How Will Democrats Replace Biden at the Top of the Presidential Ticket?
The president cleared the way for a successor. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, but there could still be a contest to determine who the nominee will be.
President Biden’s debate performance opened the door to political upheaval heading into the Democratic nominating convention in August.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
By
Adam Nagourney and
Jennifer Medina
- July 21, 2024, 2:24 p.m. ET
Now that President Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race, the question facing the Democratic Party is no longer whether he can be replaced at the top of the ticket. It is how to do it.
The process is complicated and opens the door to political upheaval between now and August, when Democratic delegates will gather at their convention to vote for a nominee.
Mr. Biden has the power to release all the pledged delegates he accumulated. When he does so, those delegates will be free to vote for whomever they choose. That could lead to an open convention, a rarity in modern American politics.
The prospect raises many questions.
Now what?
There is no clear answer. But there appears to be two ways this can go, based on interviews with Democratic Party leaders and strategists.
First, the party could rally around Kamala Harris, the vice president, as a unifying force during a time of crisis. That would be the easiest road to take. She has been vetted and is well-known among Democrats. She has run a national campaign before. And she could take over the Biden-Harris campaign apparatus and bank account.
Some Democrats have argued that anointing a candidate is risky, and say that the party would be better off with a competition and a more democratic selection process. That would require another candidate to get in the race. If that happens, there could be party-sanctioned forums across the country, with candidates questioned by a moderator in front of a national television audience. Short of that, the candidates could embark on a monthlong national campaign, jetting across the country to solicit support from state delegates and delegations.
Which Democrats might jump into the race?
The key person to watch is Ms. Harris. If she becomes the consensus candidate, backed by Mr. Biden and other Democratic leaders, potential competitors with White House ambitions will have a big decision to make: challenge her, in a risky maneuver that could lead to damaging intraparty divisions, or stand aside in the name of Democratic unity, as well as their own future careers.
The Democratic Party has a deep bench now. Among the potential candidates to watch are a handful of governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Other potential candidates include Pete Buttigieg, the secretary of transportation, and Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey.
Can Biden dictate his successor?
President Biden can certainly recommend what his delegates should do, and considering his standing in the party, he carries a lot of sway. But he does not control his delegates: He cannot tell them whom to vote for next month. And party politics being what it is, they are most likely to go with whomever they think has the best chance to defeat Mr. Trump.
And any attempt to anoint his successor could risk setting of ideological and generational battling in the party, potentially weakening the ultimate nominee as he or she heads onto the battlefield with Mr. Trump.
What about all the money raised by the Biden-Harris fund-raising machine?
Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have collected hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds over the past two years. That money has been allocated to the Biden campaign, the Democratic National Committee and various state Democratic organizations. As of June 30, those organizations
had a combined $240 million in cash on hand. Most of that money could be put into service on behalf of the next candidate.
There is one big exception. The Biden-Harris campaign has, as of May 30, $91 million. If Ms. Harris is the candidate, that money is hers. If it is another candidate, the Biden-Harris money could be returned to donors (highly unlikely) or transferred to a federal super PAC, which could spend it on behalf of the Democratic ticket. One candidate who would be free of these shackles is JB Pritzker, a billionaire who could finance the campaign on is own.
The clock is ticking, right? How much time does the Democratic Party have to settle this?
The Democratic Party is about to see if it can do an England: a huge consequential election in just over a month. Democrats gather in Chicago on Aug, 19 for their nominating convention; the nominee is scheduled to deliver the acceptance speech on August 22. The party sets the rules, and nothing is set in stone, but this pretty much needs to be settled by August 22. One more complication: The Democratic National Committee had been pushing for an earlier virtual roll-call in hopes of settling any doubts about Mr. Biden before the official vote, perhaps in late July or early August.
Who is being considered to replace Mr. Biden?
In addition to Ms. Harris, there is a slew of governors: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Also worth mentioning are Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey.
Maggie Astor contributed reporting.
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