Antares
Respected Leader
Lainataanpa Budanov haastattelusta kirjoitetun twiitin koko teksti spoilerin taakse, lisäksi tämän takaa löytyy saksalaisen artikkelin konekäännös:
Since it's Sunday and Budanov (@ChiefDI_Ukraine) gave German ARD an exclusive interview, I briefly summarize the important takes here 
1) Personally, he thinks a Ukrainian offensive this year is possible
2) Everyone is working on the topic of destroying the Crimean Bridge (“Let's see if it still stands at the end of the year”)
3) It is questionable how effective Taurus would be on the Crimean Bridge, but it would, of course, make life easier
4) The EU can replace the no longer forthcoming military aid from the US
5) Most important military aid currently: Artillery systems and ammunition (especially for artillery)
6) After the Czech initiative, there is right now no additional ammunition available at the front (so right now no improvement in the supply of ammunition)
7) He is sure that no Ukrainian official had anything to do with the blowing up of the NS1 & NS2 pipelines and no such orders were given to any authorities
8) He supports the Pope's proposal to exchange all of Ukraine's and Russia's POWs immediately. It is only work to convince Russia.
9) At one point, almost all POWs were close to being exchanged (didn't happen and Russia is currently not interested in doing so)
10) Turkey is no longer playing a more active role in the exchange of POWs. The main role is now played by Ukraine, together with “our friends of the UAE”.
11) Prediction: Russia will move somewhere closer to Chasiv Yar and move towards the city of Pokrovsk, but nothing will change dramatically
12) Nothing will happen in the next two months. Actions will start at the end of May / beginning of June
The interview in German can be seen here:
https://tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-geheimdienstchef-interview-100.html
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Tässä artikkelin tekstin konekäännös. Artikkelissa oli myös Budanovin videohaastattelu, mutta en lainaa sitä tähän vaan sen voi katsoa linkin takaa.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Budanov, describes the situation on the front as “difficult, but under control.” In the ARD interview he said that he expected another Russian offensive at the end of May.
By Vassili Golod , ARD Kiev
Kyrylo Budanov's office is as unusual as the 38-year-old himself. A portrait of the Ukrainian president stands next to an aquarium with frogs. It was also Volodymyr Zelenskyj who appointed him head of the HUR military intelligence service in 2020. There is protective equipment and weapons next to the desk. Because Budanov personally takes part in combat missions.
His job is, among other things, to know what step Russia is planning next. “We expect Russian offensive actions to intensify in late spring and early summer. Especially in the Donbass area,” says Budanov in an exclusive interview with ARD in Kiev. "They will push a little closer to Chaziv Yar. They will move towards the city of Pokrovsk, in the strategic direction of Pokrovsk." The city is located about 70 kilometers northwest of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
He doesn't expect any major changes on the front until this Russian offensive begins. "The situation is quite difficult, but it is under control." Contrary to the assessments of various military experts, Budanov also believes a Ukrainian offensive is possible this year. He didn't want to say anything more about it; the responsibility for this lies with the General Staff.
Without lasting support, things will be “catastrophically difficult” for Ukraine, says Budanov. He expects a significant upswing in the defense industry in Europe this year. Budanov trusts the EU to compensate for the lack of US aid.
Budanov repeatedly asks counter questions with an iron face. A stylistic device that he likes to use in interviews to evade. When asked whether Ukraine could rely on Germany, he replied: "Can we rely on your country? I hope so."
In order to interrupt Russian supplies, the Kerch Bridge also remains an important target: "The bridge is heavily guarded and defended. But everyone is working on this issue."
The Kerch Bridge connects mainland Russia with the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. The bridge remains a strategic goal for Kyiv.
Budanow also reports that Turkey is no longer the central mediator in the exchange of prisoners of war, but the United Arab Emirates.
He estimates the number of people in Russia who openly support the war at over 70 percent. This no longer makes any difference for Ukraine.
The HUR boss also denies Ukraine's involvement in the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines: "I'm more than sure that none of the officials in Ukraine could have had anything to do with it, not even physically. And I know Assurance that such orders were not given to any service."
Budanov explicitly did not want to answer questions about further prospects for the war. First, Ukraine must cope with the challenges in June.
This topic in the program:tagesschau24 reported on this topic on April 7, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.
1) Personally, he thinks a Ukrainian offensive this year is possible
2) Everyone is working on the topic of destroying the Crimean Bridge (“Let's see if it still stands at the end of the year”)
3) It is questionable how effective Taurus would be on the Crimean Bridge, but it would, of course, make life easier
4) The EU can replace the no longer forthcoming military aid from the US
5) Most important military aid currently: Artillery systems and ammunition (especially for artillery)
6) After the Czech initiative, there is right now no additional ammunition available at the front (so right now no improvement in the supply of ammunition)
7) He is sure that no Ukrainian official had anything to do with the blowing up of the NS1 & NS2 pipelines and no such orders were given to any authorities
8) He supports the Pope's proposal to exchange all of Ukraine's and Russia's POWs immediately. It is only work to convince Russia.
9) At one point, almost all POWs were close to being exchanged (didn't happen and Russia is currently not interested in doing so)
10) Turkey is no longer playing a more active role in the exchange of POWs. The main role is now played by Ukraine, together with “our friends of the UAE”.
11) Prediction: Russia will move somewhere closer to Chasiv Yar and move towards the city of Pokrovsk, but nothing will change dramatically
12) Nothing will happen in the next two months. Actions will start at the end of May / beginning of June
The interview in German can be seen here:
https://tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-geheimdienstchef-interview-100.html
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Tässä artikkelin tekstin konekäännös. Artikkelissa oli myös Budanovin videohaastattelu, mutta en lainaa sitä tähän vaan sen voi katsoa linkin takaa.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov expects a Russian offensive in the spring
As of: April 7, 2024 5:11 a.mThe head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Budanov, describes the situation on the front as “difficult, but under control.” In the ARD interview he said that he expected another Russian offensive at the end of May.
By Vassili Golod , ARD Kiev
Kyrylo Budanov's office is as unusual as the 38-year-old himself. A portrait of the Ukrainian president stands next to an aquarium with frogs. It was also Volodymyr Zelenskyj who appointed him head of the HUR military intelligence service in 2020. There is protective equipment and weapons next to the desk. Because Budanov personally takes part in combat missions.
His job is, among other things, to know what step Russia is planning next. “We expect Russian offensive actions to intensify in late spring and early summer. Especially in the Donbass area,” says Budanov in an exclusive interview with ARD in Kiev. "They will push a little closer to Chaziv Yar. They will move towards the city of Pokrovsk, in the strategic direction of Pokrovsk." The city is located about 70 kilometers northwest of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
He doesn't expect any major changes on the front until this Russian offensive begins. "The situation is quite difficult, but it is under control." Contrary to the assessments of various military experts, Budanov also believes a Ukrainian offensive is possible this year. He didn't want to say anything more about it; the responsibility for this lies with the General Staff.
Czech initiative: Ammunition not yet at the front
Currently, Ukraine urgently needs “additional amounts of artillery systems, additional amounts of ammunition,” says Budanov. At the initiative of the Czech Republic, various EU states, including Germany, joined forces to purchase hundreds of thousands of artillery shells on the world market. When asked whether this supply of ammunition was already being felt at the front, Budanov said: "I don't see that yet."Without lasting support, things will be “catastrophically difficult” for Ukraine, says Budanov. He expects a significant upswing in the defense industry in Europe this year. Budanov trusts the EU to compensate for the lack of US aid.
"Taurus would certainly make our lives easier"
The HUR director also reiterates Ukrainian hopes for deliveries of “Taurus” cruise missiles from Germany. “The Taurus would certainly make our lives easier,” says Budanow. "To hit command centers, to hit some very important targets, it's an excellent weapon."Budanov repeatedly asks counter questions with an iron face. A stylistic device that he likes to use in interviews to evade. When asked whether Ukraine could rely on Germany, he replied: "Can we rely on your country? I hope so."
Crimean bridge remains target
With Budanov's participation, Ukraine has been able to retake oil platforms in the Black Sea in recent months and successfully push back the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea with systematic attacks. It is thanks to these operations that Ukraine can once again export grain across the Black Sea.In order to interrupt Russian supplies, the Kerch Bridge also remains an important target: "The bridge is heavily guarded and defended. But everyone is working on this issue."
The Kerch Bridge connects mainland Russia with the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. The bridge remains a strategic goal for Kyiv.
Support for Pope's proposal
Budanov, who is involved in the exchange of prisoners of war on the Ukrainian side, welcomes Pope Francis' Easter initiative to exchange all Russian prisoners for all Ukrainian ones. "I fully support this. Let's do it. There is only one small thing left: to persuade Russia." At the moment he sees no interest on the Russian side in such an action.Budanow also reports that Turkey is no longer the central mediator in the exchange of prisoners of war, but the United Arab Emirates.
Ukraine's involvement in attacks denied
Budanov describes the fact that Russia connects Ukraine, without any evidence, with the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall near Moscow as an "absolutely absurd accusation" that is intended to further consolidate hatred of Ukraine in his own country.He estimates the number of people in Russia who openly support the war at over 70 percent. This no longer makes any difference for Ukraine.
The HUR boss also denies Ukraine's involvement in the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines: "I'm more than sure that none of the officials in Ukraine could have had anything to do with it, not even physically. And I know Assurance that such orders were not given to any service."
Budanov explicitly did not want to answer questions about further prospects for the war. First, Ukraine must cope with the challenges in June.
This topic in the program:tagesschau24 reported on this topic on April 7, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.
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Mielenkiintoisimmat kommentit minun mielestäni:
1) tärkein tarvittava sotilaallinen apu tällä hetkellä: tykistöjärjestelmät ja ammukset (erityisesti tykistölle)
2) EU kykenee korvaamaan Yhdysvaltain sotilaallisen avun (jos sitä ei tule jatkossa)
3) hän on varma että Ukrainan viranomaisilla ei ollut mitään tekemistä NS1 ja NS2 kaasuputkien räjäyttämisen kanssa eikä sellaisesta annettu määräyksiä
4) Budanovin ennuste: ryssä etenee lähemmäksi Chasiv Yar sekä Pokrovsk kaupunkia mutta tilanne ei muutu dramaattisesti
5) "mitään ei tapahdu" seuraavan kahden kuukauden aikana, mutta tilanne muuttuu (actions will start) toukokuun lopussa tai kesäkuun alussa ELI noin kahden kuukauden kuluttua
Hän myös toistaa Kerchin sillasta saman mikä kuultu aikaisemminkin eli tekevät kovasti töitä "projektin" parissa ja kenties silta ei ole enää pystyssä "vuoden 2024 loppuun mennessä".
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