Fuel Donor
The Russian fuel market is showing signs of recovery after wholesale gasoline sales fell to a two-year low in September. This stabilization was facilitated, in part, by supplies from Belarus. Analysts believe that dependence on imports may persist until Russian refinery capacity is restored—anywhere from several months to mid-2026.
Sales volumes of Belarusian gasoline on the St. Petersburg Exchange increased 31.7-fold in the first two weeks of October compared to October 2024, reaching 24,720 tons, according to a report by the National Exchange Agency. On October 20, 1,020 tons of gasoline from this country were sold on the exchange. The highest daily sales volume last week—5,700 tons—was reached on October 15. Belarusian fuel supplies remain regular, with significant fluctuations, according to the report.
According to the National Exchange Agency, Belarusian AI-92 gasoline sold at 82,000–82,500 rubles per ton on the Rudnya-Export base on October 20. AI-95 gasoline sold at 85,400–85,500 rubles per ton on the Zlynka-Export base. AI-92 prices on the European Russia Index on October 21 increased by 0.08% to 74,390 rubles per ton, while AI-95 prices fell by 0.02% to 79,660 rubles per ton.
Pavel Bazhenov, President of the Independent Fuel Union, says the increase in Belarusian gasoline sales on the exchange in October is due to a decrease in the supply of Russian fuel due to emergency and scheduled refinery shutdowns.
In September, he said, Belarusian rail deliveries to Russia increased exponentially, reaching 40,000-50,000 tons. Due to lower domestic prices, Belarusian gasoline has become profitable to sell in Russia, Mr. Bazhenov points out. However, he adds, gasoline shortages and shipment delays persist in some Russian regions. The higher price of Belarusian fuel, Pavel Bazhenov says, is driven by export parity and logistics costs.
In mid-September, amid unscheduled shutdowns at some major refineries, wholesale gasoline sales fell to their lowest in two years; in particular, sales of AI-92 gasoline fell by almost a quarter. In early October, among other measures to support the domestic market, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak proposed increasing imports of Belarusian gasoline to Russia to 300,000 tons per month (see Kommersant, October 1).
Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of the Proleum trader, says that large oil companies may purchase more expensive Belarusian fuel for their own gas stations.
He adds that the Russian market's dependence on Belarusian supplies will decrease as domestic refinery capacity recovers.
Pavel Bazhenov agrees, adding that the full restoration of damaged capacity could take several months—until mid-2026 in the worst-case scenario. For now, he continues, while domestic capacity is limited, imports, including from Belarus, are needed as a buffer. He estimates that with the onset of winter, demand for certain fuels will change, and the situation will calm down.
By mid-October, gasoline sales on the exchange gradually began to recover. According to Maxim Dyachenko, a total of 26,760 tons of gasoline were sold in the wholesale segment on October 7, and by October 21, volumes had increased by more than 30%, to 35,760 tons. Formally, he continues, gasoline sales have risen to their highest since early fall. He attributes the increase in gasoline sales on the exchange in October to refineries gradually returning from scheduled maintenance. Demand remains high, but the September rush has passed, and fuel shipment delays have begun to subside, which is having a moderating effect on the market, says Mr. Dyachenko.
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