“If China cuts off oil supply, North Korea would not survive on its own for three months and everything in North Korea would be paralysed,” said Cho Bong-hyun, who heads research on North Korea’s economy at IBK Bank in Seoul.
“This could increase the possibility of North Korea’s collapse and have an adverse impact on China as well. China would rather consider reducing crude oil supply,” he said.
North Korea has virtually no domestic oil production, and has traditionally imported the little demand it has for fuel at its refineries from China and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
North Korea has two refineries: the Ponghwa Chemical Factory sits on the river border with Dandong in China, while the Sungri refinery is located on the Tumen River bordering Russia.
Much of North Korea’s energy is supplied by abundant domestic coal, but oil is used by the military as well as in transport and agriculture.
“Cutting off all oil for an extended period of time, perhaps indefinitely, is probably the toughest economic punishment that China could impose on North Korea. It is highly unlikely that China would take such a step,” said Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“It is possible that it might reduce the flow, stop oil deliveries for a week or two, but not cut it off entirely.”
