Erittäin hyvä kirjoitus Matveevilta. Kuvamateriaalia Avdiivkasta todella niukasti viimeiseltä viikolta, tänään joku twiitti että kovat taistelut mutta mitä muuta? Olisiko kuitenkin hiljaisuudessa vetäydytty. Jossain spekuloitiin myös että Zenitistä olisi tunneleita pakoreittinä.. tiedä häntä. Kuulostaisi loogisemmalta. Ja aikaisempi pätkä 3rd Azov hyökkäysprikaatin videosta oli vain yksittäinen eikä sen jälkeen muuta.
Ukraine leaves Avdeevka?
This is indicated primarily by the absence of intense battles. In just four days, the Russian military was able to move south almost a kilometer and cut the main supply line. This breakthrough puts Ukrainian Armed Forces units in urban areas on the brink of encirclement. There are also advances around the Zenit fortified area.Are there any footage of heavy urban battles, like in Bakhmut? Maybe traces of defeated units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Or leftover equipment? Maybe there is a video of significant masses of infantry and equipment of Putin’s units that are bursting into the city with overwhelming superiority? There are not even shots of massive carpet bombing from all guns and planes. Look at Krynki - everything was ironed there for many days in a row. But Ukrainian soldiers are still holding out.
All breakthroughs in Avdeevka have now been carried out by small infantry units. There is nothing even close to the efforts in Krynki, and especially in Bakhmut. But the pace of advance is there. I think the 110th brigade has finally been withdrawn and the urban part of Avdeevka (shaded in blue) is being prepared for surrender. From a military point of view, this is a competent and logical decision. The 3rd brigade sent to Avdeevka is most likely covering the withdrawal of troops (the battle in the video) and is going to occupy new positions.
Presumably, the first such line will run from Koksokhim to Severny. The second is from Berdychi to Pervomaisky. We should expect counterattacks, but not from inside the encirclement, but from outside. For example, from the side of Keramik or Krasnogorovka and Nevelskoye. Although, in my opinion, it would be much more effective to prepare forces for a strike somewhere in the south. There you can achieve much more decisive success, but here everything will sooner or later come down to the Donetsk agglomeration.
The capture of the urban part of Avdeevka will not give the Russian army any special advantage in this sector of the front. Just as it was not there after the capture of Bakhmut or Marinka. This is all fodder for propaganda. The only thing that will change is that Russian troops will be able to free up some forces and transfer them somewhere else. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces will do exactly the same thing.