Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Ei ehkä ihan oikea ketju, mutta noista aseavusta saatujen aseiden käyttöehdoista... On sotakin muuttunut kummalliseksi. Mitä jos samoja rajoituksia olis aina käytetty? Hollanti olis Talvisodan aikana sanonut, että ei heitin Fokkereita saa sitte Terijoen itäpuolella käyttää ollenkaan, Britit olis sanonnu että juu lähetetään Blennuja, mutta niillä ei saa pommittaa sitte Terijoki-Joensuu linjan itäpuolella. Sitte olis jenkit viellä sanonnu Brewsteristä ettei sillä sovi sitte lentää neukkujen alueelle... Puhumattakaan sakuista "Saatte Mersuja, mutta ne on laitettava Turun puolustukseen, niillä ei itään saa mennä"... on se sota muuttunu juu... Jaa niin sanoko sakut että panssarinyrkejä ja kauhuja ei saa käyttää kuin Satakunnan alueella, ettei eskaloida? ... no se siitä ihmettelystä taas...
Rajoituksia suurempi ongelma on että niitä pitkänkantaman puikkoja ei ole tai on todella vähän.
 
Itäisen Ukrainan alueella on melko uhkaavan näköinen tilanne Kupianskin seudulla, katso ylin kuva:

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian advances NW of Kupyansk and in Udachne, and Ukrainian advances in Novomykhailivka and Zelenyi Hai.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.2420528/37.0067596

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Tämä on tietysti pitkään kehittynyt tilanne, kuten Pokrovskin seudun "pullistumatkin" eli ei mikään uusi ja yllättävä "läpimurto". Jos selaa DeepstateMAP karttaa ajassa taaksepäin, näkee että uhkaavin Myrnen vallannut kärki on lisätty viimeisen viikon aikana, mutta sitä aikaisemmin tilanne on ollut melko vakaa.

Otin DeepstateMAP kartasta yhden kuvan lisää, tämä on hieman korkeammalta:

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Tässä sama kartta mutta ajanhetki on 25.5.2025:

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Kupiansk on suuri kaupunki tällä suunnalla ja tärkeä Oskil-joen ylityspaikka. Mielenkiintoista nähdä että ryssä ei ole kyennyt valtaamaan Oskil-joen itäpuolisia alueita, vaikka ovat yrittäneet sitä syksystä 2022 lähtien (Ukraina vapautti nämä alueet tuolloin vahvalla vastahyökkäyksellään ja uhkasi jopa Svatovea.

Muistan että tällä suunnalla maantieverkko on paljon harvempi, sama juttu Luhanskin alueen pohjoisosissa. Eteneminen on siis hidasta ja huollon järjestäminen vaikeaa.

Mietinkin, pystyisikö Ukraina vapauttamaan jonkin määrän joukkoja Sumyn suunnalta ja siirtämään ne tänne Kupianskin seudulle. Sumyn suunta vaikuttaa siltä että se on saatu hallintaan ja väitetysti ryssä olisi siirtänyt / siirtämässä joukkoja pois sieltä, tukemaan muiden suuntien hyökkäyksiä (veikkaan että Pokrovskin seutu on erityisen tärkeä).
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Rajoituksia suurempi ongelma on että niitä pitkänkantaman puikkoja ei ole tai on todella vähän.
Oli niitä paljon tai vähän, niin pointti on se, että niitä saa käyttää aivan niin kun parhaimmaksi näkee... Oli mersun G6 malliakin vähän jaettavissa muille, mutta ei niihin mitään käyttörajoitteita liitetty, enemminkin liitettiin täydennystakuu jokaiseen pudonneeseen ;) Käyttörajoitteet ja tavaran riittävyys on ihan eri asioita.... Jos nyt on annettu vaikka " yksi kpl. ohjus. USA." niin käyttäjä saa ite valita mihin se laitetaan
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Satelliittikuvien perusteella näyttää siltä että Novoshakhtinsk öljynjalostamolla olisi vaurioitunut ja/tai tuhoutunut jopa 16 kpl suuria polttoainesäiliöitä:

New satellite images from Dnipro Osint show the western section of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in ruins, with up to 16 storage tanks either heavily damaged or completely destroyed by fire.

FIRMS data shows no active fires now, suggesting the blaze has either been extinguished or burned itself out.


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Isomman Neptunen ensimmäinen virallinen kuva. Tästä ei ole paljoa kuultu, vaikka jo maaliskuussa kerrottiin onnistuneesta ensi-iskusta.

Onneksi Ukrainan risteilevien ja ballististen kehitys ei ole yhden projektin varassa. Toissapäivänä oli tämän tunnetun puolalaisen kommentti, jonka mukaan SAPSAN:n kehitykseen ryssät olivat iskeneet onnistuneesti. Ehkä totta, ehkä ei, joka tapauksessa tämä vaara on koko ajan läsnä.


Onkohan Neptunen testiryhmä hakkeroinut tuon web-kameran "testimaalin" lähettyvillä jotta on saatu live-kuvaa osumahetkestä. ;)
 
Itäisen Ukrainan alueella on melko uhkaavan näköinen tilanne Kupianskin seudulla
Hyvin saman näköinen ja kokoinen pullistuma kuin etelämmässä aikaisemmin. Se mikä tästä uudesta hyökkäyskärjestä tekee vaarallisemman, on se, että kärki on varsin lähellä Kupianskia ja oikeastaan kartan mukaan jo kiertänyt sen taakse. Joukko pystyy vaikuttamaan Kupianskiin heittimillä ja droneilla, mutta ennen kaikkea molemmat Oskil-joen länsipuoliset Kupianskin huolto- ja vetäytymisteistä länteen sekä etelään, ovat nyt muodostuneen kärjen päästä noin 2-3 km etäisyydellä. Tämä tekee Kupianskin huollosta ja mahdollisesta vetäytymisestä vaikeampaa.

Mapsin perusteella Ukrainalaisilla on (tai ainkain on ollut) tilapäissilta Kupiansikin eteläpuolella, joka toiminee alueen henkireikänä ainakin toistaiseksi.

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Resepti tämä kuplan puhkaisemiseen lienee samat kuin aiemminkin etelässä. Pehmitys ilmasta epäsuoralla, dronein ja tarvittaessa ilmaiskuin ja sitten kevyen joukon loppusiivous. Kovin ohkaiselta Ukrainan linja kyllä vaikuttaa kun näitä nyt pääsee tapahtumaan "liukuhihnalta".
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
BBC.ru ja Mediazona ovat julkaisseet tuoreimmat numerot ryssän todennettujen kuolleiden määrästä (artikkeli julkaistu 22.8.2025). Lisäsin kuviin tekstien Google Lens -käännökset.

Tämä on siis ehdoton, todennettu minimi: 124 832 kuollutta.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c15ldx4v0g8o

11,000 dead during peace talks: what we know about Russia's losses in Ukraine by the end of August​

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About the article
    • Author, Sergey Goryashko and the correspondents' department
    • Place of work,BBC
  • August 22, 2025
Using open data, the BBC, together with the publication Mediazona* and a team of volunteers, identified the names of 124,832 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Of these, at least 11,250 people have died since February 11, the date when official negotiations between Moscow and Washington began to end the war in Ukraine.

We included all Russian soldiers killed in the period from February 11, 2025 to the present in this number. In cases where the exact date of death was unknown, we took into account the date of death confirmation in open sources. The real number of deaths during this period will, of course, be higher.

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Contract on the day negotiations begin​


Since February 2025, official representatives of Russia and the United States have begun regular contacts, including on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. On February 11, US Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff flew to Moscow for the first time.

On the same day, 56-year-old native of the Bashkir village of Staroyantuzovo Ranif Fazylov signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense. The next day, for the first time since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the Russian and American presidents spoke on the phone.

Apart from his military service in Orenburg in 1989-1991, Ranif Fazylov had no connection with the army - he studied at school for eight years, graduated from college, returned to his native village, worked on the Pobeda collective farm, and later " worked in various organizations " in the Sverdlovsk region and Bashkortostan.

Portrait of Fazylov against the background of cars

In the last years before going to the front, Fazylov worked as a driver. However, he never had a driver's license - at least that's what he will tell the court.

In 2019, Fazylov got into an accident while driving a ZIL - he did not notice a Seat overtaking him and began to change lanes without using the turn signal. Dodging a collision with a truck, the car flew into a ditch and overturned, the passengers - two adults and a child - were injured. In the lawsuit against Fazylov, the Seat driver claimed that due to the injuries sustained in the accident, his daughter was unable to enroll in university.

In 2020, the Birsk Interdistrict Court of Bashkortostan found Fazylov guilty in a case of violating traffic rules, which resulted in the infliction of serious bodily harm to a person through negligence. Fazylov avoided a prison colony; the court only sentenced him to one and a half years of restricted freedom and banned him from driving for three years.

By the time the man decided to go to war, those restrictions had already expired. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had been going on for almost three years.

Fazylov went to fight as part of the 80th Guards Tank Regiment. He was given the call sign Gamsa. At least, that is what is in the messages from Fazylov's wife and sisters - since the end of April, they have been trying to find out at least something about the man's fate by sending his photos to Telegram chats for missing persons.

Fazylov last contacted his family on March 30. An obituary published on the village library website said that Fazylov died on April 1 near the village of Novoandreyevka in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian army has not yet managed to capture the frontline village of Novoandreyevka, but last week the Ukrainian authorities announced the mandatory evacuation of its residents. The BBC, using open data, was able to find 173 more soldiers of the 80th Guards Tank Regiment who died in addition to Fazylov.

The man's obituary on the website of the Bashkir Malonakaryakovskaya rural library says that he had no children. In the section "Heroes of the SVO of the Mishkinsky District" on the library's website there are already 123 obituaries. Bashkortostan continues to hold first place among Russian regions in the number of people killed in the war with Ukraine - 6,117 people as of August 22.

(HUOM: tämä on interaktiivinen kartta eli siitä näkee tietyn Venäjän oblastin todennetut tappiot kun vie hiiren kursorin ko. alueen päälle. En ala kopioimaan numeroita jokaisen alueen osalta, mutta kuvasta näkee karkeasti sen miltä alueelta tappiot ovat eli tummempi väri on suurempi numero ja vaalea väri pienempi numero)
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Fazilov went to war from the village of Chebykovo in the Mishkinsky District of Bashkortostan. The population of Chebykovo is 385 people, of which 100 are men aged 18 to 60. The BBC knows of at least two more natives of the same village who died in the war. Nothing was written about them in the Chebykovo House of Culture public page on VKontakte. But they publish poems in support of the war in Ukraine and constantly report on how local residents weave camouflage nets for the military.

Main trends​


27% of the fatalities we identified were volunteers. By comparison, in 2023, their share was only 14% of the total number of casualties.

Former prisoners account for 14.5% of those killed in the war. The share of this category is gradually decreasing in the overall report - this is due to the fact that now investigators and lawyers are obliged to notify the accused and suspects about the possibility of avoiding criminal punishment if they sign a contract with the Russian army. Since in such cases people are not formally found guilty by the court, we classify them as volunteers, not convicts.

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About 11% of the dead were mobilized. However, the actual losses among them may be significantly higher, since obituaries do not always indicate the exact status of the deceased. Because of this, it is often impossible to determine whether a person went to the front voluntarily or was mobilized.

Russia also continues to suffer losses among officers - a total of 5,621 since the beginning of the invasion until August 22. Among them are 12 generals (including Interior Ministry Major General Andrei Golovatsky, who was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison).

On August 17, another general, deputy commander of the Sever group, Esedulla Abachev, was wounded in the war. According to the head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, Abachev was "in one of the border regions." The general was hospitalized, doctors assessed his condition as serious. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine reported that Abachev was wounded on Sunday, August 17. The GUR claimed that Ukrainian troops hit a Russian convoy on the Rylsk-Khomutovka highway in the Kursk region, and the general's arm and legs were amputated as a result of the wound. Abachev fought in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and in April 2022, President Vladimir Putin awarded him the title of "Hero of Russia."

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Four generals were killed in the first four months of the war. During that period, many commanders were close to the front lines, trying to speed up decision-making by their presence, compensating for logistical problems, operational planning shortcomings, and the lack of reliable secure communications.

By the summer of 2022, the Russian military had managed to partially establish a supply and communications system - generals and other high-ranking officers were transferred to rear areas, and over the next year we did not record any confirmed cases of deaths of senior officers.

In the summer of 2023, when the Ukrainians received long-range artillery systems from their Western allies, Russian generals began to die in pinpoint strikes. By the end of 2024, a new trend emerged — generals were killed as a result of assassination attempts — for example, Igor Kirillov, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological defense troops , was killed in Moscow . A scooter packed with explosives was remotely detonated at the entrance to the general’s house as he was walking out to his waiting car.

Overall assessment of Russian losses​


The real scale of losses is obviously much higher than those recorded in open sources. According to estimates of military experts we interviewed, an analysis of Russian cemeteries, memorials and obituaries reflects only 45% to 65% of the total number of victims.

One reason is that the bodies of many of the soldiers killed in recent months may still be on the battlefield. Removing them would risk further casualties, leaving them vulnerable to drone attacks.

Taking into account the above estimates, the death toll on the Russian side could range from 192,049 to 277,404.

The total number of losses increases significantly if we include in the calculation the military personnel who participated in the battles against Ukraine as part of the formations of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's "Republics".

Since December 2022, the DPR authorities have stopped publishing information about losses, and the LPR has never disclosed them at all. Having studied the available obituaries and reports of LPR/DPR fighters who have not been in touch for a long time, we came to the conclusion that by the end of September 2024, the number of people killed in these formations could have been between 21,000 and 23,500 people. Later, we began to count killed LPR/DPR fighters as foreigners in the Russian army.

Thus, based on the collected data, it can be assumed that the total number of deaths among pro-Russian forces is in the range of 213,049 to 300,904 military personnel.

We are continuing to collect information about service personnel who have died. If you would like to share information on this topic, please email [email protected].


How we count

In Russia, new names of the dead and photographs of funerals are published every day. Most often, the names are given by the heads of Russian regions or representatives of district administrations, local media and educational institutions where the dead previously studied, as well as relatives.
The BBC, Mediazona and a team of volunteers are studying this data and adding it to the list we have been keeping since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

We consider a publication in a Russian official source or media outlet, publications by relatives or posts in other sources, if they are accompanied by photographs of the burial, as confirmation of death.

We determined the branches of the armed forces based on reports of where the deceased served or on the insignia on the uniform. Mobilized personnel, volunteers, and prisoners are not separate branches of the armed forces, but we separate these losses into a separate category to compare them with the losses of professional (contract) units of the regular army.

* The publication "Mediazona" has been recognized as a "foreign agent" by the Russian authorities.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Venäjä iskee Ukrainan energiainfrastruktuuriin estääkseen valmistautumisen talveen", toteaa Ukrainan presidentti Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Hän puhui asiasta yhteisessä tiedotustilaisuudessa Kanadan pääministerin Mark Carney kanssa. Ukraina tarvitsee tukea kaasun hankintaan Venäjän iskujen vuoksi, jotka ovat kohdistuneet energiantuotantoon ja kaivostoimintaan.

Censor.NET-sivuston mukaan, viitaten Ukrinformiin, Zelenskyi kommentoi asiaa myös Norjan pääministerin Jonas Gahr Støren kanssa järjestetyssä yhteisessä lehdistötilaisuudessa. "Venäjä yrittää estää meidän valmistautumisemme talveen, iskemällä energiainfrastruktuuriimme. Tämä koskee paitsi sähkön- ja lämmöntuotantoa myös oman maakaasumme tuotantoa. Siksi me arvostamme suuresti apua, jonka Norja tarjoaa Ukrainalle kaasun hankintaan", Zelenskyi sanoi.

Muistutuksena, Norja aikoo vuoteen 2026 mennessä myöntää Ukrainalle 8,5 miljardia dollaria osana Nansenin tukiohjelmaa.

Lähde: https://censor.net/ru/n3570399
 
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