Ukrainan konflikti/sota
ak.tied
Greatest Leader
Tästä heitin epäilyn eilen. Systemaattista on ollut kehitys tuota kohti. Krimin ilmapuolustus on ollut pitkään raskaan tulen alla, nyt laumautettiin käytössä oleva varajärjestelmä. Sinänsä sillan tuhoaminen on toissijainen, mutta looginen jatkumo. Valtaosa huollosta on kulkenut jo lautoilla.
Ydinaseiden käyttökelpoisuus on heikko. Niillä ei yksistään torjuta ulkoisia uhkia, vaan rinnalle tarvitaan myös runsaasti konventionaalista voimaa.
Myös jos sisäpoliittista puolta miettii, niin Putinin valta perustuu toisaalta avokätiseen lahjontaan korruptiorahojen kautta ja toisaalta pelon tuottamiseen väkivaltakoneiston avulla. Jos Ukrainan sodan päättyessä talous on enemmän tai vähemmän romuna eikä rahaa pystytä syöttämään entiseen malliin oligarkeille ja ylemmille virkamiehille, ja toisaalta väkivaltakoneisto koostuu lähinnä vain pamputtajista ja ydinaseista, niin kyllähän tuollainen tilanne voimakkaasti ennustaa vallankaappausta tai sisällissotaa.
Ohjus-tiedustelija
Ylipäällikkö
Toivottavasti logistiikka tuolla on sellainen että ratkaisuun päästäisiin tätä kautta. Puolustuslinjojen (miinoitteiden) murtaminen ilman että puolustavat joukot on ajettu riittävän tukalaan tilanteeseen huollollisesti saattaa olla liian kyinen kaski Ukrainalle kangettavaksi
Pohjoisessa Kiovan porteilta lähdettiin tämän seurauksena, Khersonista kaiketi myös... Puhtaasti läpimurron seurauksena ei ole tainnut ryssä vielä kertaakaan vähääkään isommassa mittakaavassa perääntyä. Tämä se strategia taitaa olla ja hyvä niin koska säästää hyökkääjän verta jos vaan onnistuu
Harvapartio
Eversti
Omaan silmään ohjus on mennyt sukkana läpi kannesta ja räjähtänyt sisäpuolella. Mutta pohjassa on reikä kallistuksesta päätellen, se on varma. Ties vaikka olisi ollut suutari ja mennyt pohjastakin suoraan läpi.En tiedä, mutta on se ainakin merkittävästi kallistuneena laiturissa eli siis hörpännyt reippaasti merivettä sisuksiinsa. Ei taida aivan heti olla junia siirtelemässä.
Vuoden 2024 lehdistön kuvakilpailuun vahva ehdokas, ajan henki niin selvästi näkyvissä, kaikki yhteiskunnat haluavat kiihkeästi eroon Venäjän fossiilienergiasta.
Ja mikäli totta, että Ukraina iski Neptunella niin se tarkoittaa, että ryssä ei kykene torjumaan sitäkään. Melkoinen harmi.
Edit: lisää kuvia ja videoita samalta paikalta.
x.com
twitter.com
Kilroy
Kersantti
Gazpromin arvolle ja tulokselle tulee lopullinen isku kun tämän vuoden lopussa putkikaasun myynti Eurooppaan loppuu Ukrainan sulkiessa putken. Tilanne on kyllä ollut aika erikoinen.. kaksi maata ovat sodassa toisiaan vastaan mutta toinen pitää kiinni sopimuksista mikä auttaa vihollista rahoittamaan sotimista. En tiedä onko koskaan ollut vastaavaa tilannetta?
VanhaPate
Respected Leader
Operational information as of 10:30 a.m. 31/05/2024 regarding the Russian invasion. (1/2)
Eight hundred and twenty-eighth day of large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 127 combat clashes took place.
In total, the Russian occupiers launched three missile strikes against the positions of our troops and populated areas using 22 missiles, 64 airstrikes using 97 anti-aircraft missiles, and carried out more than three thousand attacks from various types of weapons, including 123 using rocket salvo systems.
Over the past day, the Air Force and missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine hit 21 personnel concentration areas, one anti-aircraft vehicle and two enemy artillery systems.
And since the beginning of this day, our missile forces have successfully struck a ferry crossing and an oil terminal in the Krasnodar Territory.
Last day, the total losses of the Russian invaders amounted to about 1,390 people. Also, the enemy lost 18 tanks, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 39 artillery systems, 55 BpLA operational-tactical level, seven missiles, 56 vehicles and 11 units of special equipment.
Since the beginning of this day, 26 combat clashes have already taken place. The Russian invaders carried out one missile attack using six missiles, three air strikes using four anti-aircraft missiles, attacked 24 times with kamikaze drones, shelled the positions of our troops and populated areas more than 450 times, including four with the use of MLRS.
On the night of May 31, 2024, the enemy attacked Kharkiv with five S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Belgorod Region (RF), Kyiv with an Iskander-K cruise missile from the Kursk Region (RF), and also launched four strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type from the Yeyska region (Russian Federation).
As a result of combat work by anti-aircraft missile units and calculations of mobile fire groups, four "shaheda" were destroyed within the boundaries of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as an "Iskander-K" cruise missile in Kyiv region.
Since the beginning of the day, the aggressor has not carried out any active actions in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian units continue to strengthen positions and defensive lines.
During yesterday's day, the enemy lost 152 occupiers in this direction. In addition, our soldiers destroyed two tanks, two artillery systems, 10 unmanned aerial vehicles and the same number of vehicles. One tank, an armored combat vehicle, an artillery system and five vehicles were damaged.
Since the beginning of the day, one enemy attack near Novoyehorivka has been repulsed in the Kupyansk direction. Fighting continues in Petropavlivka, Berestovo and Makiivka districts. The situation is under control.
Over the past day, in the Kupyansk direction, according to updated data, the total losses of the enemy amounted to 82 people. One tank, an artillery system, two cars and the Serp-VS5 electronic warfare station were destroyed. An armored combat vehicle and five enemy artillery systems were damaged.
In the Lyman direction, Russian invaders are trying to attack near Dibrova. The situation is tense. Defense forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation.
Fighting continues in the Berestovo region on the Siverskyi direction. Three times the enemy tried to break through in the direction of Vyimka. There was no success. Loss of positions is not allowed.
In the Kramatorsk direction, since the beginning of the day, two enemy attempts to approach Chasovoy Yar have been repulsed. Units of the Defense Forces are successfully restraining the onslaught, strengthening their positions in certain areas.
In the Pokrovsky direction, Ukrainian defenders are taking measures to prevent the enemy from advancing. At this time, the enemy made four attempts to dislodge our units from the occupied positions. Fighting continues near the settlements of Kalinove, Novoselivka Persha and Nevelske. The attack in the Novolexandrivka area was repulsed.
t.me
In the Kurakhiv direction, a battle continues near Kostyantynivka. The situation remains under the control of the Defense Forces.
The enemy paid a high price for yesterday's activity in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. According to detailed information, the Russian aggressor lost a total of 534 people killed and wounded in these two directions alone. Four tanks of the occupiers, nine armored combat vehicles and six cars were destroyed. In addition, three more tanks, four armored combat vehicles and two artillery systems were damaged.
In the Orihiv direction, 3 enemy assaults were repulsed in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Robotyny, and Novoandriivka. Loss of positions is not allowed.
In the rest of the directions, the situation did not undergo significant changes.
The Defense Forces of Ukraine are taking all necessary measures to deter the enemy's offensive, exhaust its combat potential, and stabilize the situation.
Join the Defense Forces!
Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!
t.me
Eight hundred and twenty-eighth day of large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 127 combat clashes took place.
In total, the Russian occupiers launched three missile strikes against the positions of our troops and populated areas using 22 missiles, 64 airstrikes using 97 anti-aircraft missiles, and carried out more than three thousand attacks from various types of weapons, including 123 using rocket salvo systems.
Over the past day, the Air Force and missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine hit 21 personnel concentration areas, one anti-aircraft vehicle and two enemy artillery systems.
And since the beginning of this day, our missile forces have successfully struck a ferry crossing and an oil terminal in the Krasnodar Territory.
Last day, the total losses of the Russian invaders amounted to about 1,390 people. Also, the enemy lost 18 tanks, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 39 artillery systems, 55 BpLA operational-tactical level, seven missiles, 56 vehicles and 11 units of special equipment.
Since the beginning of this day, 26 combat clashes have already taken place. The Russian invaders carried out one missile attack using six missiles, three air strikes using four anti-aircraft missiles, attacked 24 times with kamikaze drones, shelled the positions of our troops and populated areas more than 450 times, including four with the use of MLRS.
On the night of May 31, 2024, the enemy attacked Kharkiv with five S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Belgorod Region (RF), Kyiv with an Iskander-K cruise missile from the Kursk Region (RF), and also launched four strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type from the Yeyska region (Russian Federation).
As a result of combat work by anti-aircraft missile units and calculations of mobile fire groups, four "shaheda" were destroyed within the boundaries of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as an "Iskander-K" cruise missile in Kyiv region.
Since the beginning of the day, the aggressor has not carried out any active actions in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian units continue to strengthen positions and defensive lines.
During yesterday's day, the enemy lost 152 occupiers in this direction. In addition, our soldiers destroyed two tanks, two artillery systems, 10 unmanned aerial vehicles and the same number of vehicles. One tank, an armored combat vehicle, an artillery system and five vehicles were damaged.
Since the beginning of the day, one enemy attack near Novoyehorivka has been repulsed in the Kupyansk direction. Fighting continues in Petropavlivka, Berestovo and Makiivka districts. The situation is under control.
Over the past day, in the Kupyansk direction, according to updated data, the total losses of the enemy amounted to 82 people. One tank, an artillery system, two cars and the Serp-VS5 electronic warfare station were destroyed. An armored combat vehicle and five enemy artillery systems were damaged.
In the Lyman direction, Russian invaders are trying to attack near Dibrova. The situation is tense. Defense forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation.
Fighting continues in the Berestovo region on the Siverskyi direction. Three times the enemy tried to break through in the direction of Vyimka. There was no success. Loss of positions is not allowed.
In the Kramatorsk direction, since the beginning of the day, two enemy attempts to approach Chasovoy Yar have been repulsed. Units of the Defense Forces are successfully restraining the onslaught, strengthening their positions in certain areas.
In the Pokrovsky direction, Ukrainian defenders are taking measures to prevent the enemy from advancing. At this time, the enemy made four attempts to dislodge our units from the occupied positions. Fighting continues near the settlements of Kalinove, Novoselivka Persha and Nevelske. The attack in the Novolexandrivka area was repulsed.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ
Оперативна інформація станом на 10.30 31.05.2024 щодо російського вторгнення. (1/2) Вісімсот двадцять восьма доба широкомасштабної збройної агресії російської федерації проти України. Протягом минулої доби відбулося 127 бойових зіткнень. Загалом російські окупанти завдали по позиціях наших...
t.me
In the Kurakhiv direction, a battle continues near Kostyantynivka. The situation remains under the control of the Defense Forces.
The enemy paid a high price for yesterday's activity in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. According to detailed information, the Russian aggressor lost a total of 534 people killed and wounded in these two directions alone. Four tanks of the occupiers, nine armored combat vehicles and six cars were destroyed. In addition, three more tanks, four armored combat vehicles and two artillery systems were damaged.
In the Orihiv direction, 3 enemy assaults were repulsed in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Robotyny, and Novoandriivka. Loss of positions is not allowed.
In the rest of the directions, the situation did not undergo significant changes.
The Defense Forces of Ukraine are taking all necessary measures to deter the enemy's offensive, exhaust its combat potential, and stabilize the situation.
Join the Defense Forces!
Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ
На Курахівському напрямку триває бій поблизу Костянтинівки. Ситуація залишається під контролем Сил оборони. Високу ціну ворог заплатив за вчорашню активність на Покровському та Курахівському напрямках. За уточненою інформацією тільки на цих двох напрямках російський агресор сумарно втратив...
t.me
Saattaa ryssäkin epäillä tuota. Mutta eivät ilmeisesti mahda asialle yhtään mitään. Ilmapuolustus on niin luokatonta. Hyvä vaan kun annetaan ryssän tutista pöksyissään.
Kustaanmiekka
Kenraali
YLE:
Saksan hallituksen tiedottaja kertoi tänään, että jatkossa Ukraina saa iskeä Venäjän puolelle puolustautuessaan hyökkäystä Venäjää vastaan.
Länsimaat ovat olleet erimielisiä siitä, saako Ukraina käyttää lännen aseapua iskuihin Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Ruotsi, Alankomaat, Suomi, Viro, Ranska ja Britannia eivät rajoita länsiaseiden käyttöä, mutta Saksa ja Yhdysvallat ovat aiemmin vastustaneet länsiaseiden käyttöä iskuihin Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Ukraina on kuitenkin mediatietojen mukaan käyttänyt ainakin kerran Saksasta saamaansa amerikkalaista Patriot-järjestelmää Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Lähteet: Reuters, AFP
Saksa antoi Ukrainalle luvan iskeä saksalaisaseilla Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä
Saksa on muuttanut kantaansa aseidensa käyttörajoituksista Venäjän alueella, uutistoimistot Reuters ja AFP uutisoivat.Saksan hallituksen tiedottaja kertoi tänään, että jatkossa Ukraina saa iskeä Venäjän puolelle puolustautuessaan hyökkäystä Venäjää vastaan.
Länsimaat ovat olleet erimielisiä siitä, saako Ukraina käyttää lännen aseapua iskuihin Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Ruotsi, Alankomaat, Suomi, Viro, Ranska ja Britannia eivät rajoita länsiaseiden käyttöä, mutta Saksa ja Yhdysvallat ovat aiemmin vastustaneet länsiaseiden käyttöä iskuihin Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Ukraina on kuitenkin mediatietojen mukaan käyttänyt ainakin kerran Saksasta saamaansa amerikkalaista Patriot-järjestelmää Venäjää vastaan Venäjän maaperällä.
Lähteet: Reuters, AFP
VanhaPate
Respected Leader
Ennustajanlakki päähän:F-16 ei vaan taida olla kovinkaan kummoista vaikutusta nimenomaan panssarisodankäyntiin. Ukrainan hyökkäys kilpistyi ensisijaisesti massiivisiin miinoitteisiin ja toissijaisesti lennokki/drone kykyihin. Tst-hekojen laukomat pst-ohjukset ovat olleet loppujen lopuksi aika harvinaista kauraa vaikka johonkin yksittäiseen yritykseen ovat saattaneet merkittävästi vaikuttaakkin.
summasummarum: F-16 ei putsaa etulinjaa lennokeista/droneista, miinoitteista puhumattakaan! Jotain muuta ratkaisevaa on keksittävä jos oman hyökkäyksen mielitään johtavan etenemiseen. F-16 hellittänee ensijaisesti ryssän pommitusten alla olleen puolustuksen + rintaman lähellä olevien kaupunkien painetta. Myös oman takaportaan tilanne saattaa hellittää oleellisesti jos ryssän tiedustelu lennokit saadaan omasta syvyydestä täydellisesti ulos
F16 tullessa peliin sillä pidetään krimin taivas puhtaana, ITtä onkin jo lanattu ja lauttoja paskottu. Maihin noustaan kuin normandiassa konsanaan kaikilla mahdollisilla purtiloilla laajalla rintamalla. Krimin kaatuessa ukrainalle menettää rantakaistale merkityksensä ja ryssä potkii itää kohti.
Ohjus-tiedustelija
Ylipäällikkö
Molemmat täydennys reitit maita pitkin pitäisi katkaista (sillan lisäksi) ja sen jälkeen hoitaa omien joukkojen huolto + suojata se. Näillä eväillä yllätyksen kautta voisi onnistuakkin.
Kaiken kaikkiaan tuskin riittää vaan resurssit moiseen.
Epäilen että krimi yritetään kypsyttää samaan tapaan kuin muutkin, pelaamalla huolto pois pelistä, sitten joskus, jos ryssälä on enää edes pystyssä silloin
Hanski
Ylipäällikkö
Tässä kuvassa olisi kyllä ainesta vuoden uutiskuvaksi!
Harvapartio
Eversti
Turvallisuusyhteistyösopimus Ruotsin kanssa. Sen kautta apua 9 miljardilla 2022-2026. Eli jäljellä pitäisi olla.. yli 6 miljardia?
E: 6.5 miljardia v. 2026 asti ja määrä tulee kasvamaan sopimuksen voimassaolon aikana.
E: 6.5 miljardia v. 2026 asti ja määrä tulee kasvamaan sopimuksen voimassaolon aikana.
Viimeksi muokattu:
ddude
Majuri
Ymmärtääkseni myös Ukraina saanut venäjältä maksun putken käytöstä.
Lisäksi kaasua mennyt ainakin Unkariin ja muihinkin ei niin Ukrainan puolella oleviin maihin niin uskon että Ukraina haluaa katkaista putken käytön mahdollisimman "neutraalisti".
Muistanko täysin omiani(paljon mahdollista), mutta jostain lukenut/kuullut, että Suomen ja neuvostoliiton välillä oli jokin viljasopimus jatkosodan aikana?
Harvapartio
Eversti
NYT:n artikkelin mukaan Lloyd Austin on jo antanut määräyksen jonka mukaan Ukraina voi avata tulen sotilaskohteisiin venäjälle amerikkalaisilla aseilla. USA:n viranomaiset odottavat ensimmäisiä Ukrainan tekemiä vastaiskuja tunneissa tai päivissä. Lupaa ei kuitenkaan ole pitkän matkan iskuihin esimerkiksi Atacms-ohjuksilla. Artikkelin mukaan lupa tällaisiinkin iskuihin on jo saatu muilta, esim. Britannialta, Ranskalta ja Saksalta.
www.nytimes.com
Under Pressure, Biden Allows Ukraine to Use U.S. Weapons to Strike Inside Russia
White House officials said the president’s major policy shift extended only to what they characterized as acts of self-defense so that Ukraine could protect Kharkiv, its second-largest city.
President Biden, in a major shift pressed by his advisers and key allies, has authorized Ukraine to conduct limited strikes inside Russia with American-made weapons, opening what could well be a new chapter in the war for Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Thursday.
Mr. Biden’s decision appears to mark the first time that an American president has allowed limited military responses on artillery, missile bases and command centers inside the borders of a nuclear-armed adversary. White House officials insisted, however, that the authorization extended only to what they characterized as acts of self-defense, so that Ukraine could protect Kharkiv, its second-largest city, and the surrounding areas from missiles, glide bombs and artillery shells from just over the border.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” a U.S. official said in a statement issued by the administration. “Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of ATACMS or long-range strikes inside of Russia has not changed,” the statement continued, referring to an artillery system, provided to Ukraine, that has the capability to reach deep inside Russian territory.
The decision by Mr. Biden was reported earlier on Thursday by Politico.
American officials said that the change in policy went into effect on Thursday.
Though the White House cast the decision as a narrow one, allowing the Ukrainians to strike pre-emptively if they see evidence of preparations for an attack, or in response to a Russian barrage near Kharkiv, the implications are clearly much broader. Until now, Mr. Biden has flatly refused to let Ukraine use American-made weapons outside of Ukrainian borders, no matter what the provocation, saying that any attack on Russian territory risked violating his mandate to “avoid World War III.”
But having reversed his position, even in limited circumstances, Mr. Biden has clearly crossed a red line that he himself drew. And administration officials conceded that if Russia mounted other attacks from inside its territory beyond Kharkiv, the president’s restrictions could be subject to further loosening. “This is a new reality,” one senior official said, declining to speak on the record, “and perhaps a new era” in the Ukraine conflict.
Much may depend on how the Russians react to the change in the next days and weeks — or whether they react at all. Russia has warned that it will respond, in unspecified ways, if the United States shifts policy. Last week, as word of an impending change took place, Russia conducted drills for the forces that move and deploy tactical nuclear weapons, in what appeared to be a signal to Washington.
Russia has repeatedly played the nuclear card in the 27 months since it invaded Ukraine, mostly notably in October 2022, when it appeared the entire Russian military invasion of Ukraine could collapse. Gen. Mark A. Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, often talked about the “nuclear paradox,” that the closer the Russians came to losing in Ukraine, the higher the nuclear peril.
But now Mr. Biden’s reversal raises a new question: How will Russia react to strikes that employ American weapons inside its territory? It is impossible to know exactly where President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will draw his red line. Mr. Putin has not responded to Britain’s decision to ease the restrictions on its weapons, but in the Russian leader’s mind, the United States is a different kind of rival.
Inside the White House, Mr. Biden’s deliberations were very closely held, known only to a very narrow group of aides. But The New York Times revealed last week that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had come back from a sobering trip to Kyiv and privately told the president that his 27-month-long ban against shooting American weapons into Russian territory was now placing parts of Ukraine in peril. The Russians, he said, were exploiting the president’s ban and mounting constant attacks from a safe haven just inside the Russian border.
But by that time, Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had already concluded that the geography of the battle around Kharkiv would require an exception to the hard rule that the United States had set against firing into Russia, senior officials said. Ukraine was suffering from what one official called “an artificial line” in the middle of the battlefield that kept them from responding to devastating attacks. Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Austin concluded that it made no sense to restrict the Ukrainians from responding — even while maintaining a ban on using American equipment for long-range strikes deep into Russia.
Some American allies had already gone further. Britain weeks ago allowed Ukraine to use its Storm Shadow long-range missile systems for attacks anywhere in Russia, and France and Germany recently took the same position. So did Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO.
From the outside, it appeared that each of those countries was mounting a campaign to get Mr. Biden to change his mind. But American officials insisted that only Britain reached its decision before Washington did, and that by the time the major European allies supported the change, they had been told Mr. Biden was headed in the same direction.
The decision follows weeks of intense behind-the-scenes conversation with the Ukrainians, made more urgent after Russia began a major assault on Kharkiv around May 10.
Three days later, on May 13, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Austin and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., held one of their regularly scheduled secure video conferences with their Ukrainian counterparts. Once again, the Ukrainians pressed for Mr. Biden to lift U.S. restrictions on firing into Russian territory, arguing that the president’s concerns about escalation were overblown. But now, they said, the issue had become more urgent because the Russians were shelling civilian sites around Kharkiv from inside their border — knowing that the Ukrainians could not fully respond.
After the meeting, officials said, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Austin and General Brown decided to recommend to the president that he reverse his position. But they kept the decision very close. Two days later, on May 15, Mr. Sullivan conveyed the recommendation to Mr. Biden, who — for the first time — said he was inclined to carve out an exception that would allow the Ukrainians to strike back, even if Russian attacks were coming from just a few miles behind the Russian border. By then, Mr. Blinken was already in Kyiv and had heard the case for a reversal directly from President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The same day as the private meeting with Mr. Sullivan, the president saw Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the four-star commander of the U.S. European Command and the supreme allied commander for Europe. He was in Washington for an annual meeting of all the combatant commanders, and told Mr. Biden that he also agreed that the ban on firing into Russia was posing a danger to Ukraine — though he, too, one official said, was concerned about the possible Russian reactions.
Mr. Blinken returned from Kyiv and saw Mr. Biden and Mr. Sullivan on the evening of May 17 in the Oval Office, saying that he emerged convinced that the United States had to alter its stance. It was clear by then that Mr. Biden was in agreement, officials said, but the president insisted that before he issued a formal decision, he wanted a meeting of his national security “principals” to consider the risks. That meeting did not take place until last week, just as news of Mr. Blinken’s change of view leaked out.
White House officials were clearly angry about the leak, and some said they were worried it would tip off the Russians or interfere with the final decision-making. The formal orders did not get conveyed to the Pentagon until earlier this week. Mr. Blinken, who knew the change was coming, hinted at the possibility in Moldova, where he left open the possibility that the United States might “adapt and adjust” its stance because the situation on the ground had changed. But he did not say that the president had already reversed course, and White House officials refused to comment.
Mr. Biden has never publicly commented on the internal debate that led him to change his approach. So it is unclear whether he now believes that the risk of escalation — including nuclear escalation — has declined, or whether the prospect that Ukraine might lose more territory changed his view.
So few members of the National Security Council or the Pentagon knew of the change that a Pentagon spokeswoman, Sabrina Singh, was still defending the old policy on Thursday afternoon in a briefing for reporters. She repeatedly said that there was no change. “The security assistance that we provide Ukraine is to be used within Ukraine, and we don’t encourage attacks or enable attacks inside of Russia,” she said.
But she insisted that Ukraine could be effective by focusing on tactical and operational targets that directly influence the conflict within its boundaries, she said. “So our policy hasn’t changed.”
In fact, it had, days before. No one had told her, defense officials say, that Mr. Austin had already released orders to allow Ukraine to open fire, with American weapons, on military targets over the Russian border. U.S. officials now say they expect that the first counterattacks with American weapons will begin within hours or days.
Mr. Biden’s decision appears to mark the first time that an American president has allowed limited military responses on artillery, missile bases and command centers inside the borders of a nuclear-armed adversary. White House officials insisted, however, that the authorization extended only to what they characterized as acts of self-defense, so that Ukraine could protect Kharkiv, its second-largest city, and the surrounding areas from missiles, glide bombs and artillery shells from just over the border.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” a U.S. official said in a statement issued by the administration. “Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of ATACMS or long-range strikes inside of Russia has not changed,” the statement continued, referring to an artillery system, provided to Ukraine, that has the capability to reach deep inside Russian territory.
The decision by Mr. Biden was reported earlier on Thursday by Politico.
American officials said that the change in policy went into effect on Thursday.
Though the White House cast the decision as a narrow one, allowing the Ukrainians to strike pre-emptively if they see evidence of preparations for an attack, or in response to a Russian barrage near Kharkiv, the implications are clearly much broader. Until now, Mr. Biden has flatly refused to let Ukraine use American-made weapons outside of Ukrainian borders, no matter what the provocation, saying that any attack on Russian territory risked violating his mandate to “avoid World War III.”
But having reversed his position, even in limited circumstances, Mr. Biden has clearly crossed a red line that he himself drew. And administration officials conceded that if Russia mounted other attacks from inside its territory beyond Kharkiv, the president’s restrictions could be subject to further loosening. “This is a new reality,” one senior official said, declining to speak on the record, “and perhaps a new era” in the Ukraine conflict.
Much may depend on how the Russians react to the change in the next days and weeks — or whether they react at all. Russia has warned that it will respond, in unspecified ways, if the United States shifts policy. Last week, as word of an impending change took place, Russia conducted drills for the forces that move and deploy tactical nuclear weapons, in what appeared to be a signal to Washington.
Russia has repeatedly played the nuclear card in the 27 months since it invaded Ukraine, mostly notably in October 2022, when it appeared the entire Russian military invasion of Ukraine could collapse. Gen. Mark A. Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, often talked about the “nuclear paradox,” that the closer the Russians came to losing in Ukraine, the higher the nuclear peril.
But now Mr. Biden’s reversal raises a new question: How will Russia react to strikes that employ American weapons inside its territory? It is impossible to know exactly where President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will draw his red line. Mr. Putin has not responded to Britain’s decision to ease the restrictions on its weapons, but in the Russian leader’s mind, the United States is a different kind of rival.
Inside the White House, Mr. Biden’s deliberations were very closely held, known only to a very narrow group of aides. But The New York Times revealed last week that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had come back from a sobering trip to Kyiv and privately told the president that his 27-month-long ban against shooting American weapons into Russian territory was now placing parts of Ukraine in peril. The Russians, he said, were exploiting the president’s ban and mounting constant attacks from a safe haven just inside the Russian border.
But by that time, Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had already concluded that the geography of the battle around Kharkiv would require an exception to the hard rule that the United States had set against firing into Russia, senior officials said. Ukraine was suffering from what one official called “an artificial line” in the middle of the battlefield that kept them from responding to devastating attacks. Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Austin concluded that it made no sense to restrict the Ukrainians from responding — even while maintaining a ban on using American equipment for long-range strikes deep into Russia.
Some American allies had already gone further. Britain weeks ago allowed Ukraine to use its Storm Shadow long-range missile systems for attacks anywhere in Russia, and France and Germany recently took the same position. So did Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO.
From the outside, it appeared that each of those countries was mounting a campaign to get Mr. Biden to change his mind. But American officials insisted that only Britain reached its decision before Washington did, and that by the time the major European allies supported the change, they had been told Mr. Biden was headed in the same direction.
The decision follows weeks of intense behind-the-scenes conversation with the Ukrainians, made more urgent after Russia began a major assault on Kharkiv around May 10.
Three days later, on May 13, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Austin and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., held one of their regularly scheduled secure video conferences with their Ukrainian counterparts. Once again, the Ukrainians pressed for Mr. Biden to lift U.S. restrictions on firing into Russian territory, arguing that the president’s concerns about escalation were overblown. But now, they said, the issue had become more urgent because the Russians were shelling civilian sites around Kharkiv from inside their border — knowing that the Ukrainians could not fully respond.
After the meeting, officials said, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Austin and General Brown decided to recommend to the president that he reverse his position. But they kept the decision very close. Two days later, on May 15, Mr. Sullivan conveyed the recommendation to Mr. Biden, who — for the first time — said he was inclined to carve out an exception that would allow the Ukrainians to strike back, even if Russian attacks were coming from just a few miles behind the Russian border. By then, Mr. Blinken was already in Kyiv and had heard the case for a reversal directly from President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The same day as the private meeting with Mr. Sullivan, the president saw Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the four-star commander of the U.S. European Command and the supreme allied commander for Europe. He was in Washington for an annual meeting of all the combatant commanders, and told Mr. Biden that he also agreed that the ban on firing into Russia was posing a danger to Ukraine — though he, too, one official said, was concerned about the possible Russian reactions.
Mr. Blinken returned from Kyiv and saw Mr. Biden and Mr. Sullivan on the evening of May 17 in the Oval Office, saying that he emerged convinced that the United States had to alter its stance. It was clear by then that Mr. Biden was in agreement, officials said, but the president insisted that before he issued a formal decision, he wanted a meeting of his national security “principals” to consider the risks. That meeting did not take place until last week, just as news of Mr. Blinken’s change of view leaked out.
White House officials were clearly angry about the leak, and some said they were worried it would tip off the Russians or interfere with the final decision-making. The formal orders did not get conveyed to the Pentagon until earlier this week. Mr. Blinken, who knew the change was coming, hinted at the possibility in Moldova, where he left open the possibility that the United States might “adapt and adjust” its stance because the situation on the ground had changed. But he did not say that the president had already reversed course, and White House officials refused to comment.
Mr. Biden has never publicly commented on the internal debate that led him to change his approach. So it is unclear whether he now believes that the risk of escalation — including nuclear escalation — has declined, or whether the prospect that Ukraine might lose more territory changed his view.
So few members of the National Security Council or the Pentagon knew of the change that a Pentagon spokeswoman, Sabrina Singh, was still defending the old policy on Thursday afternoon in a briefing for reporters. She repeatedly said that there was no change. “The security assistance that we provide Ukraine is to be used within Ukraine, and we don’t encourage attacks or enable attacks inside of Russia,” she said.
But she insisted that Ukraine could be effective by focusing on tactical and operational targets that directly influence the conflict within its boundaries, she said. “So our policy hasn’t changed.”
In fact, it had, days before. No one had told her, defense officials say, that Mr. Austin had already released orders to allow Ukraine to open fire, with American weapons, on military targets over the Russian border. U.S. officials now say they expect that the first counterattacks with American weapons will begin within hours or days.
Ilman muuta ydinaseiden rinnalle tarvittaisiin sitä konventionaalista voimaa. Kysymys kuitenkin on se, katsooko Kremlin herra ja lakeijansa asian olevan näin vai lyödäänkö Ukrainassa talouden ja tulevaisuuden lisäksi uhrialttarille myös maavoimien kalusto, kyky ja miesvoima.
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