Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Mielenkiintoista tosiaan, että kun täälläkin pohdiskeltiin, milloin ryssä mahdollisesti aloittaa suurhyökkäyksensä, niin tuo hyökkäys olikin koko ajan ollut käynnissä. Tämän parempaa suoritusta ei siis örkeiltä liene enää odotettavissa.

Ukrainan pitäisi sitten vain saada oma offensiivinsa liikkeelle. Jos esimerkiksi örkkien yhteydet Krimille saataisiin katkottua, sodan loppu olisi varmasti lähellä.
 
Zelenskyn puheet siitä, miten Ukraina ei ole valmis vastahyökkäykseen eivät välttämättä ole pelkkää maskirovkaa. Puolalainen lainaa 13.3.2023 julkaistua Washington Postin artikkelia:

The Washington Post published an article on March 13, 2023 about the state of Ukraine's armed forces before their expected spring counter-offensive.

The journalists spoke with several Ukrainian soldiers, including the battalion commander of the 46th Airborne Brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Anatoly Kozel, nickname "Kupol". In 2015, he was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.

The lieutenant colonel stated in an interview that one of the reasons for the high losses in his battalion was sending inexperienced soldiers to combat after ineffective training. In the conversation, among others, words like:

- I get 100 new soldiers. They don't give me time to prepare them. They say, "Take them to fight." But when they fight, they can just drop everything and run away. And that's it. I ask the soldier why he doesn't shoot, and he says, "Because I'm afraid of the sound of the shot." And, for some reason, never threw a grenade in training. We need NATO instructors in all our training centers and our instructors must be sent to the trenches. Because many of them have failed at what they do.

For this interview, Lieutenant Colonel Kozel was dismissed from his post. The command also reported that the information provided by him was exaggerated.

This situation received wide coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

I decided to calmly verify the words of Anatoly Kozel. I did a little journalistic investigation. Unfortunately, at a distance, because I had to do it from Poland. I talked to people who met "Kupol". Both with Poles and Ukrainians. But also with Ukrainian soldiers who have recently undergone training. Everyone stands up for Kupol.

My conclusions are simple: Lieutenant Colonel Kozel's words were sincere and truthful. He probably decided to talk to the media, because earlier attempts to influence his superiors and improve the quality of training did not work.

I will quote the statements of three people I spoke to:

- He counted on the fact that they might punish him, but he took the risk because he wanted to help his soldiers.

- Yes Sir. He told the truth and was punished for the truth.

- I envy the guys who had training in Great Britain. We still have some "post-Soviet elements" in our army. Many instructors were unmotivated. There were also those who never fought. We had too much theory and not enough training at the training ground. Now, after the experience at the front, I understand it well. And such a frivolous approach to training harms our soldiers.

In the meantime, information appears in the Ukrainian media that talks are underway between Lt. Col. Kozel and his command. More soon, in a longer article.


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Jaroslaw Wolski vastasi tähän kirjoitukseen kahden viestin verran: LÄHDE

@LachowskiMateus

I verified it through my channels: near Soledar, one of the battalions of this brigade lost 90% of its number (wounded and killed) in 1.5 days of fighting, and the second battalion almost 1/4. It turned out that the training from GB was suboptimal.

but if you want an interesting case study for your investigation, explore the matter of throwing that battalion in Soledar. The hair on his head stands on end, but he doesn't want to talk about it publicly.

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Varmasti tässä on osa totuudesta, tosin koulutuksen tuomaa apua ei sovi väheksyä. Pitkälti kuitenkin puhutaan siviilien pikakoulutuksesta sotilaiksi (poislukien reserviläiset, mutta heidänkin kohdalla pitää miettiä millaisen "koulutuksen" he saivat asepalveluksensa aikana, varsinkin jos suorittivat sen ennen vuotta 2014?).

Joku sotaa seuraava, en millään muista kuka, sanoi joku viikko sitten että sodan pitkittyessä siitä tulee enemmän ja enemmän reserviläisten ja reservinupseerien käymä sota. Koskee molempia osapuolia. Toki kumpikin mobilisoi reservijoukkoja JA muodostaa kokonaan uusia joukkoja kouluttamalla siviileitä (tai vapaaehtoisia) mutta arvatenkin yli vuoden jatkunut sota on kuluttanut kummankin parhaat ja ammattimaisimmat joukot tehokkaasti. Ei tietysti 100%, mutta isolta osin menetetty ja kulutettu. Sotaa jatketaan sillä mitä on jäljellä ja tämä ei voi olla näkymättä kautta linjan. Taktinen osaaminen, aselajien yhteistyö yms. jouduttaneen opettelemaan samalla kun taistellaan, koska sitä ei ole ehditty juurikaan opettaa joukolle annetun pikakoulutuksen aikana (perusteet ehkä, mutta aika ei riitä ihmeisiin).

Korostaa taas entisestään suuren, hyvin koulutetun JA kertautetun reserviarmeijan merkitystä. Ei saa unohtaa: osaaminen häviää, jos ei harjoitella. Muuten ollaan samassa tilanteessa kuin Ukraina ja Venäjä nyt: kertauttamattomia reserviläisiä pikakoulutuksen kautta suoraan taisteluihin. Hirveätä tuhlausta, tosin tämän sodan osalta minkäs teet kun tähän on tultu.
 
MUOKKAUS: kommentoitiin että tämä voisi olla vanha ja kyseessä VDV:n taidonnäyte.

Wirallisen tietämyksen mukaan VDV tulee Vozdushno-desantnye voyska, mutta googlekääntäjän mukaa yhden kirjaimen lisäämällä Vozdushno-desantnyye voyska tarkoittaakin ilmaan ampuvat joukot.
 
Julia Davisin haastattelu Silicon Curtain kanavalla
Kerää tosiaan todisteita kansanmurhaan kannustavasta propagandasta. Solovjev ja Simonjan ovat ihan täysin tietoisia siitä, mitä tekevät. Vaikka aiemminkin puhuivat, että saattavat joutua Haagiin sanomisistaan, niin Putinin ja Lvova-Belovan pidätysmääräys oli märkä rätti, luulivat aiemmin, että olisivat saaneet syytteet vasta Venäjän hävitessä, ei vielä nykyisenkaltaisessa vaiheessa. Ja samalla se oli märkä rätti heidän haaveilleen, että voisvat jatkossakin vapaana lännessä matkustaa,shoppailla ja huvitella miten haluavat.
Jopa noissa propagandaohjelmissa monesti mainitaan, että Venäjällä on paljon ihmisiä, jotka eivät tue sotaa. Ydiniskuilla uhkailuista Davis sanoo, että ovat tosiaan huolissaan tällä hetkellä vastaiskusta, mutta että propagandistit luottavat siihen, että jossain vaiheessa Venäjä kehittää sellasen teknologian, että länsi ei kykene ydiniskuun vastaamaan. Ovat siis ihan valmiina tappamaan miljoonia ihmisiä, jos vaan eivät jäisi siitä kiinni. Noissa Venäjän TV:ssä näytettävissä propagandaohjelmissa näkyy paremmin se mitä Venäjän hallinto ajattelee toisin kuin ulkomailla näytettävissä ohjelmissa taas näytetään se, mitä ulkomaiden halutaan uskovan Venäjän hallinnon ajattelevan. Propagandistit mollaavat militaribloggaajia siitä, kun he moittivat miten operaatio sujuu. Propagandan linja on se, että jos Venäjä vetäytyisi nyt Ukrainasta, niin länsi hyökkäisi Venäjälle ja orjuuttaisi venäläiset.
 
Eliitin jälkikasvulle takalinjojen hommia...

"2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has published a series of documents documenting what it calls a "cronies' detachment"
called BARS-Kaskad (BARS-Cascade), commanded by Duma deputy Dmitry Sablin, the deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defence."

Aijai, näitä yksiköitä kun pääsisi Himarseilla tms. rokottamaan. Toivottavasti tiedustelu pelaa..

Ei sillä että sotilaallinen merkitys olisi suuren suuri, mutta pääsisi eliitti itse nauttimaan tekojensa seurauksista.
 
Olis ajettu edes samalle puolen tietä kuvauksen ajaksi, niin näkis todellisen koko eron. Vääristyy kuva reippaasti, kun etäisyys ei ole sama.
Vääristyyhän se, mutta en nyt sanoisi, että reippaasti. Ei tuo tie nyt niin leveä ole. Google osaa kertoa C2:n pituudeksi 8,3 m ja T-54:n 6,45 m. Ohessa aika tarkkaan mittakaavaan skaalattuna https://www.the-blueprints.com/:sta peräisin olevat piirrokset samassa kuvassa.
c2-t-54.jpg
 
Chris_O kääntänyt yhden venäläisen mobilisoidun ryhmän tarinan, laitan tekstin ja kuvat spoilerin taakse:

Another account has been published of Russia's disastrous attempt to seize Vuhledar last month using poorly trained and equipped mobilised soldiers. One man says only three out of his unit of 300 survived, having been sent to fight with "bare hands".

Men mobilised from the Irkutsk, Altai and Omsk regions and their families say that after the professional soldiers of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade suffered heavy losses in fighting near Vuhledar, hundreds of barely trained mobilised soldiers were sent in.

The Omsk men were given minimal training before going to Ukraine. They "fired off a magazine of cartridges and stood on the parade ground, marching and stamping their feet." That was all they did in three months of service before being sent to the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.

When they arrived, they spent a week in a trench before being sent to fight at Vuhledar. Their commanders' selection was arbitrary: "They pointed a finger: those who were absent at that moment, drunk or sleeping, remained there, and those who caught their eye moved forward."

The fighting took place in an area known as the "Vuhledar dachas" – two groups of holiday cottages south of Vuhledar itself. The Russians lost hundreds of men and dozens of armoured vehicles in the battle.

Image

The battle was chaotic, with the men advancing against heavily fortified and well-defended Ukrainian positions without adequate artillery support or reinforcements. The men were armed only with automatic rifles.

The brother of one of the men says: "In these dachas, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also very well fortified – [our men] are thrown into the assault, my brother's group of 10-12 men could hardly hold out there for a week.

"After one day of battle, among those unprepared soldiers he was the only one left. There were no reinforcements, the artillery was working in an incomprehensible way, and at times it was unclear whose it was – because it was firing at its own people."

The soldier, Andrey, found himself "sitting in a cellar somewhere, firing back at the Ukrainian armed forces who were entrenched in well-fortified positions. And in that situation there was no order to go on the defensive! The order came to assault.

"And what kind of an assault is possible if we are dying one by one even in defence?! The sniper is working, but there are no fewer Ukrainians. Where can we assault?"

Adding to their problems, the men were not trained to work as a group and were unable to provide effective covering fire. Many were killed in the battle. Andrey called his brother Ivan at the end of February to tell him what had happened.

"I heard his voice trembling: "Brother, I don't know how I survived. But I was the only one left in my group". He sobbed for about 10 minutes, telling how his comrades-in-arms, 20-year-old guys, were dying right in front of his eyes.

"They were terrified of this war and just fell into a stupor and became easy targets. He saw them die and could do nothing to help.

"By some miracle he survived the meat grinder, they even told him that he had been nominated for an award and all he could think about was how to get out of there: 'Why do I have to die in someone else's land?'"

Andrey was bitter because "the commanders openly considered them as meat" and forced the men at gunpoint to go into suicidal assaults. His unit was likely under the command of 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DNR) forces, who have gained a reputation for brutality.

"They were covered by [the guns of] local contractors and when you start asking questions or are indignant, they stick a gun to your head and rush you into the assault."

Worse was to come. The men were withdrawn from Vuhledar and sent to attack nearby Avdiivka on 3 March.

Andrey called his family again 10 days later. He was now one of only three survivors from his entire brigade. "The brigade is gone, it's just gone. There are three guys left alive (after reinforcement in Makiivka), one of them is a 300 [wounded].

"Guys are thrown into the front line in an assault with one automatic rifle, there is no cover, no first aid, many die from not being assisted in time. [The DNR] do not take the wounded from the battlefield, and if they do, they only take the slightly wounded.

"They are afraid of losing their equipment and of "lying on shells". We are forced to go into an assault at gunpoint. If you refuse, you are put in a cage and fed only once a day, the same with water. If you have to pee you have to go into a bag.

"There is lawlessness and mayhem on the part of the commanders. And the commanders say openly: 'You are only meat for us and nothing else. You can forget the promised rewards and payments. You simply do not exist.'"

Andrey described how he and his comrades were dumped by DNR forces on "landing strips", from where his unit had to walk across open countryside, with no cover, to attack fortified Ukrainian positions. Not surprisingly, they didn't make it.

"Everything there [in Avdiivka] is dug up, everything is poured into concrete, it is simply impossible to survive there. They throw [the men] out in an open field, and [send them] forward." Worse still, their own artillery was so inaccurate that it hit them repeatedly.

In a subsequent call, Andrey said that he was trying to preserve his life by taking a new position two kilometers away, presumably on a quieter section of the front line. "[I'm] taking a risk, because those who return or leave their positions are shot in the back.

"But I have to say: this is a complete ass and I’m going to refuse. That's it, fuck it, our guys are gone. Those whom I was with from Omsk – 300 people, they are just gone."

He acknowledged that he was likely to face consequences for leaving his position – either being thrown into a fresh assault or being executed. It's not clear what has happened to Andrey since then.
The Omsk men were not the only ones to be annihilated at Avdiivka. As has previously been documented, so too was the 1439th Regiment from Irkutsk. Relatives of some of the few survivors have described what happened.


Like the Omsk men, the Irkutsk men were dumped from APCs in the middle of open countryside. One wife says: "On 1 March, early in the morning their battalion of 25 men were brought in by the DNR troops on two APCs and literally kicked out in an open field. And they drove away!

"They were unsupported, wearing such thin armour you could pierce them with a stick. Before they even had time to look around, [the Ukrainians] started shooting at them. According to my husband, it was "some bird" [a drone] that caused the most injuries."

Her husband was badly wounded in the Ukrainian bombardment. "He was lucky that his comrade-in-arms carried him, they usually do not do that. Usually they leave people behind, both wounded and killed, and put them all on the list of the missing.

"He said they ran and then walked across a field strewn with corpses. Just walking over bodies that were still warm. It was a nightmare, he said and cried."

Only two members of the battalion survived, albeit with wounds.

Despite the husband's injuries, his commanders still wanted him to continue fighting. "He phoned me and said that he still has shrapnel in his leg and tomorrow he will be discharged and will have to go back to the assault."

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Source: https://www.sibreal.org/a/mobilizovannye-iz-sibiri-otkazyvayutsya-voevat/32321682.html

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Kommenteissa häneltä kysytään näin:

Thanks. What’s the source- a Telegram channel? How to verify?

Johon hän vastasi näin: LINKKI

It's from Radio Free Europe's Russian-language service, and the details tally with other accounts that I've documented. I've no doubt that it's authentic.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1639530708812046337.html

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Lainaan myös alle hänen kommenttinsa eilen täälläkin nähdystä videosta:

A remarkable detail in this video: they say that Russian soldiers were being systematically "taxed" by their DPR commanders. Those who couldn't or wouldn't pay were sent to the front line, and often to their deaths. Another indication of the systematic corruption of the DPR.

Minun näkemys: olisin järkyttynyt jos vastaavaa ei tapahtuisi laajasti myös "venäläisissä joukoissa". Maksu komentajalle siitä ettei joudu etulinjaan taistelemaan ja kuolemaan? Kuulostaa hyvin perivenäläiseltä tyyliltä rikastua (komentajan osalta).

Tässä ketjussa oli muutama kuukausi sitten juttua venäläisestä, joka pyysi vaimoltaan rahaa, jotta voi ostaa itselleen muutaman päivän takalinjassa. Venäläinen korruptio menee läpi koko yhteiskunnan ja sota antaa vain enemmän mahdollisuuksia kerätä rahaa muilta.
 
Tässä muuten mielenkiintoista noista T-54/55 tankeista. Ne on tulossa tosiaan Ukrainaan rintamalle. Ne otettiin varastoista koska ne ei tarvii moderneja osia joista on pulaa. T-72 ja T-80 panssareita on vielä kyllä varastoissa, mutta niiden modernimpien osien takia, niitä on vaikeampi saada huollettua. Virallisesti T-54/55 panssareita Venäjällä ei ole kuin noin 250, mutta voi olla, että jossain perukoilla on varasto, jossa niitä muutama sata vielä olisi jäljellä.


Lainataan vähän

"In current situation, it makes no difference which tank comes to the front line, the main thing is to have this tank. We have almost no normally trained crews, so in combat conditions our tankers will equeally destroy both T-72B3M and T-90 tanks. "The T-55 in this sense is resource saver and an oppurtunity to buy time for UVZ (Uralvagonzavod)," says a source in Defence Ministry.
"The thesis is confirmed that the best tanks is the one that is here and now. I dont care if they are old or new, they are expendable," says a Russian expert on the military industry. As the military says, tanks will not be buried in the gorudn and user as artillery DOTs. "With the current means of defeat it makes no sense. They will used as conventional tanks," says one of the officers of the Russian group headquarters in Ukraine. "

Tuon jälkeen sanotaan, että komponenttipula on liian iso kuukausissa ratkaistavaksi. Isetin tehtaalla on mahdotonta tällä hetekllä valmistaa elektorniikkakomponentteja joita ilman on mahdotonta valmistaa lisää paksuja että ohukaisia.

Periaatteessa nuo perusteet T-54/55 mallin käyttöön kävisi vielä vanhempaankin kalustoon, eli on siis periaatteessa mahdollista, että niitä museo T-34:ia nähdään näiden loputtua.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Onneksi olkoon putler, Naton uutta sisämerta ja itärajaa vartioi nyt yksi maailman suurimmista, uudenaikaisimmista ja epäilemättä parhaiten koulutetuista ilmavoimista. Mestaristrategin uusin aikaansaannos, ei voi kuin piippalakkia nostaa.

Enpä usko että edes märissä toiveunissaan Venäjällä oli muutenkaan mitään intentioita Pohjoismaita vastaan, ainakaan ennen vuotta 2030.
 
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