I wanted to write everything for like a month, but in view of the rest, my hands did not reach. And today I have already read two texts on the possibility or impossibility of compressing Kherson from colleagues and "
Rybar " and "
Military Informant ".
These thoughts and beliefs were back in August, and even in July. Then the enemy in the person of the Ukrainian army did not conduct a counteroffensive in the Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih direction. He has been conducting the offensive since at least about May.
By mid-June, the enemy reached a peak in the
transfer of heavy equipment and personnel through from the Odessa region, including through the delivery of military transport aircraft to the
Shkolny airfield. And no,
contrary to official briefings, the planes were not shot down. The infrastructure of the airfield, including the terminal one, was temporarily put out of action, but for the time being the airfield accepted military flights.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to replenish their grouping, including foreign weapons. Several times during the summer, namely at the beginning of July, they undertook assault actions to occupy the front-line settlements, the success was different and, as a result, variable. The
probing of
the defense went along the entire front. Further, the enemy proceeded to
disable our military infrastructure, warehouses and inflict harassing rocket and artillery fire, including to demonstrate their presence to civilians. Which, of course, acted differently on two different layers - from panic to enthusiasm.
Now, having carried out two successful operations to break through our fronts in the Kherson and Kharkov regions, having completely occupied the latter, I believe that the enemy will make another attempt to create a
bridgehead by winter - in the
Zaporozhye region in the Gulyaipol region.
After the breakthrough, if it succeeds, of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to stretch the occupied section first in depth, and then in breadth, which they did not quite succeed in doing in the Kherson region in the Sukhoi Stavka region, but it turned out in the Kharkiv region in the direction of Volkhov Yar.
Also, the enemy,
for some reason miraculous for them, unlike us, does not always try to rest against our fortified areas and does not hesitate to bypass them, and
not to lose personnel in senseless frontal attacks.
The main task for the Armed Forces of Ukraine now is to completely disrupt the supply of our group of troops on the right bank of the Dnieper, which will be equal to the withdrawal of the contingent from there and the onset of battles for Kherson. And if there is an offensive in this area, then from the side of the Kakhovka reservoir, the Novovorontsovka and Osokurovka regions.
Sooner or later, and according to my feelings, before the spring of 2023, this will certainly happen.
The recent offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region showed and proved once again that at the moment, and unfortunately, this prospect is hardly changeable, we will not have the possibility of offensive operations either on Nikolaev or on Odessa, counting on keeping Kherson in such a decline, in the best case, in my humble non-professional opinion, which has also been repeatedly stated in tête-à-tête conversations that our entire front will crumble in the fall, now and now, I think that the capture of these cities and the implementation of offensive operations is impossible.