Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Ev. Kurtz kirjoitti:
Tekisi ihan hyvää ryssille päästä välillä kotiorjan asemasta vieraan vallan orjiksi. Ne osaa kyllä muiden kyykyttämisen, joten olisi jo korkea aika pistää ne kaivamaan ojaa kiinalaisille yliherroille ja opetella uusia ajatuksia kiinalaisilla kesäleireillä.
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Jos tuota ajatusta seurataan, niin venäjä on tosi tarpeellinen, puskuriksi Kiinan ja Euroopan väliin. Käsi pystyyn kuka haluaa kiinan rajanaapuriksemme.
 
Antares kirjoitti:
Ryssän kaasunvienti on laskenut huolestuttavasti, tämän mukaan viimeksi vienti oli näin vähäistä vuonna 1978:

Russian gas exports continue to collapse and reached a level unseen since the fall of the USSR.

“Gazprom has never had such a low production rate in its entire history and that the last time there was similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978, a year when 372.1 bcm were produced”.

Source: https://newsweek.com/russia-gas-production-collapse-ussr-levels-1831087

Russia's Gas Production Collapses to Late-Stage USSR Levels​

BY BRENDAN COLE ON 9/30/23 AT 6:30 AM EDT

Russia Curbs Gas Exports Amid Worsening Diesel Shortage

Russian gas production so far this year has slumped to levels not seen since the 1970s.

The country's state energy giant Gazprom said in its latest report that gas production in the first half of 2023 was 179.45 billion cubic meters (bcm). Gazprom added that this represents a year-on-year decrease of nearly a quarter (24.7 percent), and a 26.5 percent drop in gas supplies to the domestic and foreign markets.

Since Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, sanctions have sought to isolate Russia from the global economy, cutting it off from the SWIFT international banking system and freezing some of its foreign exchange reserves.

Russian gas pipelines

Bird's-eye view of incoming pipelines leading to the Bovanenkovo gas field on the Yamal peninsula in the Arctic Circle on May 21, 2019. Russian energy giant Gazprom said that gas production has slumped in 2023.ALEXANDER NEMENOV/GETTY IMAGES

The invasion also pushed Europe to cut purchases of Russian oil and gas drastically. The continent overcame an energy crunch last winter, in part by reducing energy consumption and finding other suppliers, such as sellers of seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Gazprom report said that the West had contributed to the decrease of the fuel and added that "the adoption in a number of countries of politically motivated decisions aimed at abandoning the import of Russian gas."


Independent Russian-language news outlet Agentstvo reported that Gazprom "has never had such a low production rate in its entire history" and that "the last time there was similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978," a year when 372.1 bcm were produced.

"Since then, the production of gas "has only grown," reported Agentstvo. The outlet added how Soviet gas output also included fields in Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Newsweek has emailed Gazprom for further comment.

In February 2023, Putin accused the West of direct attempts to try to hinder and restrain Russia's gas industry but added that Gazprom "is moving forward and launching new projects."

Thomas O'Donnell, a Berlin-based geopolitical analyst, told Newsweek that Putin had cut gas flows, even before the attack in September 2022 on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany—an act of sabotage that the Kremlin denies responsibility for and which is still being investigated.

"That aspect of Putin's planned energy war has backfired. He prepped for a year before the invasion to keep EU storage empty and then have maximum blackmail leverage by selectively cutting and supplying to EU states—but it failed."

O'Donnell said that the increase in supplies of US LNG helped by Norway and Qatar meant that "the EU didn't have to cave in when Putin cut the gas flows."

"So, that business is now lost to Putin," O'Donnell said, although the EU will face higher prices of new global LNG coming online.

"For Moscow, without new, hugely expensive pipelines all the way to China, this huge Russian gas resource will remain a stranded asset," added O'Donnell, a global fellow with the Wilson Center think tank.

Meanwhile, Gazprom's report reinforces predictions by Russian state bank VEB, reported by Reuters in September, that Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to the European Union may fall to 21 bcm, almost two-thirds lower than last year and a six-fold drop from 2021.

VEB said that Russian gas exports to Europe are expected to fall to 15 bcm in 2026. Russia is offering discounted energy exports to so-called "friendly" countries. However, VEB added that infrastructure constraints mean it would not be able to supply enough gas to Asia to make up for the shortfall.

Gazprom head Alexei Miller will join Putin during the Russian president's visit next month to China to boost trade ties and offset losses of gas sales from the lucrative European market, Reuters reported.
Putin is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for talks in Beijing where he will attend the third Belt and Road Forum which comes months after Xi's high-profile visit to Moscow in March.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1708721923159449865
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Muistanko väärin vai eikö noi kaasureiät menneet jotenkin umpeen jos niitä ei käytetty?
Siksi siellä Suomen rajallakin soihdutettiin niin isolla liekillä että näkyi meille saakka.
Tämä voi olla siis todella iso juttu taloudellisesti mitä ei heti korjata.
 
Ryssälän "Lopullinen ratkaisu" Ukrainalle.

On 20 pages, the recommendations are:
- Provide nuclear weapons to third states
- Permanently destroy all of Ukraine’s infrastructure (incl. transportation/energy) and transform it to an empty agrarian buffer zone
- Deport at least 1-2 million Ukrainians to Siberia



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Thread by @mfphhh on Thread Reader App

@mfphhh: ⚠️ Important: Russian plan for the final destruction of Ukraine 🧵 A few weeks ago, leading Russian scientists published an extensive strategy paper on foreign and domestic policy strategy for the Russian gov...…
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Viimeksi muokattu:
Lavrov kutsui venäläisten autojen pääsykieltoa Euroopan unioniin natsismiksi venäläisiä kohtaan. Sergei-sedällä tuntuu juttujen laatu heikenneen viime vuosina vauhdilla.

Lavrov called the ban on entry into the EU of cars with Russian license plates Nazism​

The ban on the entry of cars with Russian license plates into the European Union (EU) is a manifestation of Nazism towards citizens of the Russian Federation. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on October 2 during the 20th annual meeting of the Valdai international discussion club.

“I was amazed at how quickly the Europeans practically all lost this external good looks with which they covered themselves in recent years, retaining some remnants of not only diplomacy, but also elementary ethics. But in general, this is a manifestation of what is commonly called Nazism,” said the head of the Foreign Ministry.

On September 10, the European Commission (EC) confirmed an innovation in sanctions legislation , within the framework of which Russians will not be able to enter the countries of the European Union with cars registered in Russia, as this will be considered a prohibited import.

As a result, a number of countries have introduced restrictions on the entry of Russian cars . Among such states are Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Germany, and Poland. In recent days, France, Croatia, Bulgaria and Norway have joined this ban.

However, on September 11, the EC allowed EU countries not to confiscate personal belongings of Russians , even if the items are on the sanctions lists. The ban only affects cars and other vehicles designed to carry up to ten people.

The sanctions pressure on Russia increased after the start of a special operation to protect Donbass , the beginning of which was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022.
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https://iz.ru/1583080/2023-10-02/la...-vezd-v-es-avtomobilei-s-rossiiskimi-nomerami
 
ISW pitkä artikkeli eiliseltä (1.10.2023) miksi Putin hyökkäsi Ukrainaan ja miten sodan pitää päättyä.

Yhteenvetona sotaa ei voi lopettaa nykyisille linjoille, koska se antaisi vain Putinille mahdollisuuden yrittää uudestaan vuoden parin päästä. Tämän lisäksi nykyisille linjoille perustuva rauha voi johtaa nykyistä isompaan sotaan/konfliktiin tulevaisuudessa, koska Putin näkisi lännen heikkona.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that installing a pro-Russian g
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

A ceasefire or negotiation format freezing the conflict along the current lines, which are far more advantageous to Russia than the pre-2022 lines were, will be in Putin’s eyes nothing more than a kind of Minsk III—a new mechanism by which to continue to pursue the same aims. Such a “peace” will be no peace at all. It will simply be an opportunity for Russia to rebuild its military and economic power.

There is no path to real peace other than helping Ukraine inflict an unequivocal military defeat on Russia and then helping to rebuild Ukraine into a military and society so strong and resilient that no future Russian leader sees an opportunity like the ones Putin misperceived in 2014 and 2022.

This path is achievable if the West commits to supporting Ukraine in the prolonged effort likely needed to walk down it. If the West is instead lured by the illusion of some compromise, it may end the pain for now, but only at the cost of much greater pain later. Putin has shown that he views compromise as surrender, and surrender emboldens him to reattack.
 
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