Hyvä arvaus, mutta näyttäisi kyllä tulevan kauempaa kuin 100 metrin päästä, mikä on tuon miinan maksimikantama...
Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Juuri vaunun yläpuolella ampuu raketin vaunuun, raketin jättämä savuvana jää näkyviin?
Antares
Respected Leader
Venäjän mobilisaatiosta on puhuttu aikaisemminkin, tässä lisää armeijakunnan muodostamisesta - tavoite olisi 15 000 miestä elokuun puolen välin tienoilla (eli kahden viikon kuluttua), tosin tämän mukaan 5 500 olisi vasta koottu.
Kommenttien perusteella tämä olisi se sama porukka mistä ollut juttua jo aikaisemmin ja koulutuspaikka on Nizny Novgorodin lähistöllä. Viestien kommenteissa oli osuvan tuntuinen Michael Kofmanin arvaus:
This corps is quite possibly meant to be the parent organization for regional volunteer battalions.
Jokaisen oblastin on käsketty kokoamaan vapaaehtoisista joukkoja, oletettavasti nämä lähetettäisiin edelleen tämän saman koulutuskeskuksen käyttöön ja saman organisaation alle.
MUOKKAUS: selasin hieman taaksepäin, koska muistin että tästä porukasta on ollut juttua aikaisemmin. Ukraina on tiedottanut tästä 22.6. eli viisi viikkoa sitten (asiasta keskusteltu tällä foorumilla pari viikkoa sen jälkeen). Lainaan muistin virkistämiseksi mitä kirjoittivat tuolloin: LÄHDE
In Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine, the enemy forces have so far massed up to 4,000 manpower and up to 300 firepower units. This is not enough to launch an offensive operation toward Kyiv, but the formation of the 15,500-strong 3rd Army Corps based in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region, is underway in the Western Military District. It is possible that, if required, they could be involved in the attack on the Ukrainian capital.
This was announced in an interview with Ukrinform by Commander of the Kyiv Defense Group Oleksandr Pavliuk.
"Currently, along the state border of Ukraine in Bryansk and Kursk regions of Russia, there are up to three battalion tactical groups, a company tactical group with the armed forces of the Russian Federation, and up to three battalions of the Federal Service of the National Guard. Today, this group is not enough to conduct an offensive operation in the direction of Kyiv. Its main task is to cover the Russian-Ukrainian border. The total number of enemy groups in the said zone, taking into account the FSB border service of the Russian Federation, may include: up to 4,000 personnel and up to 300 firepower units," Pavliuk said.
In addition, according to the commander, in order to increase the number of troops and create favorable conditions for the offensive in the North-West Zone, the enemy continues to form the reserve and new military units.
The approximate deadline for completing formation of the 3rd Army Corps is August 15, 2022.
“It is possible that, if necessary, military units of the newly created army corps may be involved in the offensive on Kyiv," Pavliuk said.
The commander also noted that in the future, the enemy will continue to launch air and missile strikes, including with high-precision weapons, and retain the necessary set of troops near the state border to carry out restraining and assault operations in certain areas, including with the involvement of subversive and reconnaissance groups, while further fortifying their positions along the relevant section of the Russian-Ukrainian border.
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Kirjoittivat ennakoivansa että tämän porukan pitäisi olla valmiit liittymääni sotaan 15.8. Ei tietysti tiedetä mille rintamalle. Nyt on menty kuukausi tuon uutisen julkaisusta ja jos uskotaan uutisointia, 5 500 miestä on saatu kerättyä. Tarvetta olisi siis vielä 9 500 miehelle, jos tavoite on tosiaan tuo 15 000. Toisaalta alkuperäisessä uutisessa sanotaan 15 500. Elokuun puoliväli tarkoittaisi että porukkaa olisi muodostettu 1,5 - 2 kuukauden ajan.
Minä arvasin 5.7. kirjoitetussa viestissä että Mulinon perusteella porukkaa koottaisiin "6th Tank Brigade" tiloissa. Kuvassa näkyy kaksi muuta yksikköä, ne ovat: keltainen symboli "288th Artillery Brigade" ja näiden länsipuolella Tsentralnyy nimisessä kaupungissa sijaitsee "Flamethrower Battalion" eli TOS-1A raketinheittimien osasto. LÄHDE
Kommenttien perusteella tämä olisi se sama porukka mistä ollut juttua jo aikaisemmin ja koulutuspaikka on Nizny Novgorodin lähistöllä. Viestien kommenteissa oli osuvan tuntuinen Michael Kofmanin arvaus:
This corps is quite possibly meant to be the parent organization for regional volunteer battalions.
Jokaisen oblastin on käsketty kokoamaan vapaaehtoisista joukkoja, oletettavasti nämä lähetettäisiin edelleen tämän saman koulutuskeskuksen käyttöön ja saman organisaation alle.
MUOKKAUS: selasin hieman taaksepäin, koska muistin että tästä porukasta on ollut juttua aikaisemmin. Ukraina on tiedottanut tästä 22.6. eli viisi viikkoa sitten (asiasta keskusteltu tällä foorumilla pari viikkoa sen jälkeen). Lainaan muistin virkistämiseksi mitä kirjoittivat tuolloin: LÄHDE
In Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine, the enemy forces have so far massed up to 4,000 manpower and up to 300 firepower units. This is not enough to launch an offensive operation toward Kyiv, but the formation of the 15,500-strong 3rd Army Corps based in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region, is underway in the Western Military District. It is possible that, if required, they could be involved in the attack on the Ukrainian capital.
This was announced in an interview with Ukrinform by Commander of the Kyiv Defense Group Oleksandr Pavliuk.
"Currently, along the state border of Ukraine in Bryansk and Kursk regions of Russia, there are up to three battalion tactical groups, a company tactical group with the armed forces of the Russian Federation, and up to three battalions of the Federal Service of the National Guard. Today, this group is not enough to conduct an offensive operation in the direction of Kyiv. Its main task is to cover the Russian-Ukrainian border. The total number of enemy groups in the said zone, taking into account the FSB border service of the Russian Federation, may include: up to 4,000 personnel and up to 300 firepower units," Pavliuk said.
In addition, according to the commander, in order to increase the number of troops and create favorable conditions for the offensive in the North-West Zone, the enemy continues to form the reserve and new military units.
The approximate deadline for completing formation of the 3rd Army Corps is August 15, 2022.
“It is possible that, if necessary, military units of the newly created army corps may be involved in the offensive on Kyiv," Pavliuk said.
The commander also noted that in the future, the enemy will continue to launch air and missile strikes, including with high-precision weapons, and retain the necessary set of troops near the state border to carry out restraining and assault operations in certain areas, including with the involvement of subversive and reconnaissance groups, while further fortifying their positions along the relevant section of the Russian-Ukrainian border.
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Kirjoittivat ennakoivansa että tämän porukan pitäisi olla valmiit liittymääni sotaan 15.8. Ei tietysti tiedetä mille rintamalle. Nyt on menty kuukausi tuon uutisen julkaisusta ja jos uskotaan uutisointia, 5 500 miestä on saatu kerättyä. Tarvetta olisi siis vielä 9 500 miehelle, jos tavoite on tosiaan tuo 15 000. Toisaalta alkuperäisessä uutisessa sanotaan 15 500. Elokuun puoliväli tarkoittaisi että porukkaa olisi muodostettu 1,5 - 2 kuukauden ajan.
Minä arvasin 5.7. kirjoitetussa viestissä että Mulinon perusteella porukkaa koottaisiin "6th Tank Brigade" tiloissa. Kuvassa näkyy kaksi muuta yksikköä, ne ovat: keltainen symboli "288th Artillery Brigade" ja näiden länsipuolella Tsentralnyy nimisessä kaupungissa sijaitsee "Flamethrower Battalion" eli TOS-1A raketinheittimien osasto. LÄHDE
Viimeksi muokattu:
tulikomento
Supreme Leader
Vielä kun heittäisivät lihamyllyyn kaikki kokeneimmat jalkaväki-, tykistö- ja panssarikoulujen kouluttajat ja opettajat. Se olisi kova isku ryssän maavoimille kun kaikki kokeneet kouluttajat olisivat lannoitetta Ukrainan pelloilla.
tulikomento
Supreme Leader
Tässä menee Tuvaa kohti lentokoneellinen rahti kaksisatasia.
Tyrsky
Eversti
Muistatteko kun venäjä lähetti jo maaliskuun alussa kadettikoulun toisen vuosikurssin oppilaita rintamalle? Tämä kouluttajien työntäminen lihamyllyyn olisi oikeastaan aika odotettavissa olevaa ja Kremlin linjan mukaisten päättömien päätösten jatkumoa.
Alla vielä spoilerin sisään käärittynä kadettien rintamakomennukseen liittyvään uutiseen:
Uutisen aikaleima: 13:40 02.03.2022
Russia is sending cadets of military schools to the war in Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of the President's Office, has said.
"According to official reports, the Russians even throw cadets of military schools into battle. In particular, such information comes from the Serpukhov military school, where second year cadets were thrown into the war in Ukraine. This means that the entire powerful Russian army can no longer cope with Ukraine, the Ukrainian people and the Armed Forces. This means a disaster in terms of military command, because the cadets of the schools are not touched until the very last moment," Arestoych said at a briefing at the President's Office on Wednesday afternoon.
He added that Russia's attempts to attract the Belarusian army can also be attributed here.
"But so far there is no official data that the Belarusian army is taking part in hostilities against Ukraine. There are signals that are being rechecked, but the level of these signals does not yet allow us to talk about the participation of Belarusians," he said.
LÄHDE: https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/805437.html
Russia is sending cadets of military schools to the war in Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of the President's Office, has said.
"According to official reports, the Russians even throw cadets of military schools into battle. In particular, such information comes from the Serpukhov military school, where second year cadets were thrown into the war in Ukraine. This means that the entire powerful Russian army can no longer cope with Ukraine, the Ukrainian people and the Armed Forces. This means a disaster in terms of military command, because the cadets of the schools are not touched until the very last moment," Arestoych said at a briefing at the President's Office on Wednesday afternoon.
He added that Russia's attempts to attract the Belarusian army can also be attributed here.
"But so far there is no official data that the Belarusian army is taking part in hostilities against Ukraine. There are signals that are being rechecked, but the level of these signals does not yet allow us to talk about the participation of Belarusians," he said.
LÄHDE: https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/805437.html
Viimeksi muokattu:
Tää taitaa olla aika tuore uutinen. Arvauksia? Venäjän operoima Boeing 737.
Jaa DPR saa globaalia tunnustusta
Jaa DPR saa globaalia tunnustusta
Viimeksi muokattu:
Hemmo Paskiainen
Kapteeni
Ilmeisesti geolokattu paikassa 46.77059, 33.377298 Nova Kahkhovan padolle johtavalle tielle itäpuolella.
Padosta puheenollen, jos oletetaan, että Ukraina ei saisikaan vallattua Hersonin aluetta takaisin ja nykytilanne jäätyisi Venäjän eduksi, niin mitä Ukraina häviäisi siinä että räjäyttäisi tuon padon ja antaisi vedenpaisumuksen tärvellä alueen ja pilata myös Krimin vesihuollon? Asiasta voitaisiin varoittaa siviilejä etukäteen...
Antares
Respected Leader
Thomas Treiner tuumailee tätä "mysteeri top-attack -asetta":
A deeper dive into this munition: The trajectory and the top attack mode point to a US Army M93 Hornet wide-area anti-tank mine (or its russian copy PTKM-1R)... but the distance the munition flies seems to be more than 100m. It is not an BGM-71F TOW as it flies too slow for an ATGM and so far no country has announced that it deliverd TOW missiles to Ukraine. Another possibility is an undisclosed loitering munition that has an EFP warhead... or it is a XM204 wide-area top attack mine that the US Army is currently introducing to replace the M93.
PS: definitely not a SMArt or Bonus round as the trajectory or these two systems is different from the one we see here.
PS: Also not an NLAW in overfly top attack mode - as it is too slow and way above the NLAWs 1 m above target detonation point.
Poimin ketjun kommenteista muutaman (nämä ovat samalta kirjoittajalta):
- Agreed, the carrier platform came in mostly horizontally over an at least 200m flight path.
- Carrier almost disappears after the HEAT detonation.
- ~100 m/sec too slow for an ATGM.
- Switchblade 600 perhaps? It would be optimized to hit even in suboptimal targeting scenarios.
- Note how the 30m detonation height makes this suitable to take out targets in most urban environments, when the drone flies perpendicularly to the road grid to avoid early detection: it would have to fly above buildings.
- Complex, sub-optimal targeting scenario also consistent with Switchblade's doctrine of advanced computerized visual processing to avoid civilian casualties.
- My guess: Switchblade 600.
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Muissa kommenteissa aikaisemmin arvailtu Phoenix Ghost sekä Puolan valmistamia WARMATE-droneja.
A deeper dive into this munition: The trajectory and the top attack mode point to a US Army M93 Hornet wide-area anti-tank mine (or its russian copy PTKM-1R)... but the distance the munition flies seems to be more than 100m. It is not an BGM-71F TOW as it flies too slow for an ATGM and so far no country has announced that it deliverd TOW missiles to Ukraine. Another possibility is an undisclosed loitering munition that has an EFP warhead... or it is a XM204 wide-area top attack mine that the US Army is currently introducing to replace the M93.
PS: definitely not a SMArt or Bonus round as the trajectory or these two systems is different from the one we see here.
PS: Also not an NLAW in overfly top attack mode - as it is too slow and way above the NLAWs 1 m above target detonation point.
Poimin ketjun kommenteista muutaman (nämä ovat samalta kirjoittajalta):
- Agreed, the carrier platform came in mostly horizontally over an at least 200m flight path.
- Carrier almost disappears after the HEAT detonation.
- ~100 m/sec too slow for an ATGM.
- Switchblade 600 perhaps? It would be optimized to hit even in suboptimal targeting scenarios.
- Note how the 30m detonation height makes this suitable to take out targets in most urban environments, when the drone flies perpendicularly to the road grid to avoid early detection: it would have to fly above buildings.
- Complex, sub-optimal targeting scenario also consistent with Switchblade's doctrine of advanced computerized visual processing to avoid civilian casualties.
- My guess: Switchblade 600.
-
Muissa kommenteissa aikaisemmin arvailtu Phoenix Ghost sekä Puolan valmistamia WARMATE-droneja.
Enerhodarin ydinvoimala tarvitsee tietyn määrän vettä / veden korkeuden jäähdytykseen. Ei hyvä idea.
Antares
Respected Leader
Tämä mies seuraa tiiviisti (siltä vaikuttaa) venäjänkielisiä lähteitä ja foorumeita. Hänellä on tarkaksi osoittautuneita tietoja, ainakin jos uskotaan norjalaista The Lookout nimistä tiliä. Tili kertoo miehen nimeksi Konstantin Mashovets ja kehuu tietojen tarkkuutta.
Outlook of #Russian Airborne Forces #VDV - reform needed - large air assault ops impossible - too much light armor, not enough heavy - Il-76 need active protection - need to follow the US #Marines development - just one airborne div needed, the remaining should be heavier. If such opinions are discussed in #Russia, then the VDV in its current shape are shattered.
Yhteenveto miehen tuoreesta artikkelista hänen twitter-tililtään: LÄHDE
#Russian ops/ORBAT update
- 14 Spetsnaz Bde to set up 32 recce-sabotage groups
- 8-9 new BTGs from Estern MD to #Crimea
- 5 BTGs from 76 Airborne Div augmented with tanks
- VDV force may increase from 8,5k to 11k soldiers
- 19 MRDiv aug with T-90
- Nikolayevsk/Krivorog area: air surveillance increased: 45 UAV flights per day (up from 20/day)
- new (16) 203mm 2S7 arty near Radensk
- field airstrips for Ka-52/Mi-24 helos prepared near Chaplinka
- unloaded 18 2S4 heavy mortars in Crimea
- likely RU operation towards Nikolaev-Odesa-Transnistria or Krivorog-Zaporozhe-Dnipro
- #Kherson/Donbas: predominately D/LNR & Wagner forces
- only the forces near Izyum are from the RU Army (30 BTGs)
- reserves from #Belgorod move to the south to the coast
- #Kharkiv key reserve is 144 MRDiv. It remains on alert ready to start the offensive
Summary:
- RU capable of only one major operation (likely in the south)
- other directions only as tactical objectives
Suora linkki hänen pidempään artikkeliin:
https://realist.online/politika/arm...nakopichuje-desantni-sili-na-pivdni-ukrajini-
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Michael Kofmanin kommentit kirjoituksesta:
Note the post below, suggesting a redeployment of 8-9 Eastern MD BTGs from Donbas to Crimea. Russian forces are shifting units in anticipation of a UA counteroffensive in the south.
However, that deployment may not make defense of Kherson more practicable. With HIMARS dropping bridges, Russian ability to sustain forces west of the river will grow severely constrained. Hence EMD units may function as an operational reserve against a broader counteroffensive.
The war is likely entering an inflection point relative to the past several months, as UA looks to steadily isolate Kherson, generate momentum of its own, and press Russian forces west of the river where they're quite vulnerable. More thoughts on this subject in a bit.
Outlook of #Russian Airborne Forces #VDV - reform needed - large air assault ops impossible - too much light armor, not enough heavy - Il-76 need active protection - need to follow the US #Marines development - just one airborne div needed, the remaining should be heavier. If such opinions are discussed in #Russia, then the VDV in its current shape are shattered.
Yhteenveto miehen tuoreesta artikkelista hänen twitter-tililtään: LÄHDE
#Russian ops/ORBAT update
- 14 Spetsnaz Bde to set up 32 recce-sabotage groups
- 8-9 new BTGs from Estern MD to #Crimea
- 5 BTGs from 76 Airborne Div augmented with tanks
- VDV force may increase from 8,5k to 11k soldiers
- 19 MRDiv aug with T-90
- Nikolayevsk/Krivorog area: air surveillance increased: 45 UAV flights per day (up from 20/day)
- new (16) 203mm 2S7 arty near Radensk
- field airstrips for Ka-52/Mi-24 helos prepared near Chaplinka
- unloaded 18 2S4 heavy mortars in Crimea
- likely RU operation towards Nikolaev-Odesa-Transnistria or Krivorog-Zaporozhe-Dnipro
- #Kherson/Donbas: predominately D/LNR & Wagner forces
- only the forces near Izyum are from the RU Army (30 BTGs)
- reserves from #Belgorod move to the south to the coast
- #Kharkiv key reserve is 144 MRDiv. It remains on alert ready to start the offensive
Summary:
- RU capable of only one major operation (likely in the south)
- other directions only as tactical objectives
Suora linkki hänen pidempään artikkeliin:
https://realist.online/politika/arm...nakopichuje-desantni-sili-na-pivdni-ukrajini-
-
Michael Kofmanin kommentit kirjoituksesta:
Note the post below, suggesting a redeployment of 8-9 Eastern MD BTGs from Donbas to Crimea. Russian forces are shifting units in anticipation of a UA counteroffensive in the south.
However, that deployment may not make defense of Kherson more practicable. With HIMARS dropping bridges, Russian ability to sustain forces west of the river will grow severely constrained. Hence EMD units may function as an operational reserve against a broader counteroffensive.
The war is likely entering an inflection point relative to the past several months, as UA looks to steadily isolate Kherson, generate momentum of its own, and press Russian forces west of the river where they're quite vulnerable. More thoughts on this subject in a bit.
Antares
Respected Leader
Hyvin mielenkiintoista, jos totta: Venäjä saattaisi kokeilla käyttää siviilikoneita ilmatorjuntaohjusten valemaaleina kuten Azerbaijan teki vuoden 2020 sodassa Armeniaa vastaan.
Hattujen vaihdosta Moskovassa, kertonee jotain jostakin:
Artikkelin käännös: LÄHDE
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Colonel General Viktor Goremykin as Deputy Defense Minister - Head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces. The decree is published on the official portal of legal information.
Goremykin, now 63, joined the Main Personnel Directorate of the Defense Ministry in 2000, and in April 2009 he headed this department - that is, he led the personnel of the Ministry of Defense for more than 13 years.
Goremykin's predecessor as head of the Main Military-Political Directorate was Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko. At the end of May, a group of independent investigators, the Conflict Intelligence Team , reported that Zhidko had taken command of a group of Russian troops in the Donbass. This was not officially confirmed or denied, however, Zhidko was included in the US sanctions list.
Hattujen vaihdosta Moskovassa, kertonee jotain jostakin:
Artikkelin käännös: LÄHDE
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Colonel General Viktor Goremykin as Deputy Defense Minister - Head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces. The decree is published on the official portal of legal information.
Goremykin, now 63, joined the Main Personnel Directorate of the Defense Ministry in 2000, and in April 2009 he headed this department - that is, he led the personnel of the Ministry of Defense for more than 13 years.
Goremykin's predecessor as head of the Main Military-Political Directorate was Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko. At the end of May, a group of independent investigators, the Conflict Intelligence Team , reported that Zhidko had taken command of a group of Russian troops in the Donbass. This was not officially confirmed or denied, however, Zhidko was included in the US sanctions list.
- The Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces, according to official documents, is the central military-political control body that carries out military-patriotic work in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. It was created in 2018. The first head of the department, now State Duma deputy Andrei Kartapolov, stated that "the main goal of the military-political bodies being created is to form a statesman warrior - a reliable and devoted defender of the Fatherland, a bearer of the traditional spiritual and moral values of Russian society - statehood, spirituality and patriotism." The Main Military-Political Directorate (GlavPUR) existed in the Soviet army, but was disbanded in 1991 shortly before the collapse of the USSR.
Tyrsky
Eversti
Kaasuputken paineenlaskemisen erikoisoperaatio venäläisittäin ja örkkien mukaan kaasunjakelu tietysti jatkuu suunnitelmien mukaan. Tästä nousi kyllä mieleeni kysymys että kenen suunnitelmien mukaan ja ovatko dinosauruksen pieruja tästä putkesta ostavat asiakkaatkin tietoisia tästä suunnitelmasta? 
jos nyt oikein tulkitsin niin jossain päin tuolla punaisen ympyrän sisällä olisi tämä säästösäätöliekki ollut taivasta valaisemassa. Sijainti on siis tarkkuudeltaan 'suurin piirtein'-tasoa.
Isänmaan puolesta
Majuri
Professori arvioi Putinin vallan heikkenevän: Putin voi paeta vain julistamalla voiton Ukrainassa
Venäjältä tulee rajua tuomiopäivän propagandaa, mikä voi Timothy Snyderin mukaan kertoa myös valmistautumisesta valtataisteluun.
www.kauppalehti.fi
Loyd
Kenraali
Putte varmaan myöntää venäjän sankarin mitalin niin kuin Butchan riiviöille.
Aika sivistymätöntä porukkaa on Venäjän armeija. Ei tällaisia hirmutekoja ole nähty aikoihin. Ja tuollainen voi olla yleistä, nyt vain saatiin tapauksesta video.
Edited
Viimeksi muokattu:
Putinxyjlo
Eversti
Nojaa, ihan ISISin linjoilla ajavat. Samaa oli thenausea.com täynnään Checheniasta, molemmin puolin. Oksettavaa yrjöä kyllä. Tuo ihmispaske saa vielä ansionsa mukaan, uskotaan siihen.