Kasparovin
haastattelusta pari poimintaa.
trumpin Ukraina-kanta on muuttunut. trump vaihtaa perspektiiviään jatkuvasti. Hän ihailee vahvoja, autoritäärisiäkin, johtajia - mutta tärkeintä on olla voittajan puolella. trump on alkukantainen intuitiivisten vaistojensa varassa.
Alkuvuonna hän uskoi Zelen olevan häviämässä, niin hänelle uskottelivat mm vance - siksi valkoisen talon ensitapaamisen katastrofi. Kesän aikana trump huomasi, ettei ryssä voitakaan. Nyt putler on häviäjä. Zelestä tuli 'tough guy', trumpin arvostuksen mittainen.
Nyt trumpin ympärillä on ihmisiä, jotka kertovat; kun Ukraina tuhoaa [usan avustamana] ryssän infraa ja pakottaa siten rauhaan, on trumpilla parhaat edellytykset julistaa hänen olleen rauhan ratkaisija. Joten trumpin ajatuksissa nyt putlerin vahingoittaminen on tavoiteltavaa, puoli vuotta sitten se oli zelen positio.
Trump does not change his nature, which means he can change his perspective all the time. Trump seems quite natural to me. He sympathizes with strong and authoritarian leaders but also wants to be on the winning side. He believed Zelenski was losing and Putin was winning, and the first meeting in the White House reflected that. Vance and others convinced him that Ukraine was losing, and he followed his instincts.
By the end of the summer, Putin was not winning. The Ukrainians were pushing back. In Trump's mind, Putin is now losing. With Zelenski, the tone changed, and he started seeing him as a tough guy. Trump is very primal. His instincts tell him who is winning, and he aligns himself. I would not rule out that shift.
Trump wants to end the war. I believe people around him are convincing him that the sooner Ukraine destroys Russian infrastructure, the more options he will have to claim that he ended it. Six months ago, he thought the way was for Zelenski to be defeated. Now he sees that his best option is to harm Putin.
Ukrainan lippu Sevastopolissa on ainoa tapa päättää sota. Sota, joka ei ole vain putlerin vaan ryssän idea imperiumista. Niin kauan kuin ryssien pääosa ajattelee näin, ei ratkaisua ole. Paras tapa on shokki-terapia ryssälle.
That's why the Ukrainian flag in Sebastopol is the only chance to end the war, which is fueled not only by Putin's madness but also by the widespread Russian idea that the Empire must remain great. As long as many Russians believe in the empire, the conflict will not end. That virus must be eradicated. The only way is through shock therapy
ryssäyhteiskunta on kyllästetty sodalla. kaikki on sotaa. putlerin perintö on sota, josta ei ole ulospääsyä. Se voidaan lopettaa tuhoamalla ryssän resurssit sodankäyntiin. Eskalaatio on osa sodan luonnetta. Jos ei sitä pysäytetä, se leviää. Ukrainasta pitää tehdä voittamaton piikkisika.
And he has no way out. Russian society is entirely imbued with war. The economy is war. Everything is war. Even if one day he woke up wanting to get out, he can't. War is his only legacy. The way to stop it is to destroy the resources that allow him to continue. So far, determination from the West is not seen. Escalation is the nature of war. If it's not stopped, it spreads like cancer.
Jos putlerin armeijaa ei tuhota Ukrainassa, se hyökkää toisaalla. Kasparov on vakuuttunut, että ryssä tekee provokaation baltiassa vielä tänä vuonna. putler haluaa osoittaa, että vitos-artikla ei toimi ja nato on kuollut. Siihen saattaa putlerin odotuksien mukaan riittää rajoitettu operaatio.
If Putin's armies are not destroyed in Ukraine, they will go elsewhere. I am convinced that the next step in escalation will be a small-scale provocation against a Baltic country before the end of the year. He will do it. He just needs to show that Article 5 does not work. His goal is to prove that NATO is dead, and the best way is to display its impotence. He will try it with a limited incursion. I'm not talking about a massive invasion or attacking Poland. He knows that would end very badly for him. But a limited incursion in Estonia or Latvia is another matter.
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