Hanski
Ylipäällikkö
Mahtaako elää tai olla vallassa vielä huomiseen saakka...????
Uutisia Valko-Venäjältä
- Viestiketjun aloittaja Tvälups
- Aloitus PVM
JR49
Respected Leader
Lukasenko taitaa haluta sinnitellä vallankahvassa. Rautatievaunujen lukumäärästä huolimatta.
Tämähän voi tästä muuttua vielä mielenkiintoiseksi
JR49
Respected Leader
Mahdollista verenvuodatusta ja sodan uhkaa Venäjän toimesta maassa, joka rajautuu NATO-maihin Baltiassa, valmiiksi jännitteinen tilanne Itämerellä. NATO kohottaisi valmiutta entisestään samaan aikaan Venäjän ja Kaliningradin kanssa. Miten reagoivat EU ja USA?
Huhhuh. Tuon skenaarion jättäisin kyllä mielelläni näkemättä.
Mitäs mieltä olette, joko näkyisi Suomessa valmiuden näkyvänä nostona?
Huhhuh. Tuon skenaarion jättäisin kyllä mielelläni näkemättä.
Mitäs mieltä olette, joko näkyisi Suomessa valmiuden näkyvänä nostona?
Nenialas Idook
Kapteeni
Tuollahan sinä tämän viestiketjun edellisen sivun alussa muistelet kuulleesi valmiuden noston alkupisteeksi Valko-Venäjän tilannetta. Ken elää, se näkee, sanoi Barbie. Ei tämä kyllä oikein hyvältä näytä.
Ensin Regnum, "anti-fasistinen" "uutistoimisto" julkaisee uutisen. Sitten Kommersant.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REGNUM_News_Agency
Lukashenkan on tarkoitus pitää huomenna linjapuhe.
Saa nähdä onko tämä eroamisutinen tekosyy jonkun "kansallisen pelastuskomitean" vallankaappaukselle ja sitten onkin jo nukkehallitus vallassa..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REGNUM_News_Agency
Lukashenkan on tarkoitus pitää huomenna linjapuhe.
Saa nähdä onko tämä eroamisutinen tekosyy jonkun "kansallisen pelastuskomitean" vallankaappaukselle ja sitten onkin jo nukkehallitus vallassa..
JR49
Respected Leader
Toivon kuulevani, että olen pessimisti
.Kyllä minä mainitussa tilanteessa kyllä ennustan kertauksien määrän rajua nousua.
Nenialas Idook
Kapteeni
Tuo on mielestäni mahdollinen skenaario. Onkohan tästä uutisoitu Valko-Venäjän puolella mitenkään?
Edit: Ainakin eng.belta.by dementoi tuon uutisen:
Viimeksi muokattu:
ak.tied
Greatest Leader
Mikäli mainittu uutinen pitää paikkansa, niin tilanne voi eskaloitua hyvinkin nopeasti. Tunnelma ainakin kiristyy salamana. Valmiustason nosto pitäisi tehdä kyllä saman tien eikä odottella sotatoimien alkamista. Kertauskutsut postiin sitten maanantaina.
USA:n reaktio paljastaisi sitten Trumpin linjan suhteessa Venäjään - tulisiko Ukrainan toisinto vai ilmottaisiko USA aloittavansa V-V:n aseistamisen. EU reaktio olisi samanlainen kuin Ukrainankin kohdalla - tuomitseva ja muistutus V-V:n suvereniteetista, eli ininää.. ellei sitten Trump saisi ärähdettyä Eurooppaa fleksaamaan muskeleita. Siinä kohdassa Suomella olisi kyllä jo perusteet osittaiseen liikekannallepanoon ja kaikin puolin kusinen paikka.
Rajajääkäri
Ylipäällikkö
Mitä tarkoittaisi käytännössä osittainen liikekannallepano?
Valmiussitoumuksen tehneiden kutsumista palvelukseen.
Näitäkin on itse asiassa aika paljon, vaikka yksityiskohtia ei nyt kukaan lähde julkisuudessa pohtimaan.
Rajajääkäri
Ylipäällikkö
Ehkä myös luolastojen 2a6:ien ja telahaupitsien varastorasvoja alettaisiin pikkuhiljaa poistaa?
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
Mielenkiintoisia kuvia - Minsk n. vuosi sitten:
Edit: Voin vain kuvitella että tällaisia porukoita ei olisi kadulle päästetty muutama vuosi sitten. Nyt kun Lukashenkalla on paskat housussa niin ymmärtää ehkä että jos joku hänet vielä voi pelastaa, on se aiemmin lytätty Valko-Venäläinen kansallistunne, joka varmaan saa vaan lisää tulta Venäjän yrityksistä kiistää koko valtion olemassaolon oikeutus.
TOIVOTTAVASTI ovat nyt valmistautuneet niin että kynnys olisi kuitenkin liian suuri Venäjälle - tunnen tuolta työyhteyksissä joitakin ihmisiä ja ovat todella mukavaa ja asiallista porukkaa. Ei huvittaisi nähdä heidän maataan Putinin näpeissä, vaikka onhan se nytkin varsin kyseenalaisissa käsissä. Lukashenka ei kuitenkaan hyökkäile muihin maihin.
Tuossa kuvassa on lippu, jonka alla sotaa Venäjää vastaan käydään jos siihen joudutaan. Valkopunavalkoinen on Valko-Venäläispatrioottien väri. Vuoden 1991 jälkeinen lippu, jonka Mr. L. vaihdatti myöhemmin siihen, mitä nykyisin käytetään.
Kun joistain asioista on juttua ihan julkisissa medioissa (kuten nyt sanomastani), niin voin sanoa, että Suomessa on aika paljon porukkaa ns. "8 tunnin valmiudessa". Eli 8h on maksimiaika, jolloin pitää olla paikalla. Se määrä ei myöskään ole kymmeniä.
Yleisesti tietyissä joukoissa palvelleita, mukaanluettuna rajavartiolaitos.
Karttaruutupommitkin voisi kaivaa esille.
JR49
Respected Leader
Valko-Venäjän ongelma on muun muassa se, että johtajat armeijassa on todennäköisesti Venäjän läpeensä soluttamia. Toisaalta, Ukrainan tapahtumista on ollut aikaa ottaa oppia.
PekkaSavo
Ylipäällikkö
Suomi on Venäjälle hankalampi paikka jos tänne tunkevat. Hyvin vähän on täällä sen tempun ymmärtäjiä - jos verrataan vastaavassa tilanteessa Valko-Venäjään.
Jos Suomeen tulevat niin silloin todennäköisesti rajat auki "suvakeistakin" tulee rajat kiinni "suvaitsemattomia" ja kaikilla on sama yhteinen tavoite häätää tunkeutujat ulos. Oppositiossa ei kukaan tulijoista iloitse eikä hallituksessa.
Mediakin saattaa jopa ryhdistäytyä. Alkaisivatko toivoa Trumpilta apua?
Me olemme siis hyvin yhtenäisiä, niin yhtenäisiä että ymmärretäänkö sitä idässä?
Mutta Valko-Venäjä... se on jo ajautunut kohti Venäjää
Lukashenka on aloittanut uuden formaatin keskustelutilaisuuden lehtimiesten kanssa. Painottaa puolustusta, itsenäisyyttä ja viittaa Donbassin tapahtumiin. Ei ole ilmoittanut mitään eroa Venäjän projekteista. Kertoo että Putin on kertonut että Venäjällä on eri voimia, joita kaikkia ei pidä ottaa vakavasti.
Englanniksi
http://belsat.eu/en/news/lukashenka-razmaulyae-z-zhurnalistami-i-ekspertami-u-novym-farmatse-onlajn/
Valkovenäjäksi (päivittyy nopeammin)
http://belsat.eu/news/lukashenka-razmaulyae-z-zhurnalistami-i-ekspertami-u-novym-farmatse-onlajn/
Tässä valkovenäläinen analyytikko syyttää Regnumin "uutista" informaatiosodankäynniksi"
http://belsat.eu/programs/alyaksand...id-i-chargovaya-prayava-infarmatsyjnaj-vajny/
Englanniksi
http://belsat.eu/en/news/lukashenka-razmaulyae-z-zhurnalistami-i-ekspertami-u-novym-farmatse-onlajn/
Valkovenäjäksi (päivittyy nopeammin)
http://belsat.eu/news/lukashenka-razmaulyae-z-zhurnalistami-i-ekspertami-u-novym-farmatse-onlajn/
Tässä valkovenäläinen analyytikko syyttää Regnumin "uutista" informaatiosodankäynniksi"
http://belsat.eu/programs/alyaksand...id-i-chargovaya-prayava-infarmatsyjnaj-vajny/
sirra
Kapteeni
Lukashenko ilmoitti tänään lehdistötilaisuudessa, että Venäjän kaavailemaa lentotukikohtaakaan ei oikeastaan kaivata Valko-Venäjälle. Lukashenkon mukaan Venäjä voisi ihan hyvin siirtää 20 konetta Valko-Venäjlle ja niitä voisi sitten lentää valko-venäläiset pilotit. Moskovassa voi joltakin päästä suusta :"blyad!", kun käyvät siellä läpi näitä Lukashenkon lausuntoja.
http://tass.com/world/928883
http://tass.com/world/928883
JR49
Respected Leader
En linkitä venäläisiltä sivuilta mitään, mutta nopean selailun perusteella, FSB on ilmoittanut jonkinlaisen rajalinjan perustamisesta V-V:n ja Venäjän välille. Lukasenko sanoi, ettei nielaise syöttiä.
Jos nyt oikein ymmärsin, rajalinja on kuin veteen piirretty viiva siellä, ja jos Venäjä haluaa ärsyttää Lukasenkoa johonkin reaktioon, niin mikä olisi kätevämpää kuin "vahingossa" vetää linjansa naapurin puolelle.
Jos nyt oikein ymmärsin, rajalinja on kuin veteen piirretty viiva siellä, ja jos Venäjä haluaa ärsyttää Lukasenkoa johonkin reaktioon, niin mikä olisi kätevämpää kuin "vahingossa" vetää linjansa naapurin puolelle.
Tässä yhteenvetoa kipukohdista
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/02/03/russia-is-in-a-quarrel-with-belarus
--------------------------------
Russia is in a quarrel with Belarus The major conflicts which have contributed to worsening relations between Moscow and Minsk
16:16, 3 february 2017
РЕКЛАМА НА МЕДУЗЕ
МедиакитЦеныНативная рекламаСвязаться
Открытие границы между Россией и Белоруссией в 1995 году
Photo: Leonid Sverdlov / TASS
In early February 2017, relations between Russia and Belarus deteriorated sharply. Moscow decided to restore the border security zone on the border between the two countries. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Russia of violating an existing border agreement and complained about Russia’s “political attacks”. The border security zone is not the only fragile point in relations between Russia and Belarus. In fact, the two countries are in conflict in regards to at least four essential questions. Meduza has the story.
1. The border
In 1995, Russia and Belarus are united in the “union state”, a measure that completely eliminated border controls. This was convenient for the residents of the two countries, but made it difficult to monitor the movement of the nationals of other countries.
The elimination of the Russian-Belarusian border security zone in 1995.
Photo: TASS
Russian Federation and Belarus have different visa rules with other countries. In January 2017, Belarus announced the introduction of a visa-free regime for citizens of 80 countries entering the country through Minsk airport, including the United States and the European Union. Citizens of these countries will be able to stay in Belarus for up to five days without visas. The visa-free regime will come into force in the first half of February. Russia has a visa regime with all of these nations. In light of Belarus’s new visa-free regime, any visitor from the countries in question can enter the Russian Federation without the knowledge of Russian authorities.
Moscow did not like Belarus’s decisions and began introduce passports checks on flights from Minsk. Shortly thereafter, the FSB demanded that a full-fledged border security zone be introduced along the border.
Russia chose to restore the border without Belarus’s approval, though Moscow claims that the new security measures will not affect the movement of Belarusian and Russian citizens. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has accused Moscow of violating their earlier agreement.
2. Oil and gas
Modern oil-processing infrastructure and refineries were built on Belarusian soil during the Soviet era. But they process Russian oil. It is profitable for Russia to supply oil to Belarus, partly because Belarus produces relatively cheap gasoline and petroleum-based products.
Previously, Russia agreed not to charge export duties on oil delivered to Belarus. As part of the agreement, some of the oil was also returned to Russian in the form of gasoline. However, Belarus itself exports gasoline to the West and charges export duties in the process. So, in effect, Russian oil goes to Europe. The Belarusian budget receives revenue, but the Russian budget does not. “There are international treaties and agreements, and one [official] put an end to all agreements with the stroke of a pen,” said Lukashenko.
Negotiations on how much oil Russia is to supply Belarus on preferential terms and how much it gets back to gasoline are held almost every year and each time with tension.
At the same time there is a conflict in regards to gas: Belarus believes that Gazprom should supply gas to Belarus at Russian domestic prices in light of the Union State. The gas monopoly does not agree with this. Sometimes Belarus allows a significant delay in renewing gas contracts (Gazprom estimates, Minsk’s debt amounted to $340 million for just a portion of 2016). Moscow responds to this by reducing it supply of oil.
At the end of 2016, the oil and gas dispute between Russia and Belarus became especially antagonistic, with mutual accusations and the involvement of high-level politicians (Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev even made a public comment). At the beginning of 2017, Alexander Lukashenko said: “Reductions of oil supplies from the Russian Federation should be [compensated for] by alternatives.”
At a February 3 press conference, Lukashenko’s rhetoric became even harsher: “What is the point? Why grab ourselves by the throat? It is clear that we can do without Russian oil. It will be very difficult,” said the president.
3. Foodstuff
One of the foundations of the Belarusian economy is the export of agricultural products. Russian farmers often complain about the tangible presence of Belarusian goods in the local market. Sometimes, this leads to collisions such as the 2009 “milk war”.
Things became more complicated with Russia’s introduction of counter-sanctions against the West. Forbidden goods enter Russia through Belarus. Minsk has refused to impose a ban on imports. In the absence of proper borders, forbidden foodstuff is easy to deliver into Russia and has become a profitable business.
Sanctions foodstuff confiscated in the Smolensk Region after being smuggled into Russia through Belarus in June 2015.
Photo: Victor Tolochko / Sputnik / Scanpix / LETA
At the end of January 2017, Russia’s agriculture watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor restricted imports from two Belarusian meat-packing plants, as Moscow believes that forbidden Ukrainian beef has been entering Russia under the guise of Belarusian beef.
On February 3, Alexander Lukashenko demanded that criminal proceedings be introduced against the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert for “damage to the state.”
Relations with the West
Belarus’s foreign policy has changed dramatically in the last decade. Earlier, Alexander Lukashenko’s rhetoric was, as a rule, pro-Russian and anti-Western. But from the second half of the 2000s onward, the Belarusian leader has been favoring Europe. In 2014, Lukashenko did not support Russia on the Ukrainian question. What is more, he tried to arrange a meeting for the signing of the Minsk agreements.
In 2015, Alexander Lukashenko agreed to pardon political prisoners, after which the European Union lifted sanctions against him. “I am no longer Europe’s last dictator. There are dictators who are worse than I am, is that not true?” said Lukashenko in an interview with Bloomberg.
By contrast, Russia’s relations with the West have deteriorated. Sanctions have been imposed against Russia and Vladimir Putin’s inner circle (though not the Russian president himself) as a result of the Ukrainian conflict and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Lukashenko explicitly states that Moscow is afraid of Belarus turning towards the West, and does nothing to allay Moscow’s fears.
Written by Mikhail Zelensky and Alexander Polivanov
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/02/03/russia-is-in-a-quarrel-with-belarus
--------------------------------
Russia is in a quarrel with Belarus The major conflicts which have contributed to worsening relations between Moscow and Minsk
16:16, 3 february 2017
РЕКЛАМА НА МЕДУЗЕ
МедиакитЦеныНативная рекламаСвязаться
Открытие границы между Россией и Белоруссией в 1995 году
Photo: Leonid Sverdlov / TASS
In early February 2017, relations between Russia and Belarus deteriorated sharply. Moscow decided to restore the border security zone on the border between the two countries. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Russia of violating an existing border agreement and complained about Russia’s “political attacks”. The border security zone is not the only fragile point in relations between Russia and Belarus. In fact, the two countries are in conflict in regards to at least four essential questions. Meduza has the story.
1. The border
In 1995, Russia and Belarus are united in the “union state”, a measure that completely eliminated border controls. This was convenient for the residents of the two countries, but made it difficult to monitor the movement of the nationals of other countries.
The elimination of the Russian-Belarusian border security zone in 1995.
Photo: TASS
Russian Federation and Belarus have different visa rules with other countries. In January 2017, Belarus announced the introduction of a visa-free regime for citizens of 80 countries entering the country through Minsk airport, including the United States and the European Union. Citizens of these countries will be able to stay in Belarus for up to five days without visas. The visa-free regime will come into force in the first half of February. Russia has a visa regime with all of these nations. In light of Belarus’s new visa-free regime, any visitor from the countries in question can enter the Russian Federation without the knowledge of Russian authorities.
Moscow did not like Belarus’s decisions and began introduce passports checks on flights from Minsk. Shortly thereafter, the FSB demanded that a full-fledged border security zone be introduced along the border.
Russia chose to restore the border without Belarus’s approval, though Moscow claims that the new security measures will not affect the movement of Belarusian and Russian citizens. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has accused Moscow of violating their earlier agreement.
2. Oil and gas
Modern oil-processing infrastructure and refineries were built on Belarusian soil during the Soviet era. But they process Russian oil. It is profitable for Russia to supply oil to Belarus, partly because Belarus produces relatively cheap gasoline and petroleum-based products.
Previously, Russia agreed not to charge export duties on oil delivered to Belarus. As part of the agreement, some of the oil was also returned to Russian in the form of gasoline. However, Belarus itself exports gasoline to the West and charges export duties in the process. So, in effect, Russian oil goes to Europe. The Belarusian budget receives revenue, but the Russian budget does not. “There are international treaties and agreements, and one [official] put an end to all agreements with the stroke of a pen,” said Lukashenko.
Negotiations on how much oil Russia is to supply Belarus on preferential terms and how much it gets back to gasoline are held almost every year and each time with tension.
At the same time there is a conflict in regards to gas: Belarus believes that Gazprom should supply gas to Belarus at Russian domestic prices in light of the Union State. The gas monopoly does not agree with this. Sometimes Belarus allows a significant delay in renewing gas contracts (Gazprom estimates, Minsk’s debt amounted to $340 million for just a portion of 2016). Moscow responds to this by reducing it supply of oil.
At the end of 2016, the oil and gas dispute between Russia and Belarus became especially antagonistic, with mutual accusations and the involvement of high-level politicians (Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev even made a public comment). At the beginning of 2017, Alexander Lukashenko said: “Reductions of oil supplies from the Russian Federation should be [compensated for] by alternatives.”
At a February 3 press conference, Lukashenko’s rhetoric became even harsher: “What is the point? Why grab ourselves by the throat? It is clear that we can do without Russian oil. It will be very difficult,” said the president.
3. Foodstuff
One of the foundations of the Belarusian economy is the export of agricultural products. Russian farmers often complain about the tangible presence of Belarusian goods in the local market. Sometimes, this leads to collisions such as the 2009 “milk war”.
Things became more complicated with Russia’s introduction of counter-sanctions against the West. Forbidden goods enter Russia through Belarus. Minsk has refused to impose a ban on imports. In the absence of proper borders, forbidden foodstuff is easy to deliver into Russia and has become a profitable business.
Sanctions foodstuff confiscated in the Smolensk Region after being smuggled into Russia through Belarus in June 2015.
Photo: Victor Tolochko / Sputnik / Scanpix / LETA
At the end of January 2017, Russia’s agriculture watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor restricted imports from two Belarusian meat-packing plants, as Moscow believes that forbidden Ukrainian beef has been entering Russia under the guise of Belarusian beef.
On February 3, Alexander Lukashenko demanded that criminal proceedings be introduced against the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert for “damage to the state.”
Relations with the West
Belarus’s foreign policy has changed dramatically in the last decade. Earlier, Alexander Lukashenko’s rhetoric was, as a rule, pro-Russian and anti-Western. But from the second half of the 2000s onward, the Belarusian leader has been favoring Europe. In 2014, Lukashenko did not support Russia on the Ukrainian question. What is more, he tried to arrange a meeting for the signing of the Minsk agreements.
In 2015, Alexander Lukashenko agreed to pardon political prisoners, after which the European Union lifted sanctions against him. “I am no longer Europe’s last dictator. There are dictators who are worse than I am, is that not true?” said Lukashenko in an interview with Bloomberg.
By contrast, Russia’s relations with the West have deteriorated. Sanctions have been imposed against Russia and Vladimir Putin’s inner circle (though not the Russian president himself) as a result of the Ukrainian conflict and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Lukashenko explicitly states that Moscow is afraid of Belarus turning towards the West, and does nothing to allay Moscow’s fears.
Written by Mikhail Zelensky and Alexander Polivanov