Analysis: Russia has lost $ 15 billion so far
The current balance of Russian losses resulting from destroyed combat equipment, blocked exports and lost GDP amounts to approximately USD 15 billion, estimates the Polish Economic Institute in a report submitted to PAP.
According to PIE, at that time, shares in Russian companies for a total amount of USD 334 billion were withdrawn from the London Stock Exchange , and the Russian central bank lost access to over USD 345 billion in reserves.
PIE analysts estimate that the annual losses of the Russian economy at the end of 2022 will exceed USD 250 billion.
Possible 20% recession
As a result of the armed invasion in Ukraine, the Russian economy will shrink this year by at least USD 250 billion. We estimate that the sanctions and the economic crisis will trigger up to 20% of the total number of shares in Russia. recession. A similar recession in Belarus means a decrease in GDP by an additional USD 10 billion - emphasizes Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute, quoted in the report.
In just a few days, Russia lost investor confidence almost completely, and this isolation of the Russian market could persist for decades after the end of the war. World agencies give Russia junk ratings and more and more often point to the risk of this country going bankrupt in the coming weeks. At present, Ukraine's credibility is assessed higher than Russia's - added.
What will affect Russia the most?
According to the analysis of PIE experts, throughout 2022 Russia will lose export revenues worth 110-120 billion dollars . It is over 30 percent. its total export volume. In 2020, the Russian Federation exported 52 percent. of its products and services to Europe and a further 4.5 percent. to the countries of North America. Both continents were also the main recipients of energy resources and metals, which account for about 65 percent. Russian exports.
The report stated that the existing bans on oil and gas imports will reduce Russia's economy by $ 8 billion . The United States, Great Britain and Canada have banned the purchase of both raw materials - this move is already costing Russia $ 5.6 billion.
It was recalled that the European Union announced a plan to reduce Russian gas imports by 2/3, which will reduce Russia's revenues by an additional USD 2.4 billion.
According to PIE , the complete ban on the import of energy resources to the European Union countries will be the most severe for Russia. It will increase Russia's loss by almost $ 52 billion. With the current state of sanctions, Russia continues to derive significant benefits from the oil and gas trade. Extending the sanctions will deprive Putin's regime of revenues of over 50 percent. Russian exports.
Loss of trust in Russian capital
One of the consequences of the sanctions introduced is the loss of trust in Russian capital and cutting off business projects with representatives of companies from that country. The best proof of this is the listing of Russian companies on the London Stock Exchange, whose capital fell by $ 334 billion within a few days. Within two weeks, the value of shares of companies such as Novolipetsk Steel, Novatek and Phosagro fell by over 99%. - their last valuation is pennies, and trade in them is completely suspended - said Marcin Klucznik, analyst of the macroeconomics team at the Polish Economic Institute.
The European Central Bank indicated that Sperbank AG is already on the brink of bankruptcy. It is the European branch of Russia's largest commercial bank. The Moscow stock exchange was closed and that is why it did not experience similar declines. The total sale of Russian assets was announced, among others, by British Petroleum (USD 25 billion) and Norges Bank Investment Management (USD 2.8 billion) - added Marcin Klucznik.
Military losses
The PIE notes that Russia also suffered significant military losses. By March 10, 2022, the cost of documented losses of Russian military equipment amounted to approximately $ 2.6 billion . This is over a thousand units of heavy equipment, including 156 tanks, 635 infantry vehicles, 12 aircraft and 11 helicopters. This amount does not include infantry equipment, logistics and servicing costs, or soldier training.
It added that the Ukrainian authorities indicated that Russian losses could be even twice as high.
www.syriahr.com
) taistelijaa lähtee, niin Assad saa yksin tapella kapinallisia vastaan. Ehkä tuo 40 000 on kokenut ruplan kanssa saman suuntaisen inflaation, jossa 400 taistelijaa muuttui yhdessä yössä 40 000 taistelijaksi. Tuollainen kultturikrematorio mitä Vanja rakentaa, ja kutsuu armeijaksi, ei voi kuin epäonnistua
