Still, unless the munitions were substantial, this would not necessarily explain the clear presence of the large craters. There continues to be a discussion about whether Ukrainian forces may have utilized a stand-off strike capability that they were not previously known to have, including
a potential small stockpile of domestically-produced short-range ballistic missiles.
Regardless, it seems somewhat unlikely that the damage we're seeing was inflicted during some kind of special operations ground raid – the fact that it happened during the day makes that even less plausible. The craters, especially, are not what you would expect to see from explosive charges emplaced by teams on the ground.
If Saki Air Base was indeed subjected to some kind of air or missile strike, it would underscore a very clear decision by the Russian military to not take more proactive steps to shelter combat jets at this location. This is despite Russia's extensive knowledge of the threat posed
by attacks involving small drones after years of fighting in Syria,
especially with regards to its
Khmeimim Air Base outpost in that country, which led to the construction of a
row of more protected shelters there.
No matter what, the Russian Navy's
43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment appears to have suffered significant losses, which will have some impact on its ability to contribute to the ongoing fighting in Ukraine. This episode can only be highly embarrassing for Russia whether or not it was the result of an accident, as authorities in the country have insisted and now seems all but impossible, or enemy action that managed to penetrate past the
extensive defenses it has arrayed on the Peninsula.
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