Ukrainan konflikti/sota
SatSotHist
Kapteeni
Olisi hienoa mutta tuo lause pistää silmään:
"we received signals that may indicate that the russian federation will start returning Ukrainian children"
Puhe, lupaukset ja melkein-tekemiset ovat halpoja hyödykkeitä venäjänmaalla. Ryssien lupaukset tai epämääräiset signaamit eivät ole yhtään minkään arvoisia ilman konkreettisia toimia.
Taputan asialle vasta kun kaapattujen lasten systemaattiset palautukset oikeasti alkavat isossa mittakaavassa.
OXPAHA
Kenraali
"Puhelussa venäläiset valittelevat, että sodan voittaminen edellyttäisi Harkovan ja Kiovan miehittämistä."Alkaa kai paikallinen rivisotilaskin ihmettelemään. Toivottavasti leviäisi.
Sotilas valittaa: Ajoneuvot loppu, taistelutahto murenee | Verkkouutiset
Sotilas valittaa: Ajoneuvot loppu, taistelutahto murenee | Verkkouutisetwww.verkkouutiset.fi
Tässä sodassa on käynyt selväksi pari asiaa jotka olisivat olleet helposti laskettavissa ja pääteltävissä jo ennen sotaa, ellei logiikka olisi ollut putlerin tasolla. Tärkein on se ettei kenelläkään, edes USAlla ole resursseja käydä 2 maailmansodan tyyppisiä massiivisia kalustotaisteluita miljoonien miesten voimin. Pää tulee käteen jopa ryssällä. Ehkä Kiina voisi heittää rintamalle miljoona miestä Korean sodan malliin, mutta ei venäjä. Käytännössä sota on jo pysähtynyt. Kiovan ja Harkovan valtaaminen on täyttä fantasiaa.
Toinen virhe on kuvitella että vihamielinen miljoonakaupunki "miehitettäisiin" nyt nähdyn sodan keinoin. Kiovassa on kolme miljoonaa, Harkovassa 1,5 miljoonaa asukasta. Miten kaupungit vallattaisiin, kun Zhukov ei ole tekemässä pihtiliikkeitä pysäyttämättömillä panssarilautoilla, kaupungit ovat vihamielisiä eikä väestöä ole pommitettu rauhalliseksi, eikä miljoonaa miestä voida irrottaa ryöstämään ja raiskaamaan? Miten kaupunki pidettäisiin hallinnassa, ja mikä olisi end game?
Nyt vain odotellaan milloin riittävän moni ryssissä tajuaa että haukattiin paskaa. Hitaasti menee musikalla tajuntaan.
Antares
Respected Leader
Totta, parasta odottaa ja malttaa mielensä.
Viimeisen viikon aikana on kuitenkin nähty useampia videoita, missä lapsia on palautettu Venäjältä Ukrainaan. Meinasin kommentoida niihin, että mahtoiko "joku" säikähtää Venäjällä ja määrätä lapset palautettavaksi?
Toivottavasti ensimmäiset tapaukset vasta ja lisää seuraa pian, mutta ei voida olla varmoja ennen kuin näin tapahtuu.
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Yksi venäläinen ryhmä valittaa kohtaloaan:
A group of Russian soldiers complaining about their situation. All local officers from the so called DPR left their positions, only mobilized soldiers remained.
putkirassi
Kapteeni
Isompi on parempi, tai en siis tykkää, näkyy ainakin sivukuvassa kaikkin tähtäyssysteemeihin aikas kauas kunnolla ja on poikkipintaa mihin osua.
Antares
Respected Leader
Tulee mieleen ajatuksia Saksan ja Ranskan sodasta 19.7.1870 – 10.5.1871 ja Pariisin piirityksestä. Saksa ei edes yrittänyt "vallata kaupunkia" mutta onnistui piirittämään sen. Silti kesti pitkän aikaa ennen kuin Ranska antautui.
Maaliskuussa 2022 ryssä yritti piirittää Kiovaa, lähettivät joukkoja kiertämään sen länsipuolelle. Muutama kärki puski idän suunnalta, näistä vain yksi pääsi kaupungin porteille. Etelästä Khersonin suunnalta yritettiin myös, mutta se yritys pysäytettiin melko nopeasti.
Arvaan että alkuperäinen suunnitelma oli ajaa Kiovaan samalla tyylillä millä ajoivat Groznyyn ensimmäisen Tsetsenian sodan aikana. Kun tämä paraatimarssi ei toiminut, seuraava vaihtoehto oli piirityksen yritys, mutta siihen ei riittänyt joukkoja. Vaikka saartorengas olisikin saatu aikaiseksi, ei olisi ollut takeita että se kyetään pitämään. Vaatii mm. paljon jalkaväkeä ja kalustoa, olisi pahasti altis läpimurtoyrityksille.
Samaa mieltä siitä että juuri kenelläkään ei ole varaa massiivisten resurssien sotaan, ei ainakaan pitkällä aikavälillä. "Lyhyt ja voitokas sota" voisi onnistua, mutta pitkä sota käy hyvin äkkiä hyvin kalliiksi.
Kuuntelin eilen yhden Michael Kofmanin tuoreehkon haastattelun (video julkaistu 7.3.2023), hän arvioi että Venäjän sodanjohto oli varautunut juuri tähän: vihollisella on pieni armeija eikä juuri reservejä. Täten Venäjäkään ei tarvitse massiivista määrää jalkaväkeä, koska sivustoja ei tarvitse suojata (koska vastustajalla ei ole joukkoja millä uhata sivustoja). Samalla kun ei varauduttu oikeaan suursotaan, ei tietysti myöskään varauduttu tällaisen sodan tukemiseen logistiikan kannalta. Hän puhuu tästä alle lainatun videon ajanhetkestä 29:12 alkaen.
Jos haluaa kuunnella Kofmanin esityksen alusta alkaen, niin hän pääsee ääneen videon ajanhetkellä 11:40.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Mieleen tuli kasvojen pesu tuossa palautuksissa. Väitetysti tuhansia kaapattu ja kymmeniä palautettu. Mutta toivotaan.
rantapiru
Kersantti
VT6 varrella todella harvoin näkee pitkäkilpisiä. Venäläisiä tulee ja menee rajan yli kaksoiskansalaisuuden turvin, päivittäistavarakaupoissa venäläisiä on silloin tällöin, mutta ei puhettakaan että entiseen tapaan kiilaisivat kassajonossa ohi.
Vaalimaan rekkajonoista ei puhettakaan. Paikalliset päivittäistavarakaupat jotka investoivat ryssäturismiin ovat ottaneet pataan ihan kunnolla. Sinänsä harmi, kyllä se venäläinen raha tänne kelpaisi, mutta vasta sitten kun naapurissa on opittu elämään ihmisiksi. Opitaanko, epäilen ettei opita.
Tarttisi Murmanskista, Karjalan Tasavallasta ja Leningradin alueesta luoda itsenäiset kansalliset puskurivaltiot joiden hallitukset on alistettu Suomelle samaan tapaan kuin Valko-Venäjä on alistettu Moskovalle. Tällä varmistettaisiin se että vastaisuudessakin täällä saa rauhassa istua Busterin nokassa ongella kaislikossa ja keskittyä globaalisti tärkeisiin asioihin kuten päivän kuhasaaliista tai perunasadosta.
rantapiru
Kersantti
Ad hominem.
tulikomento
Supreme Leader
Ja miten olivat ajatelleet toimia siinäkin rysyille parhaimmassa mahdollisessa skenaariossa jossa panssarilautat saadaan ajettua Puolan ja Romanian rajoille ? Alistettavaksi jää se 40 miljoonaa perkeleen kiukkuista ukrainalaista, jotka arvatenkin aloittaisivat loputtoman lännen tukeman sissisodan miehittäjää vastaan. Ei onnistunut supervalta Neuvostoliitolta Afganistanissa. Ja ei tule mitenkään onnistumaan supervallaksi haluavalta Mordorilta Ukrainan täydellinen alistaminen.
Antares
Respected Leader
Chris_O kääntänyt yhden venäläisen mobilisoidun ryhmän tarinan, laitan tekstin ja kuvat spoilerin taakse:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1639530708812046337.html
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Lainaan myös alle hänen kommenttinsa eilen täälläkin nähdystä videosta:
A remarkable detail in this video: they say that Russian soldiers were being systematically "taxed" by their DPR commanders. Those who couldn't or wouldn't pay were sent to the front line, and often to their deaths. Another indication of the systematic corruption of the DPR.
Minun näkemys: olisin järkyttynyt jos vastaavaa ei tapahtuisi laajasti myös "venäläisissä joukoissa". Maksu komentajalle siitä ettei joudu etulinjaan taistelemaan ja kuolemaan? Kuulostaa hyvin perivenäläiseltä tyyliltä rikastua (komentajan osalta).
Another account has been published of Russia's disastrous attempt to seize Vuhledar last month using poorly trained and equipped mobilised soldiers. One man says only three out of his unit of 300 survived, having been sent to fight with "bare hands".
Men mobilised from the Irkutsk, Altai and Omsk regions and their families say that after the professional soldiers of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade suffered heavy losses in fighting near Vuhledar, hundreds of barely trained mobilised soldiers were sent in.
The Omsk men were given minimal training before going to Ukraine. They "fired off a magazine of cartridges and stood on the parade ground, marching and stamping their feet." That was all they did in three months of service before being sent to the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.
When they arrived, they spent a week in a trench before being sent to fight at Vuhledar. Their commanders' selection was arbitrary: "They pointed a finger: those who were absent at that moment, drunk or sleeping, remained there, and those who caught their eye moved forward."
The fighting took place in an area known as the "Vuhledar dachas" – two groups of holiday cottages south of Vuhledar itself. The Russians lost hundreds of men and dozens of armoured vehicles in the battle.
The battle was chaotic, with the men advancing against heavily fortified and well-defended Ukrainian positions without adequate artillery support or reinforcements. The men were armed only with automatic rifles.
The brother of one of the men says: "In these dachas, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also very well fortified – [our men] are thrown into the assault, my brother's group of 10-12 men could hardly hold out there for a week.
"After one day of battle, among those unprepared soldiers he was the only one left. There were no reinforcements, the artillery was working in an incomprehensible way, and at times it was unclear whose it was – because it was firing at its own people."
The soldier, Andrey, found himself "sitting in a cellar somewhere, firing back at the Ukrainian armed forces who were entrenched in well-fortified positions. And in that situation there was no order to go on the defensive! The order came to assault.
"And what kind of an assault is possible if we are dying one by one even in defence?! The sniper is working, but there are no fewer Ukrainians. Where can we assault?"
Adding to their problems, the men were not trained to work as a group and were unable to provide effective covering fire. Many were killed in the battle. Andrey called his brother Ivan at the end of February to tell him what had happened.
"I heard his voice trembling: "Brother, I don't know how I survived. But I was the only one left in my group". He sobbed for about 10 minutes, telling how his comrades-in-arms, 20-year-old guys, were dying right in front of his eyes.
"They were terrified of this war and just fell into a stupor and became easy targets. He saw them die and could do nothing to help.
"By some miracle he survived the meat grinder, they even told him that he had been nominated for an award and all he could think about was how to get out of there: 'Why do I have to die in someone else's land?'"
Andrey was bitter because "the commanders openly considered them as meat" and forced the men at gunpoint to go into suicidal assaults. His unit was likely under the command of 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DNR) forces, who have gained a reputation for brutality.
"They were covered by [the guns of] local contractors and when you start asking questions or are indignant, they stick a gun to your head and rush you into the assault."
Worse was to come. The men were withdrawn from Vuhledar and sent to attack nearby Avdiivka on 3 March.
Andrey called his family again 10 days later. He was now one of only three survivors from his entire brigade. "The brigade is gone, it's just gone. There are three guys left alive (after reinforcement in Makiivka), one of them is a 300 [wounded].
"Guys are thrown into the front line in an assault with one automatic rifle, there is no cover, no first aid, many die from not being assisted in time. [The DNR] do not take the wounded from the battlefield, and if they do, they only take the slightly wounded.
"They are afraid of losing their equipment and of "lying on shells". We are forced to go into an assault at gunpoint. If you refuse, you are put in a cage and fed only once a day, the same with water. If you have to pee you have to go into a bag.
"There is lawlessness and mayhem on the part of the commanders. And the commanders say openly: 'You are only meat for us and nothing else. You can forget the promised rewards and payments. You simply do not exist.'"
Andrey described how he and his comrades were dumped by DNR forces on "landing strips", from where his unit had to walk across open countryside, with no cover, to attack fortified Ukrainian positions. Not surprisingly, they didn't make it.
"Everything there [in Avdiivka] is dug up, everything is poured into concrete, it is simply impossible to survive there. They throw [the men] out in an open field, and [send them] forward." Worse still, their own artillery was so inaccurate that it hit them repeatedly.
In a subsequent call, Andrey said that he was trying to preserve his life by taking a new position two kilometers away, presumably on a quieter section of the front line. "[I'm] taking a risk, because those who return or leave their positions are shot in the back.
"But I have to say: this is a complete ass and I’m going to refuse. That's it, fuck it, our guys are gone. Those whom I was with from Omsk – 300 people, they are just gone."
He acknowledged that he was likely to face consequences for leaving his position – either being thrown into a fresh assault or being executed. It's not clear what has happened to Andrey since then.
The Omsk men were not the only ones to be annihilated at Avdiivka. As has previously been documented, so too was the 1439th Regiment from Irkutsk. Relatives of some of the few survivors have described what happened.
Like the Omsk men, the Irkutsk men were dumped from APCs in the middle of open countryside. One wife says: "On 1 March, early in the morning their battalion of 25 men were brought in by the DNR troops on two APCs and literally kicked out in an open field. And they drove away!
"They were unsupported, wearing such thin armour you could pierce them with a stick. Before they even had time to look around, [the Ukrainians] started shooting at them. According to my husband, it was "some bird" [a drone] that caused the most injuries."
Her husband was badly wounded in the Ukrainian bombardment. "He was lucky that his comrade-in-arms carried him, they usually do not do that. Usually they leave people behind, both wounded and killed, and put them all on the list of the missing.
"He said they ran and then walked across a field strewn with corpses. Just walking over bodies that were still warm. It was a nightmare, he said and cried."
Only two members of the battalion survived, albeit with wounds.
Despite the husband's injuries, his commanders still wanted him to continue fighting. "He phoned me and said that he still has shrapnel in his leg and tomorrow he will be discharged and will have to go back to the assault."
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Source: https://www.sibreal.org/a/mobilizovannye-iz-sibiri-otkazyvayutsya-voevat/32321682.html
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Kommenteissa häneltä kysytään näin:
Thanks. What’s the source- a Telegram channel? How to verify?
Johon hän vastasi näin: LINKKI
It's from Radio Free Europe's Russian-language service, and the details tally with other accounts that I've documented. I've no doubt that it's authentic.
Men mobilised from the Irkutsk, Altai and Omsk regions and their families say that after the professional soldiers of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade suffered heavy losses in fighting near Vuhledar, hundreds of barely trained mobilised soldiers were sent in.
The Omsk men were given minimal training before going to Ukraine. They "fired off a magazine of cartridges and stood on the parade ground, marching and stamping their feet." That was all they did in three months of service before being sent to the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.
When they arrived, they spent a week in a trench before being sent to fight at Vuhledar. Their commanders' selection was arbitrary: "They pointed a finger: those who were absent at that moment, drunk or sleeping, remained there, and those who caught their eye moved forward."
The fighting took place in an area known as the "Vuhledar dachas" – two groups of holiday cottages south of Vuhledar itself. The Russians lost hundreds of men and dozens of armoured vehicles in the battle.
The battle was chaotic, with the men advancing against heavily fortified and well-defended Ukrainian positions without adequate artillery support or reinforcements. The men were armed only with automatic rifles.
The brother of one of the men says: "In these dachas, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also very well fortified – [our men] are thrown into the assault, my brother's group of 10-12 men could hardly hold out there for a week.
"After one day of battle, among those unprepared soldiers he was the only one left. There were no reinforcements, the artillery was working in an incomprehensible way, and at times it was unclear whose it was – because it was firing at its own people."
The soldier, Andrey, found himself "sitting in a cellar somewhere, firing back at the Ukrainian armed forces who were entrenched in well-fortified positions. And in that situation there was no order to go on the defensive! The order came to assault.
"And what kind of an assault is possible if we are dying one by one even in defence?! The sniper is working, but there are no fewer Ukrainians. Where can we assault?"
Adding to their problems, the men were not trained to work as a group and were unable to provide effective covering fire. Many were killed in the battle. Andrey called his brother Ivan at the end of February to tell him what had happened.
"I heard his voice trembling: "Brother, I don't know how I survived. But I was the only one left in my group". He sobbed for about 10 minutes, telling how his comrades-in-arms, 20-year-old guys, were dying right in front of his eyes.
"They were terrified of this war and just fell into a stupor and became easy targets. He saw them die and could do nothing to help.
"By some miracle he survived the meat grinder, they even told him that he had been nominated for an award and all he could think about was how to get out of there: 'Why do I have to die in someone else's land?'"
Andrey was bitter because "the commanders openly considered them as meat" and forced the men at gunpoint to go into suicidal assaults. His unit was likely under the command of 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DNR) forces, who have gained a reputation for brutality.
"They were covered by [the guns of] local contractors and when you start asking questions or are indignant, they stick a gun to your head and rush you into the assault."
Worse was to come. The men were withdrawn from Vuhledar and sent to attack nearby Avdiivka on 3 March.
Andrey called his family again 10 days later. He was now one of only three survivors from his entire brigade. "The brigade is gone, it's just gone. There are three guys left alive (after reinforcement in Makiivka), one of them is a 300 [wounded].
"Guys are thrown into the front line in an assault with one automatic rifle, there is no cover, no first aid, many die from not being assisted in time. [The DNR] do not take the wounded from the battlefield, and if they do, they only take the slightly wounded.
"They are afraid of losing their equipment and of "lying on shells". We are forced to go into an assault at gunpoint. If you refuse, you are put in a cage and fed only once a day, the same with water. If you have to pee you have to go into a bag.
"There is lawlessness and mayhem on the part of the commanders. And the commanders say openly: 'You are only meat for us and nothing else. You can forget the promised rewards and payments. You simply do not exist.'"
Andrey described how he and his comrades were dumped by DNR forces on "landing strips", from where his unit had to walk across open countryside, with no cover, to attack fortified Ukrainian positions. Not surprisingly, they didn't make it.
"Everything there [in Avdiivka] is dug up, everything is poured into concrete, it is simply impossible to survive there. They throw [the men] out in an open field, and [send them] forward." Worse still, their own artillery was so inaccurate that it hit them repeatedly.
In a subsequent call, Andrey said that he was trying to preserve his life by taking a new position two kilometers away, presumably on a quieter section of the front line. "[I'm] taking a risk, because those who return or leave their positions are shot in the back.
"But I have to say: this is a complete ass and I’m going to refuse. That's it, fuck it, our guys are gone. Those whom I was with from Omsk – 300 people, they are just gone."
He acknowledged that he was likely to face consequences for leaving his position – either being thrown into a fresh assault or being executed. It's not clear what has happened to Andrey since then.
The Omsk men were not the only ones to be annihilated at Avdiivka. As has previously been documented, so too was the 1439th Regiment from Irkutsk. Relatives of some of the few survivors have described what happened.
Like the Omsk men, the Irkutsk men were dumped from APCs in the middle of open countryside. One wife says: "On 1 March, early in the morning their battalion of 25 men were brought in by the DNR troops on two APCs and literally kicked out in an open field. And they drove away!
"They were unsupported, wearing such thin armour you could pierce them with a stick. Before they even had time to look around, [the Ukrainians] started shooting at them. According to my husband, it was "some bird" [a drone] that caused the most injuries."
Her husband was badly wounded in the Ukrainian bombardment. "He was lucky that his comrade-in-arms carried him, they usually do not do that. Usually they leave people behind, both wounded and killed, and put them all on the list of the missing.
"He said they ran and then walked across a field strewn with corpses. Just walking over bodies that were still warm. It was a nightmare, he said and cried."
Only two members of the battalion survived, albeit with wounds.
Despite the husband's injuries, his commanders still wanted him to continue fighting. "He phoned me and said that he still has shrapnel in his leg and tomorrow he will be discharged and will have to go back to the assault."
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Source: https://www.sibreal.org/a/mobilizovannye-iz-sibiri-otkazyvayutsya-voevat/32321682.html
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Kommenteissa häneltä kysytään näin:
Thanks. What’s the source- a Telegram channel? How to verify?
Johon hän vastasi näin: LINKKI
It's from Radio Free Europe's Russian-language service, and the details tally with other accounts that I've documented. I've no doubt that it's authentic.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1639530708812046337.html
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Lainaan myös alle hänen kommenttinsa eilen täälläkin nähdystä videosta:
A remarkable detail in this video: they say that Russian soldiers were being systematically "taxed" by their DPR commanders. Those who couldn't or wouldn't pay were sent to the front line, and often to their deaths. Another indication of the systematic corruption of the DPR.
Minun näkemys: olisin järkyttynyt jos vastaavaa ei tapahtuisi laajasti myös "venäläisissä joukoissa". Maksu komentajalle siitä ettei joudu etulinjaan taistelemaan ja kuolemaan? Kuulostaa hyvin perivenäläiseltä tyyliltä rikastua (komentajan osalta).
teknohippi
Ylipäällikkö
Aina kun ryssälässä tapahtuu jossain asiassa suunnanmuutos niin vika on kyseistä asiaa hoitaneessa pajarissa ja siinä että zaaria johdettiin harhaan. Nykykäytännön mukaan tälläinen pajari tuuletellaan pihalle. Ukrainalaisten lasten ryöstö oli nyt selkeästi tälläinen asia, kaikesta ryssän mutinasta huolimatta se ICC:n pidätysmääräys on ongelma puttelille. Ainakin makaronin ja sutsisatsiZölZin sekoilu kummasti rauhoittu tuon jälkeen. Kuka lienee tuon lapsikaappauksen keksinyt mutta putteli sitä tuki ja hyväksyi. Kun zaari ei voi olla väärässä niin ratkaisu on siinä pajarissa. Veikkaan lennokasta loppuuraa lapsiasiavaltuutetulle ja hänen lähimmälle esikunnalleen. Seuraajat sitten ottaa tästä opikseen ja toimivat toisin.
Antares
Respected Leader
Rostovin seudulla palaa jotain, tästä taisi olla video hieman eri kulmasta jo aikaisemmin tänään:
Rostov, what's up? Have you smoked again?
A warehouse with cellulose products caught fire on the Novocherkassk highway.
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Luhanskin seudulla osuttu ryssän polttoaineautoihin, viestin mukaan paikka olisi Kulykivka:
Destruction of an accumulation of Russian fuel trucks in Kulykivka, Luhansk region.
Yksi kommentoija kirjoittaa näin: LINKKI
Looks like a GMLRS strike, same frag pattern as other strikes
Rostov, what's up? Have you smoked again?
A warehouse with cellulose products caught fire on the Novocherkassk highway.
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Luhanskin seudulla osuttu ryssän polttoaineautoihin, viestin mukaan paikka olisi Kulykivka:
Destruction of an accumulation of Russian fuel trucks in Kulykivka, Luhansk region.
Yksi kommentoija kirjoittaa näin: LINKKI
Looks like a GMLRS strike, same frag pattern as other strikes
rantapiru
Kersantti
Challenger vs. T-54/55 on vähän kuin laittaisi Panzerkampfwagen VI Ausführung H (Tiger I) vastaan T-26/1933 version. Tasangolla siinä tulee käymään juuri samalla tavalla. Todellisuudessa ero olisi vielä huikeampi kun Ukrainan "battlefield awareness" on sukupolvia edellä siitä mitä ryssän tämänhetkisellä toppatakkiporukalla on kapasiteettia.
Koko vastakkainasettelu on ihan absurdi.
Olis ajettu edes samalle puolen tietä kuvauksen ajaksi, niin näkis todellisen koko eron. Vääristyy kuva reippaasti, kun etäisyys ei ole sama.
Toki Stalin sai aikanaan Ukrainan ja koko Itä-Euroopan alistettua, kun käytti stalinistisia metodeja.
Afganistan vuoristoineen ja kulttuureineen on aika eri asia. Brititkin aikanaan valtasivat puoli maailmaa, mutta Afganistanin pitäminen ei heiltä onnistunut.