-750 equipped with a mini-submarine and up to five other Russian naval vessels that may have been present at the same time.
But the Defense Command will not answer that.
The Nord Stream explosions are currently being investigated by both Danish, Swedish and German authorities. It is not known when these investigations will be completed.
Viimeksi muokattu:
ck, they're coming"
Riippuu pitkälti siitä miten paljon joukkoja tuohon olisi varattavissa ja miten isoa mottia haetaan. Minulla tuli tänään mieleen ajatus, että iso vastahyökkäys voisi tällä seudulla alkaa Bakhmutin puolustuksen "romahduksella," eli tarkoituksella nopealla vetäytymisellä taaksepäin. Ideana olisi vanhan neuvostodoktriinin hyväksikäyttö, eli tuollaisen "läpimurron" kohdalla venäläisten uskottaisiin työntävän suuren määrän joukkoja eteenpäin murtokohtaan. Nämä joukot tulisivat luultavasti paikallisesta reservistä, jolloin molemmilta sivuilta liikkeelle lähtevä hyökkäys voisi tehokkaasti saartaa nämä joukot. Siten olisi mahdollista päästä nopeasti etenemään viholliseen syvyyteen, kun puolustavat reservit sieltä ovat motissa Bakhmutin seudulla.
Bakhmutin takaa menee valtatie M-03 suoraan kohti Debaltseven liikennesolmua. Se olisi yksi mahdollinen strateginen tavoite vastahyökkäykselle. Debaltseven haltuunottaminen erottaisi venäjältä eri suunnista saapuvat rautatiet toisistaan ja katkaisisi alueen suurimmat valtatiet. Se hankaloittaisi venäläisten logistiikkaa ja etenkin kykyä siirtää joukkoja sivustalta toiselle merkittävästi. Sen jälkeen Ukraina pystyisi vaihtamaan painopistettä paljon nopeammin kuin venäläiset, mikä edesauttaisi alueiden vapauttamista kovasti.
Mutta tuo on myös venäjän tiheimmin miehittämää ja pisimpään linnoittamaa aluetta. Hyökkäys ei varmasti olisi helppo, se pitäisi suunnitella huolella ja valmistella perusteellisesti. Operaation aikanakin tykistöä ja muuta raskasta tulitukea tarvittaisiin massiivisesti. En todellakaan usko, että Ukraina lähtisi tuollaiseen operaatioon jos nuo kaikki eivät ole kunnossa ja vihreää valoa anneta myös Pentagonin analyysiosastojen suunnasta.