Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Antares
Respected Leader
Väitteitä yhden Ukrainan varastotukikohdan vaunumääristä per tyyppi (numerot väitetysti maaliskuulta 2014 - eli vajaa kymmenen vuotta vanhoja). En muista, onko tällainen analyysi tullut aikaisemmin vastaan enkä tiedä, ovatko numerot luotettavia vai eivät (samoin väitteet aktivoinneista ja kunnostamisesta). Otetaan joka tapauksessa talteen, koska varastotukikohdat ovat olleet isossa roolissa tämän sodan aikana:
As of March 2014, #Ukrainian Zhytomyr Armour Plant had the following equipment in storage:
* BMP-1 - 177 (units)
* BMP-2 - 119
* BMP-1KSh - 2
* BMP-1K - 35
* BREM-2 - 23
* BREM Ch - 1
* BRDM-2 - 11
* ZSU-23-4 - 10
* BTR, BMP, and BRDM-based specialized equipment - 100+
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, most of the equipment was restored to working order and sent to units, as of 2018, at least 200 units of equipment were removed from storage.
Information about equipment type and numbers are from picture and satellite data.
As of March 2014, #Ukrainian Zhytomyr Armour Plant had the following equipment in storage:
* BMP-1 - 177 (units)
* BMP-2 - 119
* BMP-1KSh - 2
* BMP-1K - 35
* BREM-2 - 23
* BREM Ch - 1
* BRDM-2 - 11
* ZSU-23-4 - 10
* BTR, BMP, and BRDM-based specialized equipment - 100+
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, most of the equipment was restored to working order and sent to units, as of 2018, at least 200 units of equipment were removed from storage.
Information about equipment type and numbers are from picture and satellite data.
Aika rapsakkaa on tuotteet olleet tuollakin..
Täysi radiohiljaisuus tuntuu olevan eilisten Robotyne huhujen jäljiltä.
Tuosta ei sinänsä voi päätellä mitään. Ukrainan videot tulevat vasta päivien päästä jos tulevat. Ryssän videot tulevat kun on jotain "edullista" näyttää. "Edullinen" on jotain Ukrainan moukarointia, josta sitten OSINT-miehet pystyvät paikallistamaan minne ehkä rintama on liikkunut. Nämä paikallistamiset onnistuvat hyvin näissä maastoissa, joissa peltolohkojen muodot ja suhteelliset värierot muodostavat tunnistettavia ruutuja.
Myroshnykov kirjoittaa vähän epämääräisesti seuraavaa.
The area of our control that touches the "pyramid line" is expanding every day.
The invaders cannot stop our advance. They draw new and new reserves from other areas, weakening them. Which we will also use sooner or later.
But it will be even more difficult, and it is already will be felt soon. The battles will be even tougher.
Now, on the heights near Robotyny and near Verbov, many, many things are being decided.
The breakthrough of this "line of pyramids" even 2-3 km wide will bring serious problems to the occupiers.
It was not for nothing that they trained an engineer for the circular defense of Tokmak, not for nothing.
This can become a reality in due time.
EDIT: linkki lisätty
Tuosta ei sinänsä voi päätellä mitään. Ukrainan videot tulevat vasta päivien päästä jos tulevat. Ryssän videot tulevat kun on jotain "edullista" näyttää. "Edullinen" on jotain Ukrainan moukarointia, josta sitten OSINT-miehet pystyvät paikallistamaan minne ehkä rintama on liikkunut. Nämä paikallistamiset onnistuvat hyvin näissä maastoissa, joissa peltolohkojen muodot ja suhteelliset värierot muodostavat tunnistettavia ruutuja.
Myroshnykov kirjoittaa vähän epämääräisesti seuraavaa.
The area of our control that touches the "pyramid line" is expanding every day.
The invaders cannot stop our advance. They draw new and new reserves from other areas, weakening them. Which we will also use sooner or later.
But it will be even more difficult, and it is already will be felt soon. The battles will be even tougher.
Now, on the heights near Robotyny and near Verbov, many, many things are being decided.
The breakthrough of this "line of pyramids" even 2-3 km wide will bring serious problems to the occupiers.
It was not for nothing that they trained an engineer for the circular defense of Tokmak, not for nothing.
This can become a reality in due time.
EDIT: linkki lisätty
Lentävältä Kanalta uusia karttoja, joissa hänen valistunut näkemyksensä Robotynen suunnan rintamasta:
Mielenkiintoinen tuo hänen tulkintansa Ukrainan hyökkäyksen suunnasta etelään, tankkiesteenviertä..
Jännityksellä seuraamme lähipäivien ja -viikkojen aikana, miten käy, jos Ukraina onnistuu tuolla Robotynen kaakkoispuolella puhkaisemaan tuon Venäjän ensimmäisen puolustuslinjan..
SvengaBarbaari
Kersantti
Itseasiassa nyt kun noita lukemia yhden tukikohdan suhteen katsoo niin ihmetyttää missä Shilkat ovat puolin ja toisin? Kait ne esim. UA puolella olisivat käypää kamaa esim. Shahedien torjunnassa jos Geparditkin toimivat. Samoin BTR-kalustosta näkyvät videot ovat tosiaan jääneet lähestulkoon vuotta taaksepäin. Onko ryssällä niiden renkaat jo niin kaljuja ettei niillä tee mitään.
Onhan noita Shilkoja käytössä molemilla osapuolilla, Ukrainallakin jopa satoja (mitä epäilen itse suuresti, kyseessä lienee kokonaismäärä minkä Ukraina peri NL:n hajotessa).
Odessalainen joka ilmottautui vapaaehtoiseksi sotilaaksi ja menetti jalan.
"I want to show you that being beautiful and happy is possible, regardless of anything!"Ruslana Danilkina. Unbreakable.At the age of 18, she left her native Odesa and volunteered to go to war. She became a communications operator. On February 10, 2023, a russian cluster bomb hit her car in the Kherson region. Ruslana lost her leg.She underwent several difficult surgeries. Prosthetics. Rehabilitation.She lives a full life. She travels. She helps other wounded people return to normal life."I want our country to have no pity for people whom war has left its mark on. People who have been injured remain the same people they were. Only each of them has their own story of struggle, a story of fear and victory. I want every person who has sacrificed themselves to not be afraid to return into society and interact with people."
"I want to show you that being beautiful and happy is possible, regardless of anything!"Ruslana Danilkina. Unbreakable.At the age of 18, she left her native Odesa and volunteered to go to war. She became a communications operator. On February 10, 2023, a russian cluster bomb hit her car in the Kherson region. Ruslana lost her leg.She underwent several difficult surgeries. Prosthetics. Rehabilitation.She lives a full life. She travels. She helps other wounded people return to normal life."I want our country to have no pity for people whom war has left its mark on. People who have been injured remain the same people they were. Only each of them has their own story of struggle, a story of fear and victory. I want every person who has sacrificed themselves to not be afraid to return into society and interact with people."
Tämän päiväinen RFU selvittää paljon asioita Robotynen suhteen, kun liittää tähän muuta viime päivien infoa (Kastehelmi & co. kartat, Davydovin kommentit eilen/toissapäivänä, yms). Ilmeisesti Ukraina jo kertaalleen hyökkäsi Novoprokopivkaan koillisen suunnalta. Raportin mukaan Ukraina on pystynyt lämpökameroiden avulla löytämään hyviä reittejä miinakenttien läpi.
Antares
Respected Leader
Lyhyt ketju Verboven suunnalta tehdyistä havainnoista sekä lainataan paria ryssän milbloggeria:
Ukrainian forces may be attempting to breach the Russian tank ditch between Verbove and Robotyne.
Quick Thread.
NASA's VIIRS sensor picked up heat anomalies next to a segment of the tank ditch on August 27 near 35.9136801°E 47.4222758°N.
(Imagery here shows August 25 vs 28)
Imagery collected on August 28 shows extensive brush burns marks near the tank ditch and even some burns between the ditch and the dragon's teeth (circled in red).
An alternative hypothesis is that these observed burns could be from Ukrainian indirect fire against Russian forces in the area, but I think that's unlikely given Russian forces are deployed in the hedgerows and fighting positions largely separate of the tank ditches.
Russian sources also report a Ukrainian advance.
Wargonzo reported on AUG 27 that that the current Ukrainian frontline is 4km from Verbove following a Ukrainian advance.
The observed burns are consistent with this Russian report & are almost exactly 4km west of Verbove.
Russian milblogger Rybar's latest map from August 28 paints a similar story, showing Ukrainian forces closer to Verbove.
The map notably shows Ukrainian forces right up against the Russian tank ditch, in the same area where the observed burn marks are.
https://t.me/rybar/51240
Ukrainian forces may be attempting to breach the Russian tank ditch between Verbove and Robotyne.
Quick Thread.
NASA's VIIRS sensor picked up heat anomalies next to a segment of the tank ditch on August 27 near 35.9136801°E 47.4222758°N.
(Imagery here shows August 25 vs 28)
Imagery collected on August 28 shows extensive brush burns marks near the tank ditch and even some burns between the ditch and the dragon's teeth (circled in red).
An alternative hypothesis is that these observed burns could be from Ukrainian indirect fire against Russian forces in the area, but I think that's unlikely given Russian forces are deployed in the hedgerows and fighting positions largely separate of the tank ditches.
Russian sources also report a Ukrainian advance.
Wargonzo reported on AUG 27 that that the current Ukrainian frontline is 4km from Verbove following a Ukrainian advance.
The observed burns are consistent with this Russian report & are almost exactly 4km west of Verbove.
Russian milblogger Rybar's latest map from August 28 paints a similar story, showing Ukrainian forces closer to Verbove.
The map notably shows Ukrainian forces right up against the Russian tank ditch, in the same area where the observed burn marks are.
https://t.me/rybar/51240
@Antares hyvä ketju ylempänä, täydennetään Ian Matveevin telegramin yhteenvedosta (en löytänyt Twitteristä.. siis X:stä).
Ei puhu vielä läpimurrosta, koska sellaisesta ei vielä ole selviä merkkejä. Sen sijaan on hyviä mahdollisuuksia. Lisäksi korostaa rintaman leventämisen tärkeyttä joukkojen huollon kannalta. Viittaa tällä siihen että Ukrainan etenemänä on hiukan käytävämäinen (kuten onkin) ja pitkä välimatka oleellisimpien huoltopaikkojen ja etulinjan välillä. Ukraina nyt mitä ilmeisemmin onkin tehnyt Kopaniin ja Verboveen päin rintaman levennystä.
https://t.me/arrowsmap/1735
"Breakthrough" at Rabotino - new opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukrainian troops have reached the Rabotino-Verbove line and are advancing towards Novoprokopovka. Many began to write that here it is - a breakthrough of the front. I will say right away - no, there has not been any breakthrough yet. According to the available photo and video materials, Russian troops maintain their positions during the retreat. In addition, they can occupy the first line of fortifications of the so-called Surovikin Line. There are also no high rates of advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the south. So it's not a breakthrough.
However, in this area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have new opportunities that can just lead to a breakthrough. Let's figure it out.
We are interested in the section between Novoprokopovka and Verbov. If you look at the map of famous Russian fortifications, then the current line of contact lies exactly where the first solid line of Russian fortifications is located. Analyst Emil Kastehelmi found out that in this place the fortifications were not completed and look much weaker than directly on the flanks of the site - in Novoprokopovka and Verbovoe.
This means that it is here that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can try to break through the front and not storm Novoprokopovka from the north, but enter the defenders in the rear - from the south. Perhaps even wider - to Sladkaya Balka. And then a direct road to Tokmak opens. And in general, having carried out such a movement, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can throw large forces into the rear of the Russian defense line. Which will lead to great difficulties with the supply and transfer of parts, and then to collapse. (continued below)
Mines remain the most important factor. The basic assumption is that an army never mines its rear too tightly. Because this increases the risk of blowing up on our own mines, complicates logistics, and in general it is difficult to spend mines on the rear fields, when you can put them right now in the most important - forward positions.
If this is so, then in the Rabotino area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already overcome the densest minefields and it will be easier further. And let me remind you that it was the mines that became the main obstacle for the attackers and the factor on which the successful Russian defense was based. But the thesis of less dense minefields still needs to be confirmed.
There is another circumstance that the Armed Forces of Ukraine must take into account. Now the zone of advancement deep into the occupied territory is more and more like a corridor. This means that the attackers need to go further and further just to get to the battle zone. In addition, there are opportunities for artillery crossfire. Therefore, it is in the interests of the Ukrainian troops to expand this ledge as quickly as possible after the breakthrough, simultaneously with its deepening to the south.
I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine see and clearly assess their capabilities there and will not waste time. This means that in the next 1-2 weeks we will understand for sure whether there will be attempts at a full-fledged breakthrough.
Ei puhu vielä läpimurrosta, koska sellaisesta ei vielä ole selviä merkkejä. Sen sijaan on hyviä mahdollisuuksia. Lisäksi korostaa rintaman leventämisen tärkeyttä joukkojen huollon kannalta. Viittaa tällä siihen että Ukrainan etenemänä on hiukan käytävämäinen (kuten onkin) ja pitkä välimatka oleellisimpien huoltopaikkojen ja etulinjan välillä. Ukraina nyt mitä ilmeisemmin onkin tehnyt Kopaniin ja Verboveen päin rintaman levennystä.
https://t.me/arrowsmap/1735
"Breakthrough" at Rabotino - new opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukrainian troops have reached the Rabotino-Verbove line and are advancing towards Novoprokopovka. Many began to write that here it is - a breakthrough of the front. I will say right away - no, there has not been any breakthrough yet. According to the available photo and video materials, Russian troops maintain their positions during the retreat. In addition, they can occupy the first line of fortifications of the so-called Surovikin Line. There are also no high rates of advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the south. So it's not a breakthrough.
However, in this area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have new opportunities that can just lead to a breakthrough. Let's figure it out.
We are interested in the section between Novoprokopovka and Verbov. If you look at the map of famous Russian fortifications, then the current line of contact lies exactly where the first solid line of Russian fortifications is located. Analyst Emil Kastehelmi found out that in this place the fortifications were not completed and look much weaker than directly on the flanks of the site - in Novoprokopovka and Verbovoe.
This means that it is here that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can try to break through the front and not storm Novoprokopovka from the north, but enter the defenders in the rear - from the south. Perhaps even wider - to Sladkaya Balka. And then a direct road to Tokmak opens. And in general, having carried out such a movement, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can throw large forces into the rear of the Russian defense line. Which will lead to great difficulties with the supply and transfer of parts, and then to collapse. (continued below)
Mines remain the most important factor. The basic assumption is that an army never mines its rear too tightly. Because this increases the risk of blowing up on our own mines, complicates logistics, and in general it is difficult to spend mines on the rear fields, when you can put them right now in the most important - forward positions.
If this is so, then in the Rabotino area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already overcome the densest minefields and it will be easier further. And let me remind you that it was the mines that became the main obstacle for the attackers and the factor on which the successful Russian defense was based. But the thesis of less dense minefields still needs to be confirmed.
There is another circumstance that the Armed Forces of Ukraine must take into account. Now the zone of advancement deep into the occupied territory is more and more like a corridor. This means that the attackers need to go further and further just to get to the battle zone. In addition, there are opportunities for artillery crossfire. Therefore, it is in the interests of the Ukrainian troops to expand this ledge as quickly as possible after the breakthrough, simultaneously with its deepening to the south.
I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine see and clearly assess their capabilities there and will not waste time. This means that in the next 1-2 weeks we will understand for sure whether there will be attempts at a full-fledged breakthrough.
Antares
Respected Leader
MUOKKAUS: tämä on siis sama video jonka käyttäjä Heinrich jakoi tuossa ylempänä - tosin se on eri twitter-tilin jakamana joka kommentoi videota eri tavalla.
Tuitero kirjoittaa että tässä käveltäisiin Surovikin linjaa pitkin, tosin kommenteissa kysellään onko tämä video geopaikannetta / onko hän varma sijainnista:
Walk along the Surovikin Line.
-
MUOKKAUS: videon lähde, sivulla kirjoitetaan näin videon alla (ei mainita suoraan Surovikin linjaa):
Чергові взяті позиції. Трофеї, трупи, сморід та прикольно
Another positions taken. Trophies, corpses, stench and fun
https://t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/509
Tuitero kirjoittaa että tässä käveltäisiin Surovikin linjaa pitkin, tosin kommenteissa kysellään onko tämä video geopaikannetta / onko hän varma sijainnista:
Walk along the Surovikin Line.
-
MUOKKAUS: videon lähde, sivulla kirjoitetaan näin videon alla (ei mainita suoraan Surovikin linjaa):
Чергові взяті позиції. Трофеї, трупи, сморід та прикольно
Another positions taken. Trophies, corpses, stench and fun
https://t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/509
Viimeksi muokattu:
Tuon videon on postannut Khorne Group, joka on toiminnassa Robotynen suunnalla.