What forces can Belarus now have at its disposal? What is a Russian-Belarusian grouping? Will Lukashenka join the war? How is Ukraine prepared for such an eventuality?
Belarus has about 60,000 soldiers in permanent service. We receive unofficial information about the silent mobilization, mainly of people from rural areas. Reservists are also to receive "invitations" to return to service. Belarus has about 300,000 reservists
Currently, the armored forces of Belarus operate on versions of the T-72B tank, including Belarusian upgrades and a small number of Russian T-72B3 and T-80B. Belarusians also have a T-72A in reserve. Currently, more than 90 Belarusian T-72As have been sighted in Russia.
The Belarusian air force has Soviet and Russian machines at its disposal. These are, for example, the Mig-29BM, Su-30SM, Yak-130 or SU-25, which have recently been adapted to operate missiles carrying nuclear warheads. There are no heads and so far it does not seem that they will be
Currently, the Belarusian army now has "comrades" in the form of Russians. They join the formed BY-RUS grouping. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense claims that the number of Russian soldiers will not exceed 9,000. The Belarusian Ministry of National Defense also informs that 170 tanks will arrive with the soldiers.
Of course, the grouping is presented as defensive, designed to protect Belarus from Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania. The secretary of state BY the security council said that there was information about the attack on Ukraine from Belarus, but "this is what Poles especially would like to see"
Of course, it was used in a negative context because, according to the Belarusian authorities, it is Poles and Ukrainians who are the threat, not Belarus. Belarus increased the number of border troops due to the threat posed by Ukraine. They explain this by Ukrainian espionage activity
At the moment, we do not observe the formation of shock troops, but this may change smoothly. In my opinion, if it was decided to attack again from the north, it could be the Rivne direction to cut off the western aid or the Kovel-Sarny-Kyiv route
Will Lukashenka continue to maneuver or will he decide to join the war? First, Lukashenka has been in this war since February 24, when he made his territory available to Russia for an attack. Secondly, Lukashenka is extremely dependent on Russia.
It was the Russians who helped Lukashenka during the protests (for example the Rosguardia), the Russians are helping Belarus financially, there is already a union state of the Union of Belarus. Note that Lukashenka is at Putin's call. How many times has he been with Putin since February?
Lukashenka realizes that the replacement of the president in Belarus will not be difficult at all. The infiltration of Belarusian society by the Russian KGB is enormous. I suspect that the Belarusian KGB has more to do with Russia than with Belarus.
Russia has shown that it does not want to end this war by announcing partial mobilization after the referenda, on the other hand, the West has invested so much in Ukraine that it cannot allow peace on Russian terms. Here, one side will have to tip the scales
The first "Operation Kyiv" was terribly prepared. Stretched logistics, no air control. They wanted to enter as soon as possible, change the "regime" and return to a quiet life. Putin may now think that the war cannot be ended without a change of government in Ukraine
In my opinion, preparations for "Operation Kyiv 2" started in April. It should be noted that the Ukrainian counter-strike in the direction of Kharkiv forced Russia to conduct referendums faster. The Russian retreat also looked panicky at times.
Putin cannot afford to lose the South and the East. Pulling back some of the Ukrainian troops to another section may cause the mobilized forces to be thrown to the east for a new offensive in that region.
The new commander in the "military operation zone" Surovkin is famous for his bestiality. He is an unscrupulous man. If you are interested in this character, I recommend thread u
@MarekKozubel . The Russians in the joint branch with BY will make sure that no one "writes the number".
Ukrainians are aware of the threat from the north. The trenches were created, roads were mined, the bridge near the border with Belarus was blown up. For geographical reasons, it will also be difficult to cross this area, but will Russians who do not respect their soldiers respect Belarusians?
The key to answering the question: How will Ukraine deal with a possible attack are the size of the attacking troops, the supply of Western equipment to Ukraine, the morale of the attacking troops and intelligence support by Western countries.
May there be no another attack from the north, but if it is launched, I believe that Ukraine will be well prepared. It will be a big mistake of Lukashenka and Putin. Defeat in this direction will prove to be Russia's final defeat.