Konflikti Kiinan merellä

[Lepard]

Kyllä heiltä varmasti löytyy edelleen kahden teatterin doktriinin mukaiset voimavarat. Lähinnä olettaisin, että sekä Euroopan, Lähi-Idän ja Itä-Aasian noustua todennäköisimmiksi Suuren Rähinän teattereiksi, he joutuvat pallottelemaan resursseja enemmän Aasian ja Lähi-Idän välillä, vrt. siihen että ovat voineet vuosia rauhassa valita täyden keskittymisen jompaan kumpaan. Kuitenkin Euroopassa voimavarat riittävät jo ihan paikallisten toimesta jos kyse on vain Venäjän pitämisestä aisoissa, ja jenkkien paikallaolon tarkoitus on ennen kaikkea liittouman pitäminen vakaana ja kasassa (ettei heidän itse tarvitsisi kohdistaa niin suuria resursseja vanhan maailman tukemiseksi.) Päätavoite heillä on kuitenkin varmasti pitää yllä laaja-alaista pelotetta pienienkin sotatoimien välttämiseksi ja liittolaissuhteiden ylläpitämiseksi, siis status quon ylläpito, ja tämä on jatkuvasti hankalampaa. Tämä ei tarkoita etteivät he olisi tälläkin hetkellä ja pitkälle tulevaisuuteen suvereeneja jos kakka oikeasti osuu tuulettimeen.

Heritage Foundation, mikä on konservatiivinen ajatushautomo Washington DC:ssä, arvioi vuosittain USA:n asevoimien kykyä ja valmiutta. Heritage ajaa kyky kahden sotanäyttämön yhtäaikaisen sodan käyntiin. Mitoitusperusteena on Toisen Maailmansodan jälkeen USA:n käymien sotien joukkomäärät, ja heidän arvio on että yksi sotanäyttämö vaatii noin 20 maavoimien taisteluprikaatia plus muiden puolustushaarojen tuen. Heritagen tavoitteena on 50 aktiiviprikaatia, kun USA:n maavoimilla on tällä hetkellä 35. Toki kansalliskaartin aktivoimalla saadaan 50 taisteluprikaatia liikkeelle, mutta siihen menee helposti vuosi. Muilla puolustushaaroilla vastaava tilanne.

Euroopassa haasteena on edelleen eurooppalaisten surkea teho-paino -suhde. Puolustukseen laitettuun rahaan nähden taistelujoukkoja saadaan liikkeelle säälittävän vähän ja hitaasti. Jenkit ehtii roudata divisioonan Atlantin yli ennen kuin eurooppalaiset saa edes jamppoja ulos kasarmeista väistöalueille. Uhkaan nähden tilanne on kuitenkin kohtuullinen.

Tyynellämerellä haasteena on "etäisyyden tyrannia", todennäköinen sotanäyttämö on tuplaten kauempana kuin Eurooppa, tukeutumisinfra heikompi ja vastustaja sotakokemuksen määrää lukuunottamatta kovempi. Tämän vuosikymmenen puolesta välistä alkaen Kiina kiistää USA:n toiminnan vapauden heti Hawaijin länsipuolelta lähtien, eli pitää taistella koko matka varsinaiselle toiminta-alueelle. Ja Kiina kasvattaa asevoimaansa edelleen ja sillä on myös taloudellinen kantokyky ylläpitää sitä, päinvastoin kun Venäjä.

 

[Olympiakasarmi]

Näinhän se menee. Kiinan ja venäjän yhteistyöstä ei ole viimeaikoina voitu oikein puhua. Rauhaisa yhteiselo on ehkä parempi termi.

Onkohan Biden valinnut tämän maltillisen linjan aasian kasvavien lentotukialustalkoiden takia? Jatkuva eskalaatio ja kolmen tukialuksen pitäminen aasiassa vie käytännössä kaikki lähi-idän resurssit ja pienentää liikkumavaraa esim Iranin suhteen valtavasti.

Tukialusresurssit ovat juuri nyt heikoilla. Roosevelt on Kiinan edustalla ja Reagan kotisatamassaan Yokosukassa Japanissa. Nimitz on kotimatkalla Havajin luona (miehistö ollut ensin 2 kk koronaeristyksessä ja sitten 8 kk merillä). Eisenhowerin miehistö on saanut COVID-19-rokotteen ja on lähdössä merille (Lähi-Itään?). Seuraava alus onkin sitten Vinson joskus myöhemmin tänä vuonna Tyynelle valtamerelle mukanaan ensimmäinen F-35C laivue. Muut tukialukset ovatkin sitten huollossa tai odottavat sitä, paitsi uusin Ford jota käytetään amiraalin huvialuksena kunnes laivan systeemit on saatu toimimaan.

 

[ctg]

A top Chinese official has outlined plans to ensure only “patriots” run Hong Kong, as Beijing seeks to neuter any remaining democratic opposition and take a more direct role in how the business hub is run.

The landmark speech by Xia Baolong, the head of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, came two weeks before the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp legislature and as speculation grew that further measures were being planned to sew up control of the city.

“The most vital and pressing task to enforce rule by patriots is to improve the relevant systems, particularly the relevant electoral system,” Xia said, according to a speech published by his office. “Being patriotic means loving the People’s Republic of China.”

Hong Kong has never been a democracy – something that has fuelled protests and resentment towards Beijing. However, until recently, the city had a veneer of choice that allowed a small and vocal opposition to flourish at certain local elections.

Close loopholes so only 'patriots' can run Hong Kong – Chinese official

Speculation grows China seeking to block opposition candidates and overhaul judiciary

www.theguardian.com

 

[ctg]

Vietnam continues to make modest improvements to its facilities in the Spratly Islands. In cooperation with Simularity, AMTI has reviewed satellite imagery from the last two years to catalog upgrades to Vietnam’s island outposts since the initiative last surveyed them. This exercise underscores Hanoi’s continuing focus on making its bases more resilient to invasion or blockade and strengthening deterrence by ensuring it can strike Chinese facilities.

Vietnam Shores Up Its Spratly Defenses | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Vietnam continues to make modest improvements to its facilities in the Spratly Islands. In cooperation with Simularity, AMTI has reviewed satellite imagery from the last two years to catalog upgrades to Vietnam’s island outposts since the initiative last surveyed them. This exercise underscores...

amti.csis.org

 

[ctg]

Hong Kong’s government has announced electoral changes requiring office-holders to pledge and maintain an oath of loyalty to Hong Kong and Beijing, or face disqualification and a five-year ban on running for reelection.

A bill to “ensure patriots govern Hong Kong” has been endorsed by the chief executive council and will be tabled in March, the secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, Erick Tsang, told a press conference on Tuesday afternoon.

The announcement came a day after a top Beijing official signalled that major changes would be coming to ensure Hong Kong is run by “patriots” – a clear sign that China intends to no longer tolerate dissenting voices, 23 years after the former British colony was handed over to Chinese rule with a promise it could maintain its own rights and freedoms for 50 years.

Hong Kong plans to make politicians swear oath of loyalty to Beijing

All election participants will have to swear allegiance or face five-year ban under bill to be tabled next month

www.theguardian.com

 

[gekados]

The Sino-American War of 2025

A sharp drop in Sino-US trade rocked both countries after the conflict, with the United States entering a recession that lasted three years

spectator.us

 

[ctg]

Taiwan issued nearly twice as many residence permits to Hongkongers in 2020 compared with the previous year, new government data have shown, further evidence of the continued exodus of people from the city that is under a worsening crackdown.

Pro-democracy supporters and basic freedoms in Hong Kong have been under pressure since the introduction of a national security law by Beijing in late June.

In 2020, the Taiwan government issued 10,813 residence permits and 1,576 settlement permits to people from Hong Kong, according to the immigration department. The figure is almost double that of 2019, when 5,858 residence permits and 1,474 settlement permits were issued. Figures dating back to 2016 hovered around 5,100 residence or settlement permits annually.

Number of Hong Kong residents moving to Taiwan nearly doubles in 2020

Wave of migration comes amid worsening crackdown on freedoms following the introduction of Beijing’s national security law

www.theguardian.com

On February 12, President Rodrigo Duterte, in anguish, finally admitted the importance of the Philippines-U.S. alliance and the need to renegotiate with Washington the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). The statement marked a significant shift in Duterte’s rhetoric on the matter from a year ago, when he pushed for abrogation of the VFA despite the concerns of top cabinet members—a recalibration likely owed in part to China’s continued assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Duterte Finally Admits the Importance of the U.S. Alliance | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

On February 12, President Rodrigo Duterte, in anguish, finally admitted the importance of the Philippines-U.S. alliance and the need to renegotiate with Washington the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). The statement marked a significant shift in Duterte’s rhetoric on the matter from a year...

amti.csis.org

 

[ctg]

Samaan aikaan Kiina sanoo Myanmarille soo-soo, ei näin saa tehdä

A bail hearing for 47 campaigners, election candidates and activists charged with national security offences in Hong Kong has resumed after at least four defendants were taken away by ambulance during Monday’s marathon session, which lasted until 3am.

The group have been charged under Hong Kong’s national security law with conspiracy to commit subversion in relation to an unofficial pan-democratic primary poll held last year before legislative elections that were later postponed.

Prosecutors sought to have bail denied and the case adjourned for three months to allow further time for investigation. The defence objected, questioning why charges had been laid if the case was so far off readiness. By 11pm on Monday, just six submissions had been processed.

The democrat and district councillor Clarisse Yeung fainted in the courtroom at about 1.45am and was taken to hospital. The businessman Mike Lam, district councillor Roy Tam and former legislator Leung Kwok-hung “Long Hair” were also taken away by ambulance, according to local media. A co-defendant, Andy Chui Chi-kin, was reportedly admitted to hospital for unknown reasons before Monday’s hearing.

Hong Kong defendants taken away by ambulance during marathon bail hearing

At least four people charged with national security offences taken to hospital after long court delays

www.theguardian.com

 

[ctg]

Taiwanese pineapples have become the latest victim of deteriorating cross-strait relations, after Chinese authorities suddenly banned imports of the fruit.

The ban, which begn on Monday and is indefinite, was announced by the Chinese customs office on Friday. The customs office said harmful pests had been detected in recent shipments.

Taiwan’s government rejected the claim, accusing Beijing of making an “unacceptable” unilateral decision, and urging citizens and international allies to eat “freedom pineapples” in support of the domestic industry, echoing the campaign to support Australia’s wine producers after Beijing imposed tariffs last year.

Taiwanese urged to eat ‘freedom pineapples’ after China import ban

Government rejects Chinese claim that harmful pests had been detected in recent shipments

www.theguardian.com

 

[Merten sheriffi]

Germany to Sail a Warship Across the South China Sea

The United States on Wednesday hailed plans by NATO ally Germany to sail a warship across the contested South China Sea, calling…

www.marinelink.com

@Analysti

 

[KymJP2K]

Germany to Sail a Warship Across the South China Sea

The United States on Wednesday hailed plans by NATO ally Germany to sail a warship across the contested South China Sea, calling…

www.marinelink.com

@Analysti

FGS Hamburg, eli vanhalla sachen mallilla mennään. Ilmeisesti ne SM2set on sittenkin tarpeen oikeissa sotahommissa?

 

[KymJP2K]

Close loopholes so only 'patriots' can run Hong Kong – Chinese official

Speculation grows China seeking to block opposition candidates and overhaul judiciary

www.theguardian.com

Kuuntelin haastatteluja economistilta ja lähinnä onnellinen ettei tarvitse enää siellä päässä maailmaa asua. Hongkongin edustustoon pekingin toimesta nimetty mannerkiinalainen puhuu mustaa valkoiseksi välittämättä edes kursiivisesti totuuden sivuamisesta. "demokratia ja itsehallinto ei tarkoita että keskusvallan päätösten haastamista. Erimieltä oleminen ei tarkoita että mielenosoitukset pitäisi sallia. Erimielisyydet pitää hoitaa julkisuudelta piilossa" ja niin edelleen.

Hirveätä paskaa. En ymmärrä miten ne kehtaa sivistyneessä hongkongissa syöttää kansalaisille sisäkiinatason propagandaa, joka on suunnattu lähinnä vajaasti lukutaitoisille maalaisille.

 

[ctg]

Hirveätä paskaa. En ymmärrä miten ne kehtaa sivistyneessä hongkongissa syöttää kansalaisille sisäkiinatason propagandaa, joka on suunnattu lähinnä vajaasti lukutaitoisille maalaisille.

Ongelma löytyy Pekingistä. Se suljettu kaupungi on paras esimerkki kuinka tieto ei kulje sinne päättäjille asti ja he itse asiassa eivät näe omien rajojen, tai seiniensä ulkopuolelle. On vain heidän oma kulttuuri ja kaikki muu on sieltä syvältä. Kyllä siinä tilassa vihaksi pistää kun joku yrittää olla erillainen.

Covid on myös hyvä esimerkki kuin he pistivät ihmisiä hiljaiseksi ja mulla on vaikeuksia hahmottaa kumpi on Kiina ja kumpi on Pohjois-Korea kun kummassakin paikassa ihmisten sortaminen on avain onnellaan.

 

[KymJP2K]

Ongelma löytyy Pekingistä. Se suljettu kaupungi on paras esimerkki kuinka tieto ei kulje sinne päättäjille asti ja he itse asiassa eivät näe omien rajojen, tai seiniensä ulkopuolelle. On vain heidän oma kulttuuri ja kaikki muu on sieltä syvältä. Kyllä siinä tilassa vihaksi pistää kun joku yrittää olla erillainen.

Covid on myös hyvä esimerkki kuin he pistivät ihmisiä hiljaiseksi ja mulla on vaikeuksia hahmottaa kumpi on Kiina ja kumpi on Pohjois-Korea kun kummassakin paikassa ihmisten sortaminen on avain onnellaan.

Mietin tuossa olisiko se Xi:n lähettämä uusi varjohallitsija menon muuttumisen takana?

 

[ctg]

Beijing’s South China Sea moves have ramped up with the passing of a law allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to fire on what it identifies as illegal foreign vessels in waters under its jurisdiction. By virtue of China’s nine-dash line claim, this law applies to the entire South China Sea. Given that China’s claims are opposed by other South China Sea claimants as well as numerous non-claimant countries, the law has proven controversial and raises concerns over whether it will increase the risk of confrontation and conflict in the disputed waters.

Beijing Bolsters the Role of the China Coast Guard | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Beijing’s South China Sea moves have ramped up with the passing of a law allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to fire on what it identifies as illegal foreign vessels in waters under its jurisdiction. By virtue of China’s nine-dash line claim, this law applies to the entire South China Sea...

amti.csis.org

 

[KymJP2K]

Beijing Bolsters the Role of the China Coast Guard | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Beijing’s South China Sea moves have ramped up with the passing of a law allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to fire on what it identifies as illegal foreign vessels in waters under its jurisdiction. By virtue of China’s nine-dash line claim, this law applies to the entire South China Sea...

amti.csis.org

Juu tämä oli tammikuinen vastaveto amerikkalaisen rannikkovartioston viimekeväiselle seilille. Toisaalta laki ei taida paljon muuttaa nykytilannetta, jossa rannikkovartiosto ajaa kylmästi "tunkeutujia" päin ja koittaa upottaa laivat päälle ajamalla.

 

[ctg]

Pentagon has submitted a plan to Congress outlining more than $27 billion in proposed spending over the next six years to bolster capabilities across the Pacific region to deter China. This expansion of what is now known as the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, or PDI, would most importantly include the establishment of forward-deployed long-range strike capabilities, including elements that could be armed ground-based cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. In addition, the plan is to add more capable missile defenses, as well as new space-based and terrestrial sensors, and find ways to ensure access to airfields, ports, and other facilities needed to support these efforts and other future distributed operations.

Breaking Defense was among the first to report on these future plans for the PDI, with other outlets subsequently reporting additional details. Congress approved the creation of the PDI in the annual defense policy bill, or National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for the 2021 Fiscal Year, which was passed over former President Donald Trump's veto in January. This initiative, in broad strokes, is meant to mirror the European Defense Initiative (EDI), which was established to deter Russian aggression following the Kremlin's invasion and subsequent annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014.

This Is The Pentagon's $27 Billion Master Plan To Deter China In The Pacific

The plans include calls for deploying long-range missiles in the Western Pacific, new missile defenses and sensor networks, and more.

www.thedrive.com

Kyllä kalliiksi käy kun Guamia kurmotetaan.

 

[Merten sheriffi]

Taiwan | Yhdysvaltain Aasian-joukkojen komentaja: Kiina voi hyökätä Taiwaniin lähivuosina

Yhdysvallat puolustaa Taiwania epävirallisesti, vaikka on solminut diplomaattisuhteet Kiinan kanssa.

www.hs.fi

 

[ctg]

Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, has responded to concerns that young children are being separated from their parents in quarantine centres as the city seeks to control its latest Covid-19 outbreak.

More than 120 cases have been recorded so far in a cluster linked to a high-end Hong Kong gym popular with the expat and finance community. It has prompted the temporary closure of the US consulate, sudden lockdowns of residential buildings for mass testing, and hundreds have been quarantined, giving rise to allegations of alarming family separations.

Under Hong Kong’s quarantine rules, which are among the strictest in the world and have been in place since last year, any positive case is sent to hospital for isolation and all close contacts are quarantined in a government facility for two weeks, including children. Subject to case-by-case assessment, caretakers might be arranged by the family to accompany those with special needs, such as infants, the government said.

Hong Kong leader seeks to allay concerns about child separations in Covid quarantine

Carrie Lam denies there is deliberate policy to separate children from parents as US consulate says it will raise issue ‘at highest level’

www.theguardian.com

 

[ctg]

Two secretaries from US President Joe Biden’s administration and their Japanese counterparts on Tuesday shared concerns about China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region during their first in-person meeting in Tokyo.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin held the so-called two-plus-two talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi.

Speaking at a joint news conference, Motegi said the two countries expressed their concern about a new Chinese law which allows Beijing’s coastguard to use weapons on foreign ships.

Homepage - War Is Boring

From drones to AKs, high technology to low politics.

warisboring.com

The analysts said the Indian Navy is all set to acquire big teeth and long legs this year. While South Block remains tight-lipped about the country’s increasing naval capabilities, HT learns that the Chinese interlocutors during WMCC (working mechanism for consultation and coordination) meetings on disengagement in East Ladakh complained about Indian Navy warships being aggressive against the PLA Navy in the Indian Ocean. Thanks to Indian Navy full deployment in Indian Ocean and real time intelligence from the QUAD allies and France, the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) warships are only deployed around the Gulf of Aden as of now with no presence anywhere else in Indian Ocean.

India’s national security planners are worried about the expanding PLAN and expect Chinese carrier strike force deployment in Indian Ocean by 2023 with Beijing expected to commission a third aircraft carrier this year. That’s one reason the Indian Navy has embarked on its own capability-building drive. India will commission its second aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and second nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arighat this year. While INS Vikramaditya, the other carrier, will be home-based on the western seaboard of India, INS Vikrant will be on the eastern seaboard. Each will have one SSBN and SSN as part of its strike force.

Although the Indian Navy wants a third aircraft carrier with more tonnage than the two existing ones, the strategic planners of the Modi government are still to be convinced of the idea given the massive expenditure involved. The Vikramaditya’s tonnage is 45,000 and the Vikrant’s 37,500. There’s long been talk of a third carrier, INS Vishal, with a tonnage of 65,000, but this could set India back by at least $15 billion.

Homepage - War Is Boring

From drones to AKs, high technology to low politics.

warisboring.com