11.11.2024, 02:04 updated 11:30
9K3 min.
Rails are being unloaded from money
It is proposed to sequester the investment program of JSC Russian Railways until 2030
JSC Russian Railways may reduce its long-term investment program by more than a third until 2030. In particular, this concerns financial support for the development of the Eastern Polygon, the costs of which are proposed to be reduced from one and a half to seven times, which, in turn, may entail adjustments to plans for the third stage of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway development. The possibility of suspending the development of the northwestern and southern directions, leaving unchanged only investments in the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed highway and the purchase of the fleet, as well as the relocation of the monopoly to Moscow-City, is also being discussed.
Kommersant has reviewed a comparative analysis of proposals by Russian Railways and the Ministry of Economy to adjust the long-term investment program of Russian Railways until 2030. As of August, the total investment program for 2025–2030 was estimated at 12.41 trillion rubles. Now, according to Russian Railways, investments should be cut by 36%, to 7.93 trillion rubles. The Ministry of Economy proposes to sequester another 2.2 trillion rubles, reducing the investment program to 5.7 trillion rubles.
It is noteworthy that in the new version of the investment program, even the Eastern Polygon, which in recent years has been the focus of all the monopoly’s investments, was not spared from sequestration.
Investments in its development, which were estimated at 3.84 trillion rubles in August, are proposed by Russian Railways to be reduced by 1.55 trillion rubles, to 2.29 trillion rubles, and the Ministry of Economy to be reduced by 6.7 times, to 558.7 billion rubles. This year, about 360 billion rubles should be invested in the development of the Eastern Polygon, and approximately the same figure was expected in 2025. Given the limits of the Ministry of Economy, it would be possible to invest in BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway in less than two years at the current pace. The second stage of BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway development is now nominally being completed (work will continue in 2025) with the achievement of 180 million tons of carrying capacity. The third stage, calculated until 2032, according to the project passport, costs 3.74 trillion rubles, that is, it is unlikely to be fully implemented with the investments indicated by JSC Russian Railways, and it is definitely not feasible within the limits of the Ministry of Economy.
The development of approaches to the ports of the North-West may be practically curtailed. Russian Railways and the Ministry of Economy propose to reduce investments in completing current activities from 882.5 to 105.9 billion rubles, and in bringing them up to target indicators - from 262.7 to 9.2 billion rubles. Approximately the same fate will befall approaches to the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin, investments in which are proposed to be reduced from 211 to 151.2 billion rubles and from 511.6 to 13.3 billion rubles, respectively.
Investments in the development of the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed highway remain unchanged, remaining at the level of 264.7 billion rubles. And investments in the modernization and purchase of rolling stock will decrease only slightly - from 1.87 to 1.85 trillion rubles.
Oleg Belozerov , head of Russian Railways, in an interview with RIA Novosti in December 2023:
“We are currently, despite all the impressive results, not fully satisfying demand.”
One of Kommersant’s sources who has seen the document draws attention to the clause on 48.8 billion rubles of investment in “centralized placement of Russian Railways employees,” that is, in moving to the Moscow Towers skyscraper in Moscow City, which the company bought (
see Kommersant of October 24 ). Neither Russian Railways nor the Ministry of Economy propose cutting these expenses. Kommersant’s sources both within the monopoly and outside of it consider the move to be questionable both in terms of the company’s availability of office space in the center of Moscow and the lack of secure control and communications centers in Moscow City. Previously, the monopoly itself considered the refusal to buy an office as a tool for reducing tariff indexation (
see Kommersant of September 24 ). As a result, Russian Railways’ tariffs for freight transportation will be indexed by 13.8% from December 1 (
see Kommersant of November 8 ).
Russian Railways did not provide any comments, and the Ministry of Economy did not respond to Kommersant’s request.
Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, says that in 2024, Russian Railways lost a significant portion of its freight base to road transport. Until 2022, the expert says, many freights were returned due to differentiated tariffs and improved service quality. But now the focus of Russian Railways has shifted: the monopoly is becoming primarily an infrastructure company, and has begun to lag far behind in transportation activities, the expert says. In addition, Mr. Burmistrov notes, Russian Railways is losing the fight for personnel. Taking into account these factors, as well as the fact that the freight base for coal exports, especially after 2030, is possibly overestimated due to the rapid development of renewable energy in China, it seems that the investment program can be revised, including in terms of the Eastern Polygon, he believes. As the expert notes, the example of the private Pacific Railway (from the Elginsky coal deposit in Yakutia to the Port Elga terminal in Khabarovsk Krai) shows that there are more efficient alternatives to the Russian Railways network. Mikhail Burmistrov considers the preservation of investments in the purchase of rolling stock to be a plus, although, in his opinion, given the growth in the cost of locomotives, the costs should have increased.
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