Interview | Kirill Budanov: Our units will enter the Crimea with weapons in their hands
26.12.2022, 07:00
Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kirill Budanov on the liberation of Crimea, Arestovich, missile strikes and a map of "dismembered" Russia
LIGA.net waited six months for a conversation with the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense,
Kirill Budanov . Although during this time Budanov distributed dozens of interviews and comments. A few hours before the meeting, his interview was also published for the New York Times, where he
clarified a number of issues that were being prepared by our editors.
Five minutes before the start of the conversation, Budanov warned that he would not comment on the statements of other military men, in particular, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Valery Zaluzhny , about a
possible attack on Kiev in the winter . Also, the press service of Budanov "under wartime conditions" removed our questions about the
"cotton" in Engels and in general on the territory of Russia, the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and the current operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What are the forecasts of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate for the liberation of Crimea based on, how many massive missile strikes is Russia capable of, and whether
Aleksey Arestovich really served in intelligence, - in an interview with Budanov for
LIGA.net .
You can also watch the video version at the end of this text.
DISPLATED RUSSIA AND BORDERS-1991
- What to expect this winter in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war?
– A fundamental change in the situation in the near future is not expected. There are a number of objective reasons for this. Russia is now at an impasse, and the only place where it is still "trying to try" to attack is
Bakhmut . They have not had much success in this direction. Since August, [the Russians] have been constantly saying that Bakhmut is almost captured. As you can see, it's already the end of December.
The only place where they also try to concentrate their forces is just north of Bakhmut and in the direction of Zaporozhye.
But we do not see a real opportunity to achieve something. The Russians have already made several attempts at small local offensives. All of them were discovered in advance and ended in nothing for them.
"Therefore, we do not expect a radical change in the situation on the part of the Russian Federation now. I will not comment on our actions."
- Even the mobilized , undergoing combat coordination, will not change this?
“They can't really change anything.
-
Before February 24, you were almost the only one in the military-political leadership of the country who openly predicted a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now you are almost the only one who talks about Crimea already in the summer. What are your predictions based on?
Your question is rather strange for me. It is absolutely normal that the information you hear from me is different from the information you may hear from any other person. I am the head of military intelligence and the chairman of the [presidential] intelligence committee. All information comes to me. I rely on the data and analytics that we have. And who can know the answers to global questions, except for intelligence?
- In order to reach the administrative borders of 1991 (Budanov called this the first stage in the end of the war. - Ed. ), We need weapons, a lot of weapons. At the same time, it looks like the Western partners are giving us weapons only for defense. Don't you have that impression?
– There is fruitful cooperation with our Western partners, we talk a lot about specific nomenclatures and types of weapons that we need. All of this is in the process of resolution.
We expect that in addition to the significant volumes that have already been provided to us, the Western world will intensify the supply of weapons that will help accelerate the defeat of the Russian Federation.
- We saw a map of "dismembered" Russia in your office. On it, the Kursk, Belgorod regions and Kuban are circled with a black marker as part of Ukraine. Is this the next stage after reaching the borders of 1991?
Everyone sees what they want to see.
Maybe it's just a broad marker. Or maybe not.
Map of dismembered Russia in Budanov's office (screenshot)
- In the American media and publications of Western analysts, warnings about the military liberation of Crimea have become noticeably more frequent recently . For some reason, they consider this an exclusively diplomatic story. For them, the borders on February 23 (possibly with the liberation of Donbass) are the limit. And Crimea is a red rag. How can you respond to these reservations?
- I'm not interested in listening to the opinions of people who do not reflect the position of the Ukrainian people. I have the opposite opinion.
We will take back all the lost territories.
Ukraine is a country recognized within the 1991 borders. Those who do not agree with this do not agree with the world order that has existed since the end of World War II and with the new foundations of the UN.
"Crimea will be returned in a combined way: both by force and diplomacy. But nothing will happen without force. Our units will go there with weapons in their hands."
– Does the Main Intelligence Directorate have agents inside Russia, and did their number increase with the start of the big war?
- Weird question. We get money for this. Or where do we get our information from? From telegram channels?
- Did this work become more active with the beginning of the great war? Maybe there is a part of the Russians who do not agree with the war - and they are cooperating?
- Exactly. At completely different levels, this number of people has increased, and with it our access to information at various levels: from socio-political to purely military issues. This is also your answer to the question why what I say is sometimes different from what other people say.
Model of the flooded "Moscow" on Budanov's table (photo - LIGA.net)
- And how many traitors inside the GUR have been discovered since February 24?
“We haven't found any yet.
Didn't find it or didn't look for it?
- As it is, they did not look for it. Our internal security is constantly working. Examples of improper attitude to, let's say, the preservation of state secrets - there are all sorts of cases. But in most cases, this is an official negligence, when someone can send some information via messenger. And it becomes the property of the enemy intercepting this signal. Such cases do happen, unfortunately.
This is a general problem of all our authorities.
"ROCKETS ENOUGH FOR TWO-THREE TIMES"
- How much longer does Russia have the ability to deliver massive regular missile strikes on Ukraine and our infrastructure?
- The remaining number of missiles - if we take their calculations purely mathematically - will be enough with their intensity in a salvo on average 70-75 missiles for two or three times. And in principle they will end at all.
If you look at the intensity of Russia's missile attacks, they carried out these attacks against critical infrastructure at first once a week. Then - every 10 days. Then - once every two weeks. Now even longer.
"This period of time is due solely to one problem: the fleeting reduction of the Russian missile arsenal. Their industry
is not able to cover the amount that they spend. For all their attempts, this is unrealistic."
See also:
Reznikov published an assessment of the remains of the Russian missile arsenal
– Were they able to reconfigure the production of new missiles? Tsaplienko, citing "scouts", writes that Russia allegedly plans to increase the annual output, for example, X-101 nine times, to 467 (from 56 at the moment).
- Ask Mr. Tsaplienko where he got these figures from. I remember that they dream of starting to produce 20 sea-launched Kalibr missiles a month. Calculate how much you need to work to ensure a single salvo. Yes, the X-101, and the X-555, and the Caliber are in the salvo. But here are the statistics for you - consider. "Iskanders" are almost never produced.
- Russian dictator Putin at the collegium of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation last week announced plans to develop the nuclear triad and Sarmat missiles ...
- You don't have to continue. For two years now he has been announcing: "Sarmat", all in radioactive ashes. Just analyze the last two years. Every year they end up with the Sarmat almost ready, going through the last preparations for putting it on combat duty.
- And why do Russians cherish "Daggers" so much?
- So there were 47 of them by the beginning of the war, as far as I remember. During this time, they were able to make a few, as long as there were spare parts. This is not serious. You can scare the world with the fact that you have a "Dagger". But when you start to really use them - what's next? You can land 47 hits. For understanding, more than 900 Iskanders were used. What is 47?
- So for them "Daggers" is a technologically unrealistic story?
– It is almost impossible to produce them now. They cannot get many components due to sanctions. They do parallel imports, but that makes it very difficult and takes longer to deliver those parts.
And some of them, in spite of everything, can not get it.
"TECHNICAL HUNGER STARTED IN RUSSIA"
- In addition to missiles, what else does Russia lack for an intense war? Is it possible for them to have technical hunger because of the sanctions?
“And he already is. The Russian army faces almost identical problems that we face. Only we are from March, and they are from about the beginning of autumn. Just as we have a problem with shells for artillery, which we are solving thanks to our partners, this is how it began for them. Just as we started having problems with high-explosive fragmentation shells for tanks, so did they. The same applies to missiles for MLRS.
“Now the Russians are also looking around the world where to buy 122 and 152 mm shells, tank high-explosive fragmentation and rocket shells for Grad and Hurricanes.
– Are there countries that can help them?
– There are certain countries, but in many cases they sell through third countries.
- In early December, Russia announced the strengthening of cooperation with Iran. Will this somehow affect the Russian-Ukrainian war?
- Everyone has already seen and heard these flying "mopeds". Some may even have experienced it. These drones have been handed over. Whether they will go further [to missiles] is an open question. Everyone is working to prevent this from happening. And Iran itself realized that it is so easy to pass it on to Russia - this is not perceived by the world. Even the world with which they are accustomed to communicate normally.
See also:
USA: Iran and Russia are on the way to a full-fledged military partnership. This is a threat not only to Ukraine
- That is, apart from "mopeds", nothing shines for Russia from Iran?
- In addition to the "mopeds" Shahed-136 and Shahed-131. There was a large Mohajer-6, similar to the Bayraktar in performance characteristics. They are trying to buy ammunition from them and want the Iranians to sell ballistic missiles. However, Iran never handed over a single missile.
– And China?
- China has not transferred any weapons either. And will not pass, as we understand.
MARINE "COTTONS", "SCOUT" ARESTOVICH AND VACATION IN THE CRIMEA
– Ukraine is now assembling a fleet of kamikaze marine drones . Should we expect new "pops" in the Black Sea?
- One of the reasons why the Russian fleet cannot operate normally is the weather conditions. The weather is not very favorable for the activities of ships. For the use of water drones - also not very good. When there are favorable conditions, I think their application will be continued.
- How many equipment and positions of the enemy were discovered with the help of the "people's satellite" (another volunteer project. - Ed. )?
- I have no answer. It simply doesn't exist. We use a lot of spacecraft. It all goes into the general flow.
- Did Aleksey Arestovich really serve in the GUR?
- Once, as far as I remember, I served here.
- So it's not a fake?
- It was a long time ago, we need to raise the data. As far as I remember, yes.
- How many guests were evacuated from the Crimean Tatar "Musafir" for the sake of your dinner with the Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova?
- No one.
- And how did your guards react when you said that you were going to Musafir?
- What's the problem? We needed to talk. I go to the store sometimes. Do you think the mall is closing for me to come in? No.
Of course, I always have officers with me, but I'm not paranoid.
- Where would you advise to go to the sea on vacation in the summer of 2023?
- I will advise you to the Crimea. This is the pearl of Ukraine, which has been waiting for Ukrainian tourists for a long time.
Yuri Smirnov
LIGA.net special correspondent
Valeria Kondratova
Liga.net special correspondent
