Micek kirjoittanut varsin yksityiskohtaisesti ja mielenkiintoisesti itärintamalta Svatovo-Bakhmut-Andriivka väliltä. Käänsin tähän kokonaisuudessaan.
Pääpoiminnat. UA tuonut vahvistuksia Svatovon alueelle, kenties odottaa sään parantamista.
Bakhmutin eteläpuolella (Andriivka) tilanne on hyvin vaikea, vasta nyt vaikuttaa siltä
että AU olisi tuomassa vahvistuksia alueelle.
Matchmaking, no major changes in the front line. AU forces have given up direct attacks on the Svatov region and are trying their luck in the Kreminna region and north-west of Svatov. However, the progress of the AU forces is negligible and mainly in the vicinity of Kreminna itself. 1/
There is more and more information that indicates the appearance of additional AU forces in the region. In the first half of December frosts are forecast here (even at nights do -10) , which will end the problem of mud and allow heavy forces to operate effectively. Perhaps UA is getting ready for it. 2/
The RUS are also preparing for winter and a possible local AU offensive by building defense lines east of the Krasna River and around Svatowo - the yellow color is more or less a fortification construction zone.
There are numerous battles at the front, but no major ground gains from the AU. 3/
AU forces will probably attack here. The open question is what will be the purpose of this? There are several options. The first assumes reaching the Krasna River with the capture of Swatów and Kreminna, and then the transition to defense and the withdrawal of most of the forces from this region to another place. 4/
The second scenario assumes the capture of Swatów and its surroundings, and then an attempt to advance to Biłołutsk, Starobielsk and New Astrakhan, so as to control all areas west of the Aidar River, from the region of New Astrakhan to the border with Russia. It would be a big success for AU. 5/
The second scenario may be part of a larger offensive aimed at capturing Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. However, this would have to coincide with an attack from the Berestove region on Hirs'ke and Zolote. In this way, the AU forces would practically surround Severodonetsk. 6/
We would be dealing with classic pincers performed by AU forces. Of course, this would involve the use of numerous forces here and would rather not allow for a larger offensive, e.g. in Zaporozhye. Will that happen? I do not know. 7/
In the Lisichansk region itself, there are no major changes in the course of the front line. AU forces are on the complete defensive. The RUS have been attacking once in the direction of Spirne, but so far they have not achieved any success. 8/
Bakhmut - the situation to the north-east and east of the city is stable. All RUS attacks were broken, mainly by UA artillery. The Russians suffered heavy losses here (there are videos and photos). From this region, the city is not in danger. 9/
South of Bakhmut, the Rus troops (a very large force, mostly infantry) made progress. AU forces hold Opulent. To the south, however, the RUS troops reached the railway line, where bloody fighting continues. RUS seized the village of Ozarianivka. Fighting continues for the village of Kurdyumivka. 10/
AU's situation is very difficult. The AU troops are to record very high losses when it comes to the wounded and the dead. Typical infantry battle. However, AU troops maintain defenses along the railway line, contrary to the claims of some pro-Russian sources. The next 2-3 days will be crucial.11/
Yesterday, there was also no sign of AU reserves being sent to the region. Today, it seems that these reserves have started and within hours, maximum 1-2 days, they will enter the fight. The situation for the AU is very difficult, but there is no threat to Bakhmut. 12/
The AU has been building additional field defense lines east of the Opytne-Ozarianivka village line (more or less blue lines) for a long time. RUS successes for the entire front are of little importance here. The situation will be bad if Klishchiivka fails, which is not expected. 13/
We just have to wait for the situation to develop. If the forecasts are confirmed and UA moves to Svatowo, the local successes of RUS near Bakhmut will be irrelevant. Moreover, they may have to withdraw part of their forces in order to save the front in the north.