Kovia väitteitä Ukrainasta.
Venäläisiä kuolee kuin kärpäsiä suhteessa Ukrainalaisiin.
Venäläiset ovat onnettomia taistelijoita.
Suhde Ukrainalaisiin kaatuneisiin olisi väittämän mukaan 4,5/1
Venäjän johto ei välitä.
Näille väittämille ei ole vahvistusta. Ainakaan kuinka yleisesti se pitää paikkansa.
Anonymous expert analysis.
Bottom line, the Russians are terrible fighters. Russians are in charge, Russians are fighting, Russian are dying by the thousands.
Russia doesn’t seem to care, however. Russia does not seem to care that these are Russian soldiers and civilians. Russian generals do not care. The death rate exceeds that of World War II or the Great Patriotic War. Once again, Russia does not care about all their soldiers and civilians dying, except this time there is no victory. Only loss.
Please notice that no Generals have been fired. No Russian leaders have lost their jobs. No public executions. Russian lives are meaningless to Russian leaders.
I would find this deeply disturbing if I were a Russian.
</end editorial>
An update on earlier numbers, courtesy of the Chief Military Prosecutor of the AFU, Gen Matios:
Shocking statistics of non-battle casualties of Ukraine’s army – uatoday.tv
- AFU Losses in total: ~3,000 “KIA”;
- AFU Non-Combat Losses: 1,294;
- AFU Combat Losses: ~2,000 KIA;
- Russian Combat Losses: ~15,000 KIA;
This yields two kill ratios:
- Aggregate Kill Ratio: ~5:1 counting all AFU losses;
- Combat Kill Ratio: ~7.3:1 counting only AFU losses due to Enemy Action;
An unknown are the claimed ~800 Ukrainian MIAs, that if counted as KIAs, push the kill ratio numbers for the AFU down.
All in all this begs a lot of questions about the Russians’ ability to sustain losses from their shrinking gene pool – they have already heavily exploited minorities such as Chechens, Ossetians, and Buryats (ethnic Mongols) in the war.
The most notable comment by Gen Matios was that the single largest cause of AFU non-combat losses was lethal medical conditions, resulting from inadequate medical screening of personnel who were being called up during the conscription campaign, that covered men of up to 45 years of age (if I recall correctly). Attached graphic from April 2016 –
Two Years of War: Human cost of Russia’s undeclared war in Ukraine’s Donbas (Infographics) – read on – uatoday.tv
While the aggregated civilian and military casualties are smaller than most recent wars, they are similar in magnitude to the claimed numbers for the Kosovo war:
Wars and casualties of the 20th and 21st CenturyWhat is notable about the Donbass War is that more Russian troops were killed than the total number of civilians and AFU personnel killed by the Russians. That is statistically unusual, although the civilian vs. AFU deaths in the war follow a similar pattern to other conflicts.
A lot of Russia’s losses appear to reflect the past pattern of the Chechnya campaigns, and I recall numerous AFU personnel commenting on Russian tactics being “based on Chechnya”:
Foreign Military Studies Office Publications – Why the Russian Military Failed in Chechnya
There is a historical pattern along these lines:
10 Epic Russian Military Disasters – Listverse
Some might argue along the lines that the Russians cannot be a threat if they are so incompetent.
The opposite is true for two reasons:
- Russians are accustomed to taking heavy combat losses and the political blowback is much smaller than would be seen in any Western nation;
- The high combat loss rates deplete the aggregated experience pool in the Russian military, dumbing it down, and making it more likely to take foolish risks, and offer bad assessments to the nation’s political leaders;
The realities of (a) and (b) have been observed repeatedly in the Ukrainian war, and given the losses sustained in middle ranking and junior officers in the campaign, the propensity to blind optimism and the tendency to starting fights that sane people would not start will obviously continue for decades.
The punchline is that the culture of yes men surrounding the leader, the general insensitivity to combat losses, and the depletion of talent and expertise will make the Russians prone to starting fights they cannot win for the forseeable future.
Put differently, the Ukrainian war has made the Russians much more dangerous than they were before this war.
Earlier media disclosures indicated kill ratios of 4.5:1 up to 20:1 for Ukraine vs. Russia through 2014 and 2015. Last week Ukraine released UA/NGU loss numbers for May, and on the weekend, loss numbers for RF Army, Donbass “volunteers” and other Russian mercenary elements, for May. Most engagements involved Russian use of large calibre weapons against UA positions, and Russian recon/sabotage groups attempting to cross the demarcation line. The UA has been using only infantry weapons.
Kill ratio for May is 4.86:1 i.e. very close to mid 2014 kill ratios, favouring Ukraine. MoD in Kiev says Russian losses included ~30 RF Army Spetsnaz.
The Russians are clearly happy to sustain 5:1 and higher loss ratios indefinitely. Remarkable.
Elimination of militants: 180 Russian invaders killed in Donbas last month | EN.Censor.net04.06.16 15:31 – 180 Russian invaders killed in Donbas last month, – Defense Ministry About 180 pro-Russian militants and Russian soldiers were eliminated, 190 injured in the Donbas during May. View news.
At least 37 soldiers killed in May in Russia’s war against UkraineRussia’s ongoing war on Ukraine in the east of the country has taken the lives of 286 Ukrainian servicemen since the beginning of the year, with a further 350 being wounded. In May alone, at least 37 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in sporadic outbreaks of shelling and shooting all along the front line. It was the deadliest month for Ukraine’s troops since August 2014.
https://toinformistoinfluence.com/2016/06/12/published-donbass-kill-ratios-aggregated/
