Mark Hertling kirjoitti näin omassa twitter-viestissään:
During the Desert Storm ground war of 1991, we observed the deplorable conditions & indiscipline of front line Iraqi troops as we rolled past. Compared to Russian criminal “forces,” Saddam’s soldiers were Spartans.
Telenko sitten vastaa tähän viestiin ketjullaan:
The comparison General Hertling is making here is actually mind blowingly worse than he knows.
2022 Russian Army versus 1980's Iraqi Army Artillery logistics thread
The highest single Russian artillery shell in a day count Ukraine has provided to date is 65,000 shells in May 2022 as Siervodonesk & Lysychansk were over run. That sounds like a large number.
It isn't.
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My research quest for the Soviet/Russian Cold War ammunition budget involved researching the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980's since Iraq used Soviet guns & used oil money to buy ammo.
Documents relating to Iraqi artillery use during Iran's Karbala-5 offensive were mind blowing
Both of Cordesman's previous passages concentrated on failed Iraqi 1986 Al-Faw Peninsula counter offensive.
Iraqi army's defense of Basra from Iran's Karbala-5 offensive during 9 January to 27 February 1987 matched & exceeded those numbers.
The figure with yellow highlighting is from FMFRP 3-203 Lessons Learned: Iran–Iraq War Volume 1 (
http://fas.org/man/dod-101/ops/war/docs/3203/…) & is surpringing from the number of pure WW2 Russian 122mm & 152 mm tubes & ammo the USMC identified in the Iraqi Army 1990 inventory.
1st Observation - There are no Russian reserves of WW2 to 1950's era 122mm & 152mm artillery tubes & ammo. They sold those to Iraq in the 1980's.
2nd Observation: The 2022 Russian Army isn't as logistically a modern army as Iraq was in the 1980's.
Let's run some numbers: The Russians showed up in Ukraine with 2,433 guns split 245x122mm, 2,028x152mm, & 160x203 mm & have since added more 152mm, 203mm guns plus 240 mm mortars while losing well over 1,000(+) tubes. (nämä numerot otettu Military Balance julkaisusta)
Iran's Karbala-5 offensive ran from 9 January to 27 February 1987.
That is 49 bloody days.
Just one of those 49 days saw Iraq shoot 1 million artillery shells...and the overwhelming majority of those shells were Soviet caliber.
Given Iraq had 4,500 Guns & rocket launchers, ~90% Soviet for the 1986 al-Faw & 1987 Basra battles
Assuming 600 rounds per barrel on that 1 million round day, yields 1,666 guns shooting.
Assuming 400 rounds per barrel on that 1 million round day, yields 2,500 guns shooting.
In comparison, assuming all 2,433 Russian guns firing and a peak daily fire rate of 65,000 shells in May 2022 -- before
@HimarsoClock came to take all of Russia's 'logistical lunch money' -- is about 27 shells per gun per day.
Even assuming Russia only used 1,000 guns to fire those 65K shells, that is still only 65 shells per gun per day.
Iraq's trucks were delivering 8-to-10 times that shell count PER GUN for far more guns.
Given:
The standard Russian 122 mm howitzer shell weight is 21.8 kg (47.96 lb)
The standard OF45 high-explosive 152mm shell weight is 43.56 kilograms (95.83)
And a ratio of two 122mm to one 152 mm in Iraqi artillery shooting.
The average shell weight is 63.92 lbs
Using 64lbs for ease of calculation, 64lbs times 1 million shells and divided by 2,000 lbs for a short ton yields 32,000 tons of artillery munitions for one day in that 49 day battle for Basra.
The above Iraqi calculation leaves out the packaging, cushioning and dunnage associated with Soviet/Russian Army artillery packaging. So, how was the 1980's Iraqi Army delivering 1.45 orders of magnitude shells in the 1980's than Russia in 2022 Ukraine?
Iraq used straps to palletize those Russian ammunition boxes & moved 'em w/forklifts.
Modern Armies use mechanized logistics & both the Soviet Union's & Russia's Army have never been modern.
They've lacked the trucks & mechanized logistics to move to the Rhine since 1955*
*1955's when US lend lease trucks had died.
Some people on twitter are blotivating that I'm 'to optimistic' about Ukraine and shouldn't be listened too as a result.
I'm optimistic on Ukraine because I know logistics wins wars.
I'm especially optimistic about Ukraine because I know the Russians in 2022 lack the logistical chops to throw 1/10th the artillery shells Iraq did in 1986 & 1987 & can't do even that now, because HIMARS.
And look what happened to the Iraqis Army in 1991 & 2003.
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Kun Venäjä on nyt taas vaihteeksi ajautumassa alennustilaan ja tuhonnut sotakoneistonsakin lähes täydellisesti niin länsimaiden pitää huolehtia sodan loputtua siitä että Venäjä ei siitä ikinä nouse. Nuo idiootit eivät opi yhtään mitään jos sitä oppia ei pampulla päähän hakkaa.
