Richard Vereker kommentit Covert Cabal tuoreen videon vaunutyyppikohtaisista numeroista (niiden muutos):
Russian Tanks in Storage, @CovertCabal has just released a YouTube video of his count of Russian Tanks in storage screenshot of the most important page, and here are my thoughts by type:
T-90: These 50 are very old T-90, and if they have not been taken out of store now they probably can't, but Russia still makes totally new T-90Ms
T-80: I stated before that the Regeneration of T-80 seems to stop or at least slow down this summer, and with only and with only 32 removed from storage in 6 months that checks out.
T-72: 106 of these have been taken from storage in 6 months that compares to 180 T-72s lost according to Warspotting and even more according to ORYX. Nonetheless, expect this to be the main tank for some time.
T-64: Russia has difficulty re-activating these, the factory that built them is in Ukraine. The T-64s Russa used at the front line were recently captured from Ukraine.
T-62: More of this very old tank 198 have been removed than all the other thank Types put together, at this rate, they will be down to 0 in 11 months. (if all were reparable) but we don't see that many on the front line. so maybe some are going to training or second-line roles.
T-55 Russia has taken 52 of these very old tanks out of storage, but only one has been lost at the front, so maybe they can get them to the repair factory but not out of the factory, or maybe they are just being used for training.
Overall: 388 were out of storage in 6 months while 392 were destroyed in the same time according to http://Warspottin.net
For comparison here is a graph and table of Russian Tank losses by type over time.
All data from http://WarSpotting.net
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Poimin muutaman ketjuun tulleen kysymyksen / kommentin alle:
Kommentti: So can we count it like this? They started a war with 3000 active tanks, pulled about 1500 from storage from start of war, produced about 400 in good scenario which is 3000 + 1500 + 400 = 4900 - 2500 lost = 2400 active tanks?
Richard Vereker vastaus:
um, I don't know, a lot of very hard to gauge, including what do you call active? at the front or including training second line? and what about the badly damaged and taken back to the factory to be rebuilt/stipped for spares?
But, if I were going to my numbers would be more like this:
Start: don't know maybe about 3,000
From Storage: 2500 (maybe more)
New: 300 (max)
Captured from Ukraine: 100
Destroyed, 3,100
So Badly damaged they have to go to factory: 1,100
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Kysymys: How about this. How many Russian tanks are currently operating today? That is it to say, you could start them up, drive them around, and fire their guns?
Richard Vereker vastaus: 1,500-2,000 or there abouts, a reasonable amount of those will be in Russia doing training or other duties. but thats just a guess I'm not putting a reputation on it.
Toinen kommentti:
1-2k in action in Ukraine. Can't be more precise than this guesstimate.
Russia invaded with ~2k tanks. I think that they have fewer tanks in service now than when they started - they have lost masses, and I think their replenishment is slower than they are losing them. So <2k.
More than 1k though, because they are still showing up heavily in loss data at similar rates proportional to IFV's, if they were very low the ratio would be changing or losses decreasing. And that's not what's happening. So 1-2k.
Richard Vereker vastaus: I agree with that, but worth noting that the IFV-to-tank ratio has moved this month in favor of IFVs, probably a one-off blip but will be looking to see if it repeats next month.
Johon toinen vastasi näin: Lots of BTR82's used in the attacks on Avdiivka, I expect it'll settle down if Ukraine successfully fights off the offensive (fingers crossed....vital battle).
And we have mud season coming soon. That could change loss rates etc as both sides find moving harder.
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Kysymys: Did I understand right that those numbers only take into account what is parked in the open and therfore countable? But what went out of the garages would not be seen?
Richard Vereker vastaus: Yes, that's correct, and it's hard to know for definite what is in the garages. But, what was in there was probably in the best condition so probably would have been taken out first, in early 2022, and they probably had a mix of equipment types but included a lot of the most sophisticated equipment air defense systems, communications systems, MLRS, and only some space for tanks and IFVs. but that is still an important caveat.
Covert Cabal vastaus: We count based on what is visible. There's really no way to tell what is inside of garages. Anyone who says they know is either lying, or has some CIA level sources to take pictures inside of them recently. But we've went to every extreme we can think of to estimate how many might be inside of garages. Such as looking through both Google ans Yandex imagery based on Military Unit numbers, Russian social media groups for each base, dozens of historic satellite images to see if any movement or signs of movement are visible at each garage. Based on all of that, the very maximum number of tanks there could be is 1,800. But based on those factors and other info, I'd be willing to bet no more than 200 are still inside garages
LÄHDE
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Kysymys: Is there any data on how much was taken out of the camps in the previous 6 or 12 months?
Richard Vereker vastaus: Good question, there is an early
@CovertCabal video that counted 4696 total tanks in Sep/Oct 2022, which was down to 3911 in March/April 2023 and then 3525 in the latest video, so 785 in the first 6 months and only 386 total in the second 6 months. So it feels as if they are slowly running out of easily reparable tanks. but there is no breakdown by type in Sep/Oct 2022, so it's hard to see exactly what is happening. Are you a Ukrainian Speaker who uses Telegram? if so I think there is a person called 'Mozhlivostі Rosіjskogo' who also does satellite counting of tanks/IFVs but I don't use Telegram and don't speak Ukrainian, and he does not seem to use Twitter. If you find any good information from him please share it with me.
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Kommentti: one must remember that these satellite images were 45 days old, (one large base being from July so far older), and 30 days ago huge numbers of tanks were being destroyed in this last month. so these numbers should be adjusted for the large numbers destroyed in the last month.
Richard Vereker vastaus: yes, but that is also the case for the March/April count, so the change over 6 months is still correct, approximately.
Johon alkuperäinen kommentoija vastasi näin: yes. I just wanted to adjust for a more correct number for 'today', how much does rU have today, to get a sense of how long before rU lines collapse. (however Ukr must continue large pressure through the winter for that sense to be close)
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Kommentti: Quite reasonable. If they had had thousands of T-72s and T-80s ready to reactivate, they wouldn't have been reactivating any T-55s and T-62s.
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Kysymys: I am thinking that they would take the tanks out of storage that are in the best shape. Don't the Russians find themselves with worse and worse tanks to salvage?
Richard Vereker vastaus: As far as we can tell, yes thats whats happening.
Covert Cabal vastaus: Yep, I mean that makes sense. When it comes to any government, money and budget are key. Those T-90s at the 22nd in Buy, Russia appear to be in good condition, but there's no telling their inside condition. One would think they'd be in good shape and pull those first, but even Military Balance has 90 T-90s in storage (all my searching has given me no clue where the other 40 might be). They are T-90As though, so with upgraded optics. Maybe I'm missing something. I'll keep looking though!
I dont want to reveal too much, as they might kick me out, but my alt accounts on OK and VK Russian social media have let me into 4 of the 8 main base groups. Lots of current and former personnel post images from the base, which is invaluable
Richard Vereker vastasi näin: Would there be a way to brake the October 2022 tank count by type of tank? I don’t know how difficult it might be, but presumably you know most the tanks in one group are this type and over there are that group. Sorry if this sounds like more work.
Tuohon Richard Verekerin kysymykseen ei ole tullut vastausta, valitettavasti.
BPPU turrets (as in the BTR-82)