It's tedious, like a ritual, but I'm once again asking: why do people just repeat this? It does Ukraine no favours. There are perfectly good sources out there. Like Mediazone/BBC. Let's say BBC undercounts by 50% (12k). Then UAF still overcounts by factor of 5.
This is more useful, including to Ukraine's cause because it helps those supporting Ukraine argue for much more support given the 'sustainability' of Russian loses in overall demographic context.
LINKKI
What does this mean? A doubling of death rates, esp. for young. Is it 'sustainable'? Well yes, given the relative low death rates of young. Does it tally with the middle-range estimate of deaths (c.20-25k)? Yes. Is it a tragedy? Also yes...
... Does clearly evidenced and maybe slightly undercounting 25k do more or less to support Ukrainian arguments for more weapons? I'd say yes! (once again because this is Twitter I have to point out I don't express an opinion here on whether I think more weapons is good)...
...Thing is, touting ridiculous 125k killed, 800 KIA *a DAY* by Ukrainian General Staff only helps timorous in the West, left and right, argue that Ukraine is already perfectly well debilitating Russians and so the trickle of support is fine. Propaganda is counterproductive...
To go back to demographics. As was pointed out in my earlier thread, such evidence is actually pretty helpful, indicating things like the massive death gradient among Russian men=mobilization is much less than the sum of what it appears (as presented by Ukr/Rus supporters alike).
Sure, it's naive to believe Ukrainian general staff would not overcount for morale reasons, and that this gets misinterpreted and amplified. But once again, if you support Ukraine better to emphasize that numbers are not on their side and allies need to get real.
'Allies' [sic] getting real ain't gonna happen if you're broadcasting that 800 'orcs' [sic] a day are getting 'bonked' [sic]. Sorry, that's a bit too much sick. Hundreds of casualties (incl. wounded) a day on each side is enough to eventually mean Ukraine will fail in objectives.
This is just fact, not opinion. People will interpret this to mean I'm another one of those lefties arguing for negotiations now. No, I'm not. I'm arguing for Ukrainian supporters to inject realism if they want to mobilize massive available support from allies (unforthcoming).
For what it's worth, negotiations are pointless now because it boils down to good faith and realism on the Russian side. Neither exist. Lots of lefties talk about West fighting to last Ukrainian, but the real issue is that it is possible for Putin to fight to the last Russian.
More tedium: I'm not expressing my opinion in this thread, but because this is twitter, etc, etc... mistaking observation and analysis for opinion, etc.
