Ukrainan konflikti/sota

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Trump valmistelee taloudellista iskua Venäjää vastaan – pyytää EU:ta mukaan

Yhdysvaltojen presidentin tulliehdotuksen tarkoituksena on painostaa Venäjän hallintoa lopettamaan Ukrainan hyökkäyssota.
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Presidentti Donald Trump kertoi eurooppalaisille virkamiehille olevansa valmis asettamaan laajoja uusia tulleja Intialle ja Kiinalle pakottaakseen presidentti Vladimir Putinin neuvottelupöytään Ukrainan kanssa – mutta vain jos EU-maat tekevät samoin.
 
Puolalainen Jaroslaw Wolski kirjoitti oman alustavan näkemyksensä viime yönä Puolan ilmatilassa tehdyistä dronejen torjunnoista, tässä kirjoituksen käännös (lihavoinnit samat kuin alkuperäisessä kirjoituksessa, eivät minun tekemiä siis):

Russian drone attack through Polish territory - what do we know? (7:15) This is a side effect of a major air and missile attack on Ukraine that took place tonight. The drone attacks targeted Lutsk and Lviv, while Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles also struck Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk. According to the statement @DowOperSZ more than a dozen Russian drones violated Polish airspace.

According to information from viewers (thank you!), the drones entered the Dorochuck-Dubienka area and headed south, 8 km east of Chełm, towards Zamość and Tomaszów Lubelski, passing approximately 10-12 km east of both cities and heading further south. At least two drones were shot down near Cześnika-Niewierków (15 km east of Zamość). Unconfirmed reports from viewers claim that several drones may have been headed for Lublin, but this has not been confirmed.

There is currently no information on how many drones were shot down. Further information from viewers suggests that the drones left the area several kilometers north of Hrebenne. The incident occurred between 1 and 3 a.m. Ukrainian sources suggest that more drones flew over our territory, heading from south to north (so the opposite of what I described) , but information from viewers and readers suggests that the flight route was north to south - analogous to previous incursions into Polish territory.

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Comment:

1. The Russians deliberately set a flight route through Polish territory.

2. This route roughly repeats known locations of previous drone flights and crashes.

3. This is an obvious testing of the Polish Armed Forces and the entire decision-making chain from the government through the Ministry of National Defense to pilots and anti-aircraft units.

4. Since the decision was made to shoot at the anti-aircraft missiles, it means that some of them were clearly headed towards larger cities such as Zamość or Tomaszów Lubelski.

5. Ukrainian sources indicate a large number of random drones that may have fallen victim to UA electronic warfare and flown over our territory as a result. However, information from viewers suggests a distinct route that Russian drones attempted to follow . I believe this is not a coincidence, a malfunction, or a result of UA EW, but rather a deliberate programming of the route by the Russians to avoid Ukrainian air defense and EW by flying over our territory. I believe this decision was made at the political level in Russia as part of the response to the closure of the border with Belarus and as part of the escalation surrounding the ZAPAD exercises.

6. NATO air forces were widely involved in the operations – let's not forget that our allies are here and protecting us.

7. We can expect an intensification of Russian information activities, which will fuel the fear psychosis surrounding this incident and attempt to build a narrative about NATO's ineffectiveness, the low quality of the Polish Armed Forces, and the inability to defend Poland.

8. Good information activities should be commended. @DowOperSZ, @SztabGenWP and @MON_GOV_PL. I'm afraid that the counter-attack will be a classic mainstream media stunt, which will present us with drones jumping out of the fridge :-)

1757493676026.webp

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965652835581780328
 
www.iltalehti.fi

Analyysi: Putin hyökkäsi Puolaan – Näin Venäjän yllätyshyökkäykseen Nato-maahan varaudutaan

Ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan lähteiden mukaan Venäjän sodanjohto on voinut arvioida, että ainoa mahdollisuus Naton haastamiseen on nyt, kun Nato-maiden varustautuminen on vasta alussa, Iltalehden politiikan toimittaja Lauri Nurmi kirjoittaa.
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Onko nyt niin, että jos NATO-maat eivät oikeasti nyt ja heti puutu tähän, ja ala esimerkiksi järjestelmällisesti tuhota droonien ja ohjusten tukikohtia ja/tai valmistajia, käy kuten Krimin valloituksessa ja sen jälkeen muissa hyökkäyksissä Ukrainaan? Punaisia viivoja ja rajamerkkejä siirrellään vain pitemmälle ja pitemmälle, käytetään vain puheenvuoroja, ja sillä aikaa Venäjä jatkaa pokkana hyökkäystään ja hybridisotaansa. Eikös tässä juuri reagointia testailla, ja reagoidaanko nyt muuten kuin sormea nostamalla, "soo soo"?

Vai miten on toimittava, vai eikö mitenkään "kun kyseessä oli vain vahinko"?
 
köyttäjä kirjoitti:
www.iltalehti.fi

Analyysi: Putin hyökkäsi Puolaan – Näin Venäjän yllätyshyökkäykseen Nato-maahan varaudutaan

Ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan lähteiden mukaan Venäjän sodanjohto on voinut arvioida, että ainoa mahdollisuus Naton haastamiseen on nyt, kun Nato-maiden varustautuminen on vasta alussa, Iltalehden politiikan toimittaja Lauri Nurmi kirjoittaa.
www.iltalehti.fi www.iltalehti.fi

Onko nyt niin, että jos NATO-maat eivät oikeasti nyt ja heti puutu tähän, ja ala esimerkiksi järjestelmällisesti tuhota droonien ja ohjusten tukikohtia ja/tai valmistajia, käy kuten Krimin valloituksessa ja sen jälkeen muissa hyökkäyksissä Ukrainaan? Punaisia viivoja ja rajamerkkejä siirrellään vain pitemmälle ja pitemmälle, käytetään vain puheenvuoroja, ja sillä aikaa Venäjä jatkaa pokkana hyökkäystään ja hybridisotaansa. Eikös tässä juuri reagointia testailla, ja reagoidaanko nyt muuten kuin sormea nostamalla, "soo soo"?

Vai miten on toimittava, vai eikö mitenkään "kun kyseessä oli vain vahinko"?
Klikkaa laajentaaksesi...
No tuskin tässä nyt iha niin pitkälle mennään,tässä kohtaa se menee vielä tällä ja tärkein on juuri tuo alas-ampumisen normalisointi ja se että linja on sama oli kyseessä sitten puola-viro-latvia-liettua tai suomi.Jos homma jatkuu niin sillä kohtaa on sitten toki syytä todeta että seuraavalla kerralla nasahtaa joku ryssän laite/laitos tai mikä vaan paskaks vaatauksena....Vittu että riepoo toi paskavaltio
 
Sensei142 kirjoitti:
No tuskin tässä nyt iha niin pitkälle mennään,tässä kohtaa se menee vielä tällä ja tärkein on juuri tuo alas-ampumisen normalisointi ja se että linja on sama oli kyseessä sitten puola-viro-latvia-liettua tai suomi.Jos homma jatkuu niin sillä kohtaa on sitten toki syytä todeta että seuraavalla kerralla nasahtaa joku ryssän laite/laitos tai mikä vaan paskaks vaatauksena....Vittu että riepoo toi paskavaltio
Klikkaa laajentaaksesi...

Puolan kohdalla homman voi vielä selitellä olevan vahinko mutta vaikkapa Suomen tai Viron kohdalla ei kyllä enää.
 
Hirveesti uutisoidaan, että nyt aktivoidaan 4:s artikla. Hui kamala.... kyllä ryssät nyt varmasti on peloissaan, jos 4:s artikla aktivoidaan ja aletaan kokoustelemaan ja neuvottelemaan. Huhhuh... on tää ny vaa taas niin saamatonta Euroopalta.

Nyt vaa takas samalla mitalla ja vähä isommalla kädellä.
 
Vakuuttavaa ja vaikuttavaa toimintaa olisi saada valvottua droonien ja ohjusten koko matka, ja jos ne "eksyvät" NATO-maihin, iskeä välittömästi sinne, mistä hyökkäävä ilma-alus oli lähtenyt (sen lisäksi että alus eliminoidaan). Valitettavasti tähän ei taida löytyä valmiuksia, vai löytyykö?
 
Minkälaiset mahdollisuudet Suomessa olisi torjua noita, jos kuvitellaan vaikkapa että Savon tai Karjalan seuduille alkaisi tuulen mukana vahingossa kulkeutua harjoituksissa käytettäviä, harjoitusta varten räjähteillä ladattuja parvia? Puolalaisten torjuntaprosentti ei ollut kovin kummoinen. Toki torjunnan tarve aina riippuu siitäkin minkälaisiin kohteisiin alukset vaikuttavat olevan menossa, tai ovat mahdollisesti menossa.
 
köyttäjä kirjoitti:
Vakuuttavaa ja vaikuttavaa toimintaa olisi saada valvottua droonien ja ohjusten koko matka, ja jos ne "eksyvät" NATO-maihin, iskeä välittömästi sinne, mistä hyökkäävä ilma-alus oli lähtenyt (sen lisäksi että alus eliminoidaan). Valitettavasti tähän ei taida löytyä valmiuksia, vai löytyykö?
Klikkaa laajentaaksesi...
Luuletko että Natolla tai Puolalla ei ollut tilannekuvaa? Aivan varmasti oli.

Ei ole sattumaa että 20 ryssän taistelu lennokkia rikkoo Puolan ilmatilaa ja niitä joudutaan ensi kertaa ampumaan alas.
 
Ryssän MoD:n virallinen vastaus:

Russian Defense Ministry released a statement regarding the incursion of Polish airspace by Russian UAVs. There's no straightforward denial in this statement:

▪️Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with long-range precision weapons of land, sea and air basing, as well with OWA-UAVs on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnytsia and Lviv.

▪️All goals of this operation were achieved. All planned targets were hit.

▪️There were no planned targets on the territory of Poland for this operation.

▪️The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strikes, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km.

▪️Nevertheless, we are ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense on this topic.

https://t.me/mod_russia/56450

Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with high-precision long-range weapons of land, sea and air basing, as well as strike unmanned aerial vehicles, on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnytsia and Lviv.

▫️These enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex carried out the production and repair of armored and aviation equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the manufacture of engines and electronic components for them, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️On the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city of Lviv, the workshops of the Lviv Armored Plant, where armored vehicles were repaired and modernized, and the Lviv Aircraft Plant LDARZ, where long-range unmanned aerial vehicles were produced and combat aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repaired, were damaged.

✅ The strike targets have been achieved. All designated objects have been hit.

❗️ There were no targets planned for destruction on Polish territory.

▫️The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strike, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km.

▫️However, we are ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense on this issue.

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t.me/mod_russia/56450

29.5Kviews

Sep 10 at 15:08

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965753667245502510

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Ryssä avaa suunsa ja kuullaan valheita (yleensä nämä ovat tietoisia valheita eli sanotaan jotain joka sitten kumotaan saman raportin toisessa lauseessa, ja oletetaan että kaikki hyväksyvät mukisematta tämän valheen):

Russian Defense Ministry: There were no targets on Polish territory. Russian drones that allegedly crossed the Polish border cannot fly more than 700 km

https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/10-september-12-russian-defense-ministry-there-were-no-targets

In the same report they claimed attack in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions (more than 700 kms)

1757508237529.webp

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965751568411840978
 
Vertaa todennettujen osumien sijainteja aikaisemmassa viestissä olevaan ryssän vastaukseen (ehkä nämä olivat ilmaa kevyempiä droneja jotka voimakas itätuuli valitettavasti painoi kauemmas kuin 700km laukaisupaikalta?):

Locations in Poland where Russian drones were found today shown on a map:

Cześniki (Zamość County, Lublin Voivodeship) - 1 drone,

Czosnówka (Bialski County, Lublin Voivodeship) - 1 drone,

Wyryki Wola (Włodawa County, Lublin Voivodeship) - 1 drone and a damaged building,

Krzywowierzba Kolonia (Parczew County, Lublin Voivodeship) - 1 drone,

Wyhalew (Parczew County, Lublin Voivodeship) - remains of a projectile of unknown origin,

Wohyń (Radzyń County, Lublin Voivodeship) - 1 drone,

Mniszków (Opoczno County, Łódź Voivodeship) - 1 drone,

Oleśno (Elbląg County, Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship) - 1 drone.

https://slowopodlasia.pl/artykul/39470,mswia-informuje-o-odnalezieniu-8-obiektow

1757508456229.webp

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965739879658123621
 
Tatarigami_UA kommentoi droneja näin:

Based on the data available so far, the incident tonight is best described as “probing.” It's a step in a gradual escalation against Europe - progressing from jamming and sabotage operations to single drone flights, and now small swarms over the EU and NATO member Poland.

I prefer not to speculate whether this was a signal tied to a specific event or just probing on its own, since there is no data on this. Yet, without a doubt, Russia will study the reactions, taken measures, and the public response - all of which will determine its next steps

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965661946658914486

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Lainaan pari viesteihin tullutta kommenttia alle.

Kommentti: Possible explanation is probing PL, but not exactly attack on PL, but using Polish airspace to attack western Ukraine. The path of the drones suggests RU wanted to bypass Ukraine air defense and WRE. Probing NATO air defence and social attack are probably secondary objectives.

Johon Tatarigami_UA vastasi näin: No, that’s called plausible deniability. Some drones flew straight into Poland, nearly reaching the central part, not around it. That’s exactly the point: to give people room for mental gymnastics to argue it’s not an attack.

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Kommentti: Even if this was not intentional, the response (or lack of) will be scrutinized.

Johon Tatarigami_UA vastasi näin: Given the flight path taken by the drones, the same route used by some of the past "stray" drones, the chance this happened randomly, on such a scale, is extremely unlikely.
 
Venäjän puolustusministeriö ei kiellä droonien mahdollista "harhautumista" Puolaan. Ministeriön mukaan drooneilla ei ollut tarkoitus osua Puolan alueelle ja se on valmis konsultaatioihin Puolan kanssa.

Defense Ministry comments on Poland's statements about UAV incident​


MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. Russian troops did not plan to hit targets on Polish territory, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.

"There were no plans to hit targets on Polish territory," the Russian military department said.

They added that the maximum range of the UAVs used, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km.

The Russian Defense Ministry is also ready to hold consultations with the Polish Defense Ministry "on this topic."

They reported that the Russian Armed Forces struck Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnytsia and Lviv.

"Nevertheless, we are ready to hold consultations with the Polish Defense Ministry on this topic," the Russian Defense Ministry emphasized.
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https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/25016593
 
Ensimmäinen kerta historiassa:

Russia’s drone incursion into Poland marked the first time in its history that NATO planes have engaged potential threats in allied airspace, per Col. Martin L. O’Donnell, the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesperson.

NATO’s Allied Air Command and the Netherlands’ Air Force “responded and engaged potential threats to allied territory,” O’Donnell said, and the incursion prompted a multi-layered response from other NATO allies as well.

“German Patriots in Poland were placed on alert, and an Italian airborne early warning plane and an aerial refueler from NATO’s Multinational Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft fleet was launched,” O’Donnell said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965736077781618726
 
Hyvä myös tiedostaa tämä:

Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards found in Russian drones downed in Ukraine in early July:

https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war...lis_polski_sim_karti-20169.html#goog_rewarded


The Kremlin has been preparing drone attacks on Poland since July: Polish SIM cards were already detected on Russian UAVs​



DEFENSE EXPRESS

[email protected]

September 10, 2025, 10:42

8484​

The remains of the Russian Gerber UAV in Poland after the attack on the night of September 10 (photo: @wolski_jaros)

The remains of the Russian Gerber UAV in Poland after the attack on the night of September 10 (photo: @wolski_jaros)


​

Russians have long been using 4G modems with SIM cards to transmit intelligence information from their drones, and Polish SIM cards were spotted on Russian UAVs shot down in Ukraine in early July, which Warsaw was warned about.​


The targeted Russian attack on Polish territory with long-range drones on the night of September 10, which the Polish government called an "unprecedented violation of airspace" and a "large-scale provocation," is far from the first episode of the Kremlin's gradual escalation. Moreover, everything indicates that this and other similar attacks have been in preparation for quite some time.​


In particular, at the beginning of July, information was published in Poland itself that 4G modems with SIM cards of Polish operators were found among the wreckage of Russian drones shot down in Ukraine.​

​

Information about this was published by Polish journalist Marek Budzysh with a reference to a report received on July 2 (without indicating the authorship) with quite detailed information, including where exactly the Russian drones were shot down.​

​

LÄHDE
1757510424103.webp

Viestissä jaettu linkki = https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:EU:16f10341-5db9-4a4d-b837-3dfca0457509

Tässä linkin takaa aukeavan pdf-tiedoston teksti ja kuvat:

Information Brief

02.07.2025

SIM cards from Poland and Lithuania in downed Shahed-type UAVs.

Currently, we are conducting research on the control systems of two Shahed-type combat UAVs, in which mobile modems (two in each UAV) with inserted SIM cards were discovered.

Sample No. 1
Shot down in the Kyiv region near the settlement of Chmyrivka.

SIM card No1:
Provider: ТЕЛЕ-2, russian federation
ICCID: 89701203595601177778

1757510681433.webp

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SIM card No2:
Provider: T-mobile, Poland ICCID: 8948022124030285732U

1757510708831.webp

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Sample No2
Shot down in Kirovohrad region (exact location not established)

SIM card No1:
Provide: MKS, russia ICCID: 8979800000056061525

SIM card No2:
Provider: PYLDYK, Lithuania
ICCID: 89370038009032595595

1757510760400.webp

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According to our information, several attack drones were shot down, in which Lithuanian SIM cards were found.

Conclusions:

1. Considering the corridors where the drones with Lithuanian and Polish SIM cards were shot down, there is reason to believe that the drones were most likely moving towards areas near Ukraine's western border.

2. The presence of two SIM cards on the drones, one Russian and the other Polish or Lithuanian, suggests that the enemy has begun practical preparations for drone flights over the territories of Poland and Lithuania.

3. It is most likely that the technique of connecting drones to Polish mobile networks using Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards is being practiced.

4. We believe it is necessary to inform partners in Poland and Lithuania about the discovery of SIM cards from Polish and Lithuanian providers in Russian longrange attack drones.

In addition to the Polish SIM cards, a SIM card from a Lithuanian operator was also found in one of the drones. The report stated that this directly indicates that the Russian Federation is preparing to fly drones over the territory of these countries and test connections to mobile networks.​


The report, whose authorship is unknown, but apparently of a fairly high level, also directly states: "we consider it necessary to inform partners in Poland and Lithuania about the discovery of SIM cards of Polish and Lithuanian providers in Russian long-range strike drones." Which was apparently done in the end, because a week later it was already at the disposal of a Polish publicist.​


The remains of the Gerber in Poland after the attack on the night of September 10 (photo: @WarNewsPL1)
​

The remains of the Gerber in Poland after the attack on the night of September 10 (photo: @WarNewsPL1)​

​

At the same time, this information caused almost no resonance in Poland, despite the fact that back in the summer, Russian drones began to fly into its airspace on a regular basis. And some of them even exploded on the ground, as happened on August 20 near the village of Osiny in the Lublin Voivodeship , which is 40 km from the air base where NATO air patrols are located .​


At the same time, mobile Internet on Russian drones is necessary for transmitting information from the UAV itself and adjusting its flight. Depending on the additional equipment installed on the drones, the Russian Federation can receive information about the operation of air defense and electronic warfare systems, as well as transmit visual information from the camera. All this has long been and consistently used by racists against Ukraine.​


It is currently unknown whether the Russian drones that attacked Poland today had such means. At the same time, the assumption that one of the tasks of this Russian attack was precisely reconnaissance of the Polish air defense system is quite reasonable. Especially considering that the Russian-Belarusian exercises "West-2025" are due to begin on September 12 in Belarus.​


https://twitter.com/x/status/1965755769246376257
 
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