Now on to your question – the situation is out of control. Any model has a time horizon in planning with parameters for performance within functional boundaries. Now there is none of this: most input parameters are junk based on political decisions.
Last Sunday all resources were allocated to “ensure stability of all processes in 3-5 days.” A reasonable question: what if nothing gets better in 3-5 days? We weren’t allowed to even work on such a scenario –(instruction to the analysts -) find methods, think, and work.
(They were told
"We will survive 3-5 days, then the situation will improve, and will start planning for long-term." These 3-5 days have passed. Situation got worse. The only constant is this approach.
What we don’t have for a normal model:
- reliable information on the events in the Russian regions
- reliable data on the real state of the army units
- reliable data on the military prospects of the operation. There are whole sets of data from various departments and services, and they contradict each other, which means there’s nothing.
-a well-developed model of economic management under the current restricted conditions (sanctions) - reliable information with regards to loyalty of the elites in the financial and political sectors. - reliable data on the impending extreme measures to be implemented in Russia.
What we do have:
- a constant stream of new data on "emergent" economic problems that "cannot exist": partial failures in the supply chains of raw materials can stop complex processes, including the production of strategic products (military), the (non) functioning of single-industry towns and industrial agglomerations;
- the expected explosive growth of banditry and crime, due to the superposition of several factors including: economic problems, a decrease in the mental stability of the population from stress + war psychosis + compounded nervous state from isolation measures
- situational planning of the political sort without assessing the long-term [and even short- and medium-term] prospects for their introduction;
- segregation/compartmentalization of workflow and services and departments due to the loss of a unified management system;
- the growth of foreign policy threats, including military
- there is no guarantee that Japan will not attack the Kuril islands or that Georgia will not attack Ossetia-Abkhazia, Syria and Libya is preparing for attacks against our units);
