Игорь Яковенко: Для путинской России все отчетливее просматривается "угол", в который она себя загоняет
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The psychology of the last "big hapka"
Igor Yakovenko: Putin's Russia more and more clearly seen "the corner" in which she drives
update: 30-04-2019 (18:22)
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In his autobiography, Putin remembers the episode with the rat, he was cornered, and she attacked him.
"Better never back someone into a corner don't chase" — says that the history of Putin.
This fact in the biography of the President of Russia, apparently, so important to him that he of his biography moved in several propaganda films, including the one that was shown before elections in 2018.
Today, Putin's Russia more and more clearly seen "the corner" in which she drives with their own power structure. This type of power can be called "neonarcissism autocracy", that is autocracy, which is not established dynastic or any other rules of the transfer of power. How will the power in Russia after 2024, when it will expire formally second and the last, but in fact the fifth term of Putin, nobody knows. If we proceed from the thesis of the speaker of the state Duma Volodin, that
"Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin" in 2024, Russia has all the formal grounds disappear.
The situation of uncertainty and lack of planning horizon gives rise to the powerful and influential circles of the public psychology "the last big hapka". Dispassionate barometer, demonstrating the rapid growth of this psychology can serve as the Central Bank's data on dynamics of net capital outflow. First quarter 2019 — $ 25.2 billion, which is 1.6 times more net capital outflows for the first quarter of 2018 — $ 16.1 billion. The outflow of capital for 2018 – a 67.5 billion — 2.6 times the volume of "runaway" from Russia of money in 2017 (25,1 billion dollars).
To an even greater extent psychology "the last big hapka" is evident in the behavior of one of the main beneficiaries of Putin's regime, Igor Sechin and his company. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, commenting on the scandal with the overlap of the pipeline "Druzhba" and the refusal of Poland and Belarus to take "dirty" Russian oil, puts forward the hypothesis that the reason for entering in the export of oil contaminants associated with the aspiration controllable Sechin of Rosneft increase oil production without cost and without regard to the possible international repercussions. In a "last big hapka" long-term, including reputational consequences do not think.
If the behavior of the beneficiaries of the Putin regime is destructive for the Russian economy and poses a risk primarily to its citizens, the behavior of the Russian authorities and Putin personally, who are concerned about the solution to the problem of 2024, pose a serious threat to the world and especially the middle encirclement of Russia.
The easiest way to extend Putin's personal autocracy after 2024 – a radical change in Russia's borders by absorbing another country. The role of the victim in the last time politicians devote Belarus, with which Russia has already created so-called "Union state". It remains to carry out the procedure, opposite to that which was done 28 years ago in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha. Then, instead of state of the USSR was created blank form – CIS. The task now is to fill the blank form of the "Union state" with real content: to introduce a single currency, to unite law enforcement agencies, to create a single point of power. However, this is very tempting for the Kremlin the option has close to zero chances because "Europe's last dictator", Lukashenko consequences of the loss of power is as disastrous as Putin, and therefore it will be for her to fight to the last.
In this regard, the recent statement of Putin on granting Russian citizenship to all citizens of Ukraine looks like the threat of total absorption of Ukraine by Putin's Russia. The question of whether an attempt to "swallow" Ukraine as a whole or to occupy several Eastern and southern regions, can be solved by the Kremlin after it will become clear how many Ukrainian citizens and in which areas wish to obtain a Russian passport.
The choice of the object to absorb the Ukraine, not Belarus can be associated with a world picture in my head of the current master of the Kremlin and its servants. In their system of value coordinates of Minsk's authoritarian regime is above the Kiev with its democracy, pluralism, freedom of speech and separation of powers. All this in the eyes of the inhabitants of the Kremlin and the Old square is nothing like a weakness.
Appeals to division of Ukraine and its partial takeover for several years, constantly heard on the state TV channels of Russia. The call for the passport to absorb Ukraine, which was made of the President of Russia is the next level of threat. The experience of South Ossetia and Abkhazia shows that the transition to the level of military invasion and occupation of today's Russia makes pretty easy. The chances of such a transition and the probability of decision "problems – 2024" by attempt of total or partial occupation of Ukraine dramatically increases the sense of impunity.
The invasion of Georgia in 2008 did not lead to the Kremlin to any negative consequences. No clue. Shameful in addition to the Tagliavini report, in which the blame for the outbreak of war was assigned to Georgia, the escalation of the conflict were accused of equally Georgia and Russia. As if the world has lost the globe and could not understand, whose forces whose territory was at war, and which country lost part of its territory.
(Heidi Tagliavini was the head of the EU Commission on investigation of causes of the armed conflict in South Ossetia. Previously worked at the UN office in Georgia, approx. "Details")
The occupation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war of aggression against Ukraine the world community has condemned unreservedly. What? World leaders continue to accept Putin, the heads of state continue to go to Moscow and Sochi. Continue to communicate with him as if it were a head of state that recognizes international law, and not the main international aggressor, supporting terrorism, organizing and supporting pockets of instability around the world, leading two aggressive war and occupying part of the territory of a sovereign state.
The Fulton speech of Winston Churchill, was made 73 years ago, has rallied the free world to the threat of Stalinist expansion and allowed her to realize and played a role in the fact that the threat of the spread of Communist regimes and their influence did not become an epidemic. Today this speech to pronounce no one.
The degeneration of world leaders has become one of the terms that Putin is walking in the "world buffet". The role of Churchill could play, for example, a group of European intellectuals who recently called to fight for Europe against populism. It is important that these European intellectuals realized that the threat to European civilization today comes primarily from the Kremlin...
Igor Yakovenko
detaly.co.il
