Kiitos tästä. Onhan se yksi datapiste, vaikka nyt sitten jää kysyttäväksi, että mikä sitten puolestaan tuon Volya Median tiedonlähde on. Ja kuka/mikä Volya Media ylipäänsä on. Tuossa tweetissä annetaan viittaus vain toiseen Twitter-tiliin, jolla on 675 seuraajaa.Tällä foorumilla on tuumailtu tappioiden määriä sodan alusta alkaen, tässä yhden lähteen tuoreet numerot. Lainaan alkuperäisestä lähteestä Venäjän joukkoja koskevan lauseen:
Losses of all pro-Russian formations from the beginning of the war to October 9, 2022 were 60,580 to 66,487 men killed, captured, missing, and dead from wounds, and 112,173 to 124,806 men wounded.
Meidän tuntema islantilainen datamies käyttää tämän lähteen numeroita omissa kuvaajissaan:
Laitan viitatun ketjun tekstin tähän kokonaisuudessaan: LÄHDE
From September 19 to October 9, the losses of all pro-Russian formations in killed, captured and missing were 5,120 to 5,250 people, in wounded - 10,275 to 10,443.
During the same period, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were 830-870 in killed, captured and missing, and 2,170-2,300 in wounded.
We explain why there is such a gap in losses between the Russian Federation and the AFU in an article on “Volya”
https://t.me/volyamedia/433 ---> https://telegra.ph/Spisok-myasnika-...ennye-poteri-19-sentyabrya--4-oktyabrya-10-06
After the defeat near Kharkiv and the beginning of mobilization in the Russian Federation, it became much more difficult to collect data on the losses, as the traditional reports are being published less often.
There is still no complete data on Russian losses in the Kharkiv and northern Luhansk regions. There is still no complete data on losses among the recently mobilized, because they are scattered among different units, and the newcomers aren’t always included in the lists.
In the last two weeks there have been at least two cases in which newly arrived mobilized men have been hit by artillery fire and suffered heavy casualties, and the dead and wounded were not mentioned in the internal reports because they were not included in the lists after their arrival. Such a difference in losses is due to the "catch-up" data after the defeats of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) at Balakliya, Izyum, Kupyansk, and other places.
The combat was already over, and the killed, missing, and wounded had just been counted. The collapse of the front line had severe consequences in terms of losses for the RAF.
The second reason is that the RAF tried to stop the Ukrainian offensive by “plugging the holes”. In means that any units that come to hand were thrown into breakthrough areas or into any into gaps on the contact line, regardless of their degree of readiness, equipment.
This led to heavy losses in the Svativsk direction and especially in the Liman-Zarichne-Torske-Kremenna area. The units were sent there without organizing normal communication between them, with varied equipment and combat capabilities.
Therefore, the LNR and DNR’s militia and the newly mobilized lost a lot of people there. The PMCs and Airborne Troops, who found themselves in an unfamiliar situation where they were outflanked and could not rely on neighboring units, lost many people, too.
The reason is poorly organized and chaotic actions of the commanders in this direction, including generals Lapin and Zhidko.
The third reason for the difference in Ukraine’s and Russia’s losses is the successful work of the AFU artillery and MLRS, which got many new targets in the form of fresh Russian units.
Over the past two weeks, we know of several instances when Ukrainian artillery fired at Russian infantry convoys (!!!) heading along roads or fields to new positions.
“Along with the mobilized men came officers from the rear who had never been to war. Сombat training dorks. They were ordered to redeploy, but they were not given transportation. They saluted, lined up the men in marching columns and pissed off... well, at least they didn't sing songs”.
“You can see them from all sides, you can see them from the UAVs, but they are toilers of the home front, they don't care..., so they get covered at once," says a Russian officer in the Severodonetsk-Kreminna area.
Those who came under such fire include mobilized people from the city of Borzya in Trans-Baikal Territory, the Baikal battalion from Buryatia and the motorized rifle units manned by mobilized men.
The fourth reason for the high losses on the Russian side is the ongoing attempts to penetrate the AFU defenses near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Assaults and combat reconnaissance in these areas take place on a daily basis.
Between 10 and 30 people are killed in these areas every day, and twice as many - during assaults. For the AFU, the manpower losses are probably even more sensitive than for the RAF, because the Ukrainian side spent several months preparing each unit and working to bring them together. The loss of experienced fighters and officers reduces the combat effectiveness, speed, and organization of the entire group.
The Ukrainian military often fights in small groups of 200-300 fighters, and the loss of 30-50 fighters may require withdrawal to the rear. This causes the AFU to act more slowly and cautiously. The accumulation of experience in offensive operations has been successful.
Perhaps, in a month or a month and a half, the AFU will be able to act in larger formations with fewer losses, if, of course, the capacity of artillery support is increased (recall that in the beginning of October the US started a Lend-Lease program).
Losses of all pro-Russian formations from the beginning of the war to October 9, 2022 were 60,580 to 66,487 men killed, captured, missing, and dead from wounds, and 112,173 to 124,806 men wounded.
Losses of all pro-Ukrainian formations from the beginning of the war to October 9 were 35,366 to 37,966 killed, captured, and missing, and 55,265 to 60,668 wounded.
MUOKKAUS: huvittava muuten huomata, että näistä oli täällä juttua viime perjantaina ja pyörittelin numeroita, kun kokeilin arvioida Venäjän puolella taistelevien joukkojen mahdollisia kokonaistappioita. Sen tuumailun perusteella arvasin nämä: LINKKI VIESTIIN
RF Armed Forces: irretrievable losses 66 126
PMC: dead 20 415
National Guard: dead and missing 5 036
DPR: dead and wounded 17 504
LPR: dead and wounded 12 252
Näiden summa = 121 333
Osuu tuohon Volya Median tarjoamaan vaihteluväliin (joka on kieltämättä suuri). En silti ottaisi tätä liian vakavasti, tuossa on lainattu osa numeroista eri lähteistä ja tehty monia oletuksia. Muutenkaan tuossaista tarkkaa numeroa on tuskin kenelläkään, Venäjä mukaanluettuna.
Jos silti kokoluokka olisi tosiaan tuo mistä Volya Media kirjoittaa eli 110 000 - 125 000 kaikkinensa niin onhan tuo ihan järkyttävä määrä!
Siis olisi hauska tietää, miten tuo Twitter-tili tietää näitä lukuja yhden sotilaan tarkkuudella, kun Venäjä virallisesti on julkistanut ihan eri tason lukuja (jotka hyvin suurella todennäköisyydellä ovat täysin alakanttiin) ja Ukrainan päivittäin julkistamat luvut Venäjän tappioista ovat yleensä sen tyylisiä, että "nämä nyt ovat varmaan sadan tarkkuudella oikein". Eli onko tällä Twitter-tilillä pääsy Venäjän valtion "oikeisiin" lukuihin ja jos on, niin miten?